The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins are two of only six undefeated teams left. They both have some impressive wins in this young season. Buffalo owns easy wins over the Rams and Titans. Miami easily beat the Patriots before recording an incredible comeback against the Ravens last week.
The Bills are Dolphins are two of the best teams in the AFC, and they aren’t likely to lose many games between the two of them. These divisional matchups against each other are going to go a long way in who wins the AFC East this season.
In this article, I’ll break down the odds for this game and you’ll find my favorite Bills vs. Dolphins predictions.
Bills vs. Dolphins Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | -5.5 (-110) | -230 | O 52.5 (-110) |
| @ Dolphins | +5.5 (-110) | +195 | U 52.5 (-110) |
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook as of 4 p.m. ET on Sep. 22.
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: New Miami Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
- TV: CBS
Bills vs. Dolphins Trends
Let’s take a look at some relevant betting trends for the Bills vs. Dolphins:
- Miami enters this game with a 2-0 ATS record in 2022.
- Buffalo also boasts a 2-0 ATS record this season.
- The Bills are covering by a league-high 21.5 points per game.
- As of Thursday afternoon, 79% of the bets and 87% of the handle were on Buffalo -5.5 spread.
- DraftKings also reports that 77% of the bets and 77% of the handle is on over 52.5 points.
- The Dolphins own a 1-1 over/under record this season.
- Buffalo brings a 1-1 over/under record into this game.
Pressure vs. Tua Tagovailoa
The Bills are an extremely interesting defense. They’re pressuring opposing quarterbacks 26% of the time, which ranks 13th in the NFL. They’re only blitzing 7.8% of the time, though, which is the second-lowest rate of any team in the league.
Tagovailoa is where this gets a bit interesting. He’s seen mixed results when pressured this season. Through 2 games, he’s completed 11 of 19 passes for 137 yards and 1 touchdown under pressure. Overall, it isn’t anything to worry about, but it also isn’t elite by any stretch of the imagination
AFC Players of the Week! (Week 2)@Tua | @JaylenWatson12 | @MannBraden pic.twitter.com/9RiEA2Y8hn
— NFL (@NFL) September 21, 2022
That said, Tagovailoa has been outstanding when he isn’t blitzed. Pro Football Focus (PFF) states he’s completed 40 of 55 passes for 520 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions when he isn’t blitzed this season.
There is an obvious correlation that teams get more pressure when they blitz, so it won’t be great for the young quarterback if Buffalo can get pressure without sending extra players. With that being said, Tagovailoa has found plenty of success this season, and I expect him to continue that in arguably the most important matchup for the season for Miami.
Buffalo Offense
Buffalo has arguably the best offense in the NFL. They’re leading the league with 36 points per game while ranking second in points per play (0.585). The Bills haven’t punted with Josh Allen in at quarterback this season. That’s pretty crazy if you think about it. Their first punt came against Tennesee once Case Keenum entered the game.
Remember, this doesn’t mean the Bills scored on all of their possessions. They’ve turned the ball over multiple times and failed to convert a fourth down. This shows that they are always in a solid position for offensive success.
lets not forget how Josh Allen has done against Miami:
7-1(lost 1st game, won last 7)
2,410 total yards and 25 TD's
Avg 34 points a game— Howard WGR (@hsimon62) September 23, 2022
This is a situation where I believe Miami has a high-end defense, but that may not matter. The Bills have flashed the ability to score against any team in the NFL. The Ravens dominated this Miami defense in Week 2 and could struggle with similar problems against Buffalo this week.
Bills vs. Dolphins Predictions
Both teams have strong defenses, but the NFL is a league geared more toward offense. Both sides have elite playmakers, and their defenses aren’t going to be able to slow them down.
Josh Allen will continue his case for MVP this week, while Tua Tagovailoa continues to prove that he’s a high-end starter in the NFL. The big-play ability for both teams is also the key, as they each have the potential to score on only one play at any given time.
This game should turn into a shootout in Miami, and the over is the most appealing bet in this contest.
Pick: Over 52.5 total points | -110 at Tipico Sportsbook