The Commanders are set to face the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, Sep 24. The game is scheduled for 1:00 ET while airing on CBS. Buffalo enters this game as 6.5-point favorites with the total set at 43.5. How will this one play out? Let’s dive into the Commanders vs. Bills predictions and player props below.
Commanders vs. Bills Odds
- Spread: Bills -6.5
- Total 43.5
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Sep 24
- Time: 1:00 ET
- Location: FedEx Field, Landover MD
- TV: CBS
Bills Betting Trends
- Over their last five games, the Bills have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.
- In their last ten games away from home, the Bills have a straight up record of 6-4 while going 4-6 vs. the spread. The team averaged 25 points per game in this stretch.
- Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Buffalo has an ATS mark of 4-6 while going 8-2 straight up.
Commanders Betting Trends
- In their last five games, the Commanders have an over/under record of 0-5 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.
- In their last ten games home from home, the Commanders have a straight up record of 6-3-1 while going 6-4 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 21 points per game in these contests.
- Washington has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three games.
Will the Bills Make it Happen on the Road?
Heading into week 3, the Bills are 3rd in the AFC-East on a record of 1-1. When comparing their mark to other teams in the AFC, they are 8th. So far, they have gone 0-1 on the road and 1-0 at home. So far, Buffalo has gone into all of their games as the favorite and have a 1-0 ATS record at home compared to 0-1 on the road vs. the spread. Buffalo’s average scoring margin sits at 11 points per game.
Buffalo is looking to string together another win after taking down the Raiders 38-10 in their last game. The Bills covered the spread, as they were favored by 7.5 against the Raiders. The game had an over/under line of 47 points, and both teams went beyond it, scoring a combined total of 48 points.
Buffalo’s offense generated 450 total yards against the Raiders. On third downs, the Bills managed a conversion rate of 53.8%. James Cook led the team in rushing with 123 yards, while Josh Allen passed for 274 yards.
The Bills defense comes into the game with rankings of 9th in tackles for loss and 8th in sacks. Their opponents have been scoring 16 points per game and gaining 264.5 yards (per game).
Do the Commanders Have a Shot at a Home Win?
As we enter week 3, Washington is in 3rd place in the NFC East with an overall record of 2-0. In the NFC, they are currently in 8th place. The Commanders’ scoring margin for the season is currently +3. This has contributed to their ATS record of 1-1.
The Commanders are coming off a win in their last game where they beat the Broncos with a score of 35-33. While picking up the win, the Commanders also covered the spread as 3.5-point underdogs. The team, in conjunction with Denver, combined for 68 points, surpassing the over/under line of 38.5.
Against the Broncos, the Commanders ran the ball 23 times, with Brian Robinson Jr. as the primary rusher, accumulating 87 yards. Sam Howell attempted 39 passes, amassing 299 yards and a passer rating of 108.
The Commanders’ defense comes into the game with rankings of 2nd in tackles for loss and 1st in sacks. Their opponents have been scoring 24.5 points per game and gaining 304.5 yards (per game).
Commanders vs. Bills Player Prop
My top NFL player prop for the week involves Buffalo RB James Cook.
The Bills are positioned as 6.5-point road favorites against the Washington Commanders, suggesting favorable game flow for Cook to surpass 53.5 rushing yards with ease.
In the first two weeks, the Washington Commanders haven’t truly been challenged on the ground. However, in Week 1, Cardinals’ running back James Conner managed to convert 14 carries into 62 yards against them, even with a less-than-stellar offensive line.
Cook recently showcased his prowess, delivering a stellar performance against the Las Vegas Raiders with 17 carries resulting in 123 rushing yards. For this season, he boasts an impressive average of 5.8 yards per carry.
Given these stats, it’s reasonable to expect the second-year pro to achieve more than 54 rushing yards without much difficulty.
The Prop: James Cook over 53.5 rushing yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Commanders vs. Bills Predictions
In Week 1, Bills QB Josh Allen had an off game at the New York Jets. However, he bounced back in Week 2 against the Las Vegas Raiders, and I anticipate that momentum will carry into his road game against the Commanders.
Washington has been fortunate; they could have been 0-2 if not for two fourth-quarter comebacks against teams of questionable caliber. With the Bills regaining their form, I’m confident in selecting them to deliver the Commanders their first defeat and cover the -6.5 spread while on the road.
The Pick: Bills -6.5 | -110 at Fanduel Sportsbook
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