The Commanders and Giants had a lackluster tie in Week 13. The Commanders are favorites and hosts this go-round. So, their quarterback might not be too busy. Conversely, Big Blue’s quarterback will likely have to drop back while in catch-up mode, and their defense might be on the field and defending the run much of the night. With that in mind, let’s break down our top three Commanders vs. Giants player props for Sunday Night Football Week 15.
Commanders vs. Giants Player Props: SNF Week 15
For a full list of Commanders vs. Giants player props and odds, check out our dedicated page for NFL player props.
Taylor Heinicke Under 212.5 Passing Yards (-120)
Taylor Heinicke carved the Giants up for 275 passing yards in their previous meeting in Week 13. Further, he had only one passing yard in overtime. So, taking Heinicke’s under for 212.5 passing yards might be uncomfortable. However, the game was an uncharacteristic outburst for Heinicke.
In fact, it was his second-highest passing yardage total this year, narrowly trailing the 279 passing yards he had in Week 8. Heinicke averages only 206.3 passing yards per game and has a median outcome of 201 passing yards this season, falling short of 212.5 passing yards in five of seven starts. Additionally, Heinicke has passed for fewer than 212.5 yards in four of the five games he’s won this season.
The Commanders are favorites in this NFC East rematch and love to lean on the run when they’re able. According to numberFire, in neutral game scripts since Week 8, they’ve attempted 153 passes and 173 rushes by non-quarterbacks. Fortunately, the Giants won’t provide much resistance. Per Football Outsiders, they’re 31st in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) since Week 8.
Washington is likely to lean on the run out of the gate and continue to do so as long as the game script is neutral or good. Since I expect the Commanders to win, I’m projecting them to pound the rock all game and love Heinicke’s under for 212.5 passing yards.
Where to bet: Taylor Heinicke Under 212.5 Passing Yards | -120 at BetMGM Sportsbook
Julian Love Over 7.5 Tackles + Assists (+100)
A run-heavy offensive attack from the Commanders would be perfect for safety Julian Love to pile up tackles. The fourth-year pro is always on the field and is a tackling machine. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he’s played 100% of New York’s defensive snaps in 11 of 13 games and played 91% of the defensive snaps once. Love is also a regular on special teams, awarding him another path to tackles.
Love’s sizable role has helped him record 107 tackles and assists this year. He’s had at least eight in his previous four games and six of his last seven. Moreover, Love’s underlying data is encouraging for his tackle outlook. Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades him as the eighth-best tackling safety out of 73 who’ve played at least 400 snaps this year and has credited him with only three missed tackles.
Love is also routinely aligned in the box, putting him in a position to tackle Washington’s running backs. According to PFF, he’s aligned 244 snaps in the box, second only to his 368 at free safety. Love had 10 tackles plus assists in the first meeting against the Commanders, and I expect him to exceed 7.5 again this time.
Where to bet: Julian Love Over 7.5 Tackles + Assists | +100 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Daniel Jones Over 27.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Daniel Jones, also known as Vanilla Vick, is a genuine rushing threat. He’s averaged 42.2 rushing yards per game and rumbled for 71 against the Commanders in Week 13. Sadly, Jones’s median outcome this year is 26 rushing yards, putting him a pinch short of his prop.
Nevertheless, I like Jones’s odds of eclipsing his yardage prop. The Giants use Jones on designed runs, giving him opportunities to chip away at his total. However, I’m most encouraged by his scrambling ability, especially since I expect the Giants to trail and be forced into comeback mode.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, Jones has scrambled 43 times this year. In addition, he’s averaged a blistering 7.0 yards per carry on his scrambles. So, 301 of Jones’s 548 rushing yards this year have come on scrambles. Sure, Jones can best 27.5 rushing yards on designed runs. But the scrambling is likely his golden ticket for going over 27.5 rushing yards.
Where to bet: Daniel Jones Over 27.5 Rushing Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
