It all comes down to this. The NBA Finals are here, and you better believe our Celtics vs Warriors player props are here as well.
The Celtics were able to overcome a big deficit in Game 1 thanks to a massive fourth quarter. They outscored the Warriors by 24 points in the final frame, propelling them to a 120-108 victory. Can they grab another upset and take a 2-0 lead back to Boston?
Let’s dive into our top Celtics vs Warriors player props for Game 2. We’ll feature a pair of value-based player props from both squads.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 10 a.m. ET on June 5.
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Celtics vs Warriors Player Props
Boston Celtics: PF Jayson Tatum
The prop: 39.5 points + rebounds + assists
The odds: Over -125/Under -110
The Celtics were able to win Game 1 despite a lackluster performance from Tatum. That’s an outstanding sign for Boston moving forward. Its star player shot a dreadful 3-of-17 from the field (1-5 on 3-pointers) while finishing with a measly 12 points. For perspective, that was Tatum’s third-lowest scoring output of the postseason. He was still able to contribute in other areas, posting 13 assists and five rebounds. The bottom line: his scoring should bounce back in Game 2.
Tatum has been held below 20 points three previous times this postseason, and he’s responded with an average of 33.3 points in the following contest. That’s nearly enough to hit the over on his current PRA prop without factoring in any production in the peripheral categories. The Warriors do have one of the best defenses in the league, but Tatum is simply not going to shoot below 20% from the field very often. He’s a prime buy-low target in Game 2.
Boston Celtics: C Robert Williams
The prop: 6.5 rebounds
The odds: Over +105/Under -140
Williams was an important part of the Celtics’ league-best defense during the regular season, but he is clearly banged up at the moment. He was limited to just 24.2 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Warriors, and the Celtics were outscored when he was on the floor. The Celtics posted a Net Rating of +25 with Derrick White on the court at +14 with Payton Pritchard, so both players should continue to eat into Williams’ playing time.
If he continues to play reduced minutes, it’s going to be hard for Williams to hit the over on his current rebounding prop. He’s logged six rebounds or fewer in three straight games, and the Warriors are a quality rebounding squad despite their size. They ranked eighth in team rebound rate during the regular season, and they’ve only improved in that area with the inclusion of Kevon Looney. The Under on 6.5 boards has been juiced up to -145, but I still think that number provides value.
Golden State Warriors: SG Jordan Poole
The prop: 19.5 points + rebounds + assists
The odds: Over +100/Under -135
Poole has been one of the breakout stars of the postseason. He essentially played the Steph Curry role while Curry was out with an injury, and he’s continued to provide excellent scoring punch off the bench. He was hyper-efficient as a scorer vs. the Mavericks, averaging 16.4 points while shooting 63.6 percent across five games.
However, the Warriors’ defense takes a severe hit with Poole on the floor. They’ve allowed an additional +2.4 points per 100 possessions with Poole on the court during the postseason, and he has routinely been hunted by opposing defenses. He rates out as one of the worst individual defenders in a variety of situations, and the Celtics were licking their chops when he was on the court in Game 1. In Poole’s 25 minutes, the Warriors were outscored by a whopping -19 points.
With that in mind, it’s reasonable to expect Poole’s role to decrease moving forward. He’s a fantastic scorer, but the team already has plenty of scoring punch from Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Andrew Wiggins. Defense is the more important priority from Poole’s spot in the rotation, so guys like Gary Payton II and Otto Porter Jr. are arguably a better fit. I’m willing to roll the dice on Poole’s Unders in Game 2, and I will likely continue for the duration of the series.
Golden State Warriors: C Kevon Looney
The prop: 8.5 rebounds
The odds: Over -130/Under +100
The emergence of Looney is another reason why Poole is less important in this series. Looney was limited to just 25.3 minutes in Game 1, but he was one of their best players in terms of Net Rating. Looney has played closer to 30 minutes per game of late, so I expect him to see a few additional minutes on Sunday.
Looney’s best skill is his rebounding ability. The Warriors’ offensive rebound rate has increased by a ridiculous +6.3 percent with Looney on the floor during the postseason, and he pulled down six offensive rebounds in Game 1. Giving an elite offense like the Warriors extra opportunities is a dangerous proposition.
Looney averaged 10.6 rebounds over 28.0 minutes per game vs. the Mavericks, and he’s secured at least nine boards in five of his past seven games. This line is a bit too low, so I’ll roll the dice on the over at -130.
