Calgary Flames vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Player Props, Picks and Predictions – Thursday, Mar. 07

Feb 17, 2024; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Detroit Red Wings left wing Lucas Raymond (23) controls the puck against the Calgary Flames during the first period at Scotiabank Saddledome.
Image Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

We have your Calgary Flames vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Calgary Flames hit the road to face the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Calgary Flames (30-26-5) are set to face off against the Tampa Bay Lightning (33-24-6) in an exciting NHL matchup. With both teams eager to secure a win to bolster their playoff aspirations, this game promises to be a high-stakes encounter.

Calgary Flames vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Odds Info

Moneyline: Calgary Flames +130 (PointsBet) / Tampa Bay Lightning -155 (Bet365)

Puck Line: -1.5 – Calgary Flames -185 (DraftKings) / Tampa Bay Lightning +154 (DraftKings)

Total: 6.5 – -115 (Bet365) / -105 (Bet365)

Game Info

Date: Thursday, Mar. 07

Time: 07:00 PM

Location: Amalie Arena – Tampa, FL


Calgary Flames Betting Trends

  • On the road this season, the Calgary Flames have 14 wins and 16 losses.
  • As the underdog this season, the Calgary Flames have 16 wins and 16 losses.
  • This season, the Calgary Flames have hit 35 overs and 26 unders.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Trends

  • At home this season, the Tampa Bay Lightning have 19 wins and 12 losses.
  • As the favorite this season, the Tampa Bay Lightning have 22 wins and 15 losses.
  • This season, the Tampa Bay Lightning have hit 31 overs and 32 unders.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

Over the last two seasons, the Calgary Flames and Tampa Bay Lightning have faced off three times, with the Flames emerging victorious in two of those encounters while the Lightning claimed one win. These matchups occurred between November 2022 and December 2023, showcasing a consistent trend where the home team secured all three victories. When it came to betting statistics, Calgary covered the spread in two games, whereas Tampa Bay did so once. The over/under betting results leaned towards the under, which hit twice, compared to the over hitting just once. In terms of game performance, the Flames and Lightning were quite competitive, with the total score across all three games being 15 for Calgary and 9 for Tampa Bay. The Flames showed a stronger offensive presence in the most recent game, with a higher shots on goal count (26 to 24) and more even-strength goals (4 to 2). The Lightning, however, had a higher number of shots on goal in their single win, outshooting the Flames 40 to 24.

The most recent game between the two teams took place on December 16, 2023, where the Calgary Flames defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning with a final score of 4-2. The Flames demonstrated a solid defensive effort, blocking 16 shots and delivering 20 hits. The Lightning matched the physicality with 20 hits of their own and surpassed the Flames with 20 blocked shots. Calgary’s goaltender, Dan Vladar, had an impressive save percentage of 0.939, stopping 31 out of 33 shots, while Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy saved 22 out of 26 shots, resulting in a save percentage of 0.846. The Flames also had a slight edge in faceoffs, winning 35.7% compared to the Lightning’s 64.3%. The game saw the Flames’ offense come alive in the second period with three goals, and despite a third-period rally by the Lightning, Calgary secured the win with a final goal in the third period.

Calgary Flames vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Predictions

The Flames are entering the game on a 1-game losing streak, looking to regain the form that saw them win 4 of their last 5 games. Calgary’s offense has been led by center Blake Coleman, who tops the team with 25 goals, while center Nazem Kadri has been a key playmaker with 32 assists and 54 points. The Flames will need their top scorers to penetrate the Lightning’s defense, which has been inconsistent at times this season. Calgary’s own defensive efforts will be crucial as they face a Lightning team that boasts a potent offensive threat.

Tampa Bay, currently on a 1-game winning streak, is aiming to climb higher in the Eastern Conference standings. The Lightning’s success has been largely due to the outstanding play of right wing Nikita Kucherov, who leads the team with 38 goals, 67 assists, and 105 points. The Lightning’s offense ranks among the best in the league, and they’ll be looking to exploit the Flames’ defensive vulnerabilities. However, Tampa Bay’s defense has also shown some weaknesses, which Calgary’s attackers will be keen to exploit.

This matchup features a compelling battle between the pipes, with both goaltenders playing pivotal roles for their respective teams. The game also presents intriguing player matchups, including the offensive duel between Kucherov and Kadri. With both teams fighting for a stronger position in the playoff race, expect a fiercely contested game with both sides pushing hard for the win. Special teams could play a decisive role, and the team that capitalizes on power-play opportunities may ultimately tip the scales in their favor.

Calgary Flames vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Pick

Given the current form and the historical head-to-head statistics, the Tampa Bay Lightning moneyline bet is the more compelling choice. The Lightning have the home-ice advantage, which has proven to be a significant factor in past meetings between these two teams, with the home team winning all three encounters over the last two seasons. Additionally, Tampa Bay’s offensive firepower, led by Nikita Kucherov, is likely to challenge the Flames’ defense, which has shown some inconsistency. The Lightning’s recent performance, including a 1-game winning streak and a strong showing in their last five games, suggests they have the momentum to secure a victory in this matchup.

While the Flames have been competitive and have a solid road record, the Lightning’s ability to capitalize on power-play opportunities could be the deciding factor, especially considering Calgary’s penalty kill has been less than stellar. Furthermore, Tampa Bay’s recent trends, including a higher win percentage as the favorite this season, indicate that they are well-positioned to cover the moneyline. The combination of home-ice advantage, offensive prowess, and favorable betting trends makes the Tampa Bay Lightning the prudent pick for this game.

The Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning -155. (Bet365)

Calgary Flames vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Picks

Here are the players who have hit over their current prop line in at least 7 of their last 10 games.

Calgary Flames

Player Name Prop Line Over Rate Over Odds Under Odds Last 10 Average Projection
Nazem Kadri Points 0.5 7/10 -166 +130 1.1 1.08

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Name Prop Line Over Rate Over Odds Under Odds Last 10 Average Projection
Nikita Kucherov Assists 0.5 8/10 -238 +180 1.1 1.09
Brandon Hagel Points 0.5 9/10 -175 +135 1.2 1.18
Brayden Point Shots On Goal 2.5 8/10 -140 +110 3.6 3.56
Brandon Hagel Assists 0.5 7/10 +120 -150 0.9 0.87
Steven Stamkos Shots On Goal 2.5 8/10 -125 -105 2.9 2.83