When you think “states with a ton of wealth,” odds are Arkansas isn’t the first that comes to mind. Hell, it might not even make the top 50.
And yet, Arkansas is where Walmart was born (we’re gonna guess the heirs to founder Sam Walton aren’t regular customers). It’s where Dallas Cowboys’ billionaire owner Jerry Jones was raised. And it’s where college football’s most profitable team in 2021 resides — at least to this point in the season.
Yep, the Arkansas Razorbacks — who count Jones among their alumni — are the only team waltzing into October with a perfect 4-0 ATS record. We dig into Arkansas’ ongoing moneymaking success in this week’s College Football Point Spread Report. Additionally, we reveal the quintet of teams sitting at 3-0 ATS, provide details on conference standings from a betting perspective, examine how Top 25 squads are performing against the number, and update Over/Under results in this thorough look at college football betting trends.
Reminder: As noted last week, the College Football Point Spread Report considers results from FBS vs. FBS matchups only.
All ATS and Over/Under stats are reflective of VegasInsider.com’s final consensus lines.
Conference ATS Records
| Conference | ATS Record | Percentage |
| Big Ten | 28-20-2 | 56.0% |
| SEC | 25-21-1 | 53.2% |
| ACC | 22-20-1 | 51.2% |
| Big 12 | 14-16 | 47.6% |
| Pac-12 | 18-21 | 45.0% |
| Mountain West | 20-17-1 | 52.6% |
| Independents | 14-13 | 51.9% |
| Conference USA | 20-19-3 | 47.6% |
| AAC | 22-20-1 | 45.2% |
| Sun Belt | 14-14 | 50.0% |
| MAC | 13-23 | 36.1% |
Living High on the ’Hogs
It’s a sentiment shared by sharp and public bettors alike: “We don’t care how our teams cover the number, just that they do.” At the same time, there isn’t a bettor on the planet who doesn’t enjoy those rare never-in-doubt, wire-to-wire covers. Keeps the ulcers at bay.
Well, Arkansas backers enjoyed a rather stress-free September. Since opening the season with a 21-point win over Rice as a 20-point home favorite, the Razorbacks have easily beaten the oddsmakers’ projections. Sandwiched between two double-digit upset wins over Texas (40-21 as a 6-point underdog) and Texas A&M (20-10 as a 4.5-point underdog) was a 45-10 thrashing of Georgia Southern (as 23-point chalk).
As Arkansas fans (and their bank accounts) can confirm, this isn’t some mini-run of spread-covering success, either. Since the start of last season, the Razorbacks have cashed in 11 of their last 14 games.
So what does an 11-3 ATS run buy you? Apparently, not a lot of confidence from oddsmakers, who have the eighth-ranked Razorbacks as a consensus 18.5-point underdog at No. 2 Georgia (4-0, 3-1 ATS) on Saturday.
While Arkansas stands alone at 4-0 ATS, they’re not the only team that remains perfect versus the number. Five other schools — Penn State, Bowling Green, Texas-San Antonio, Rutgers, and Kentucky — are 3-0 ATS in FBS-specific games. Also, Cincinnati (2-0 ATS), Ole Miss (2-0 ATS), and Wake Forest (2-0-1 ATS) have yet to burn bettors.
Among that group, Bowling Green is the most interesting. First off, the Falcons scored one of the biggest upsets of the season last week, knocking off Minnesota 14-10 as a 31-point road underdog. Also, they reside in the Mid-American Conference, which ranks dead last among conferences in terms of spread-cover winning percentage. Even including Bowling Green’s unblemished spread record, the MAC is 13-23 ATS (36.1%).
Big Ten, SEC Continue To Be Money
Five of the remaining nine ATS unbeatens hail from two conferences: the Big Ten (Penn State and Rutgers) and SEC (Arkansas, Kentucky, and Ole Miss). So it probably doesn’t qualify as “breaking news” to report that those two conferences have delivered the best return on investment.
The Big Ten (including conference games) is 28-20-2 ATS, which equates to a 56% spread-cover rate. Five teams — Penn State and Rutgers (both 3-0 ATS), and Iowa Michigan, and Nebraska (all 3-1 ATS) — have accounted for 15 of those 28 ATS wins.
The SEC, which checks in at 25-21-1 ATS (53.2%), is similarly top-heavy. Arkansas, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Georgia, along with Alabama and LSU (both 2-1 ATS), have combined to cash in 17 of 20 FBS-specific contests. That leaves the rest of the league at 8-18-1 ATS — or what we like to call “MAC territory.”
Speaking of the little-conference-that-can’t, the MAC is home to 25% of the 16 squads that are 0-3 ATS in FBS contests: Akron, Ball State, Kent State, and Ohio. (Mark your calendars for 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, folks, as that’s when Akron (+9) hosts Ohio. It’s also when Bowling Green takes its perfect ATS record to Kent State … as a 16.5-point road underdog.)
The dozen other teams that sit at 0-3 ATS: Clemson and Miami, Fla. (ACC); Oklahoma and Kansas (Big 12); Indiana (Big Ten); Southern Miss and Rice (Conference USA); San Jose State and New Mexico (Mountain West); Utah (Pac-12); and Tennessee and Missouri (SEC). Also, Central Florida and TCU (both 0-2 ATS), along with Middle Tennessee State (0-2-1 ATS), have yet to cash
Cashing In On The Top 25
This week’s Top 25 contingent has produced solid overall results at the betting counter, combining for a 52-31-2 ATS mark in FBS vs. FBS contests. Specifically, top-10 teams have helped purchase a bunch of fancy dinners, going 22-12 ATS (64.7%) — and that’s despite No. 6 Oklahoma’s 0-3 ATS record!
It should surprise you not at all to learn that the Big Ten (five) and SEC (seven) occupy nearly half of the Top 25 spots. Nor should it surprise you that those dozen schools have been gold for bettors — we’re talking 29-13-1 ATS (67.4%). The rest of the Top 25 is 23-18-1 ATS.
How Low Can You Go?
Points continue to be at a premium in college football, as the Under won out yet again in Week 4, going 32-26. For the season, the Under is cashing at a 56.4% rate (89 Overs, 115 Unders).
Only five teams have hurdled the total in each of their games: Marshall, Pitt, Rice, and Tulsa are 3-0 to the Over, while Cincinnati is 2-0. Conversely, 17 schools have flown low in all of their FBS-specific contests, with Iowa, Purdue, Nebraska and Texas A&M posting 4-0 Under records.
In Week 5, two matchups share low-total honors: Michigan-Wisconsin and Troy-South Carolina have a consensus total of 43.5 points. On the high side, the much-anticipated SEC clash between No. 1 Alabama and No. 12 Ole Miss—which features the top two Heisman Trophy candidates—is projected to be a doozy, with a consensus total of 79.5.
College Football Over/Under Results:
Overall: 89-115 (56.4%)
Week 4: 26-32
Week 3: 26-26
Week 2: 22-23
Week 0/1: 15-34
