The MLB 2023 season is at its halfway point, and it appears we have a two-team race AL Central — also known as the “somebody’s gotta win” division. Despite neither holding a winning record at the All-Star break, the Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins are in a dead heat for the division title.
The Twins are currently -175 favorites to claim the crown, according to BetMGM.
Join us as we dive deep into a predictive analysis of what the second half of the season holds for this division.
Guardians Mid-Season Surge
The Cleveland Guardians, despite a .500 record at the season’s halfway point (45-45), have managed to position themselves at the top of the AL Central, 0.5 games ahead of the Twins.
Their standout third baseman and sole All-Star representative, José Ramírez, has shown impressive talent this season. Ramirez currently holds the 18th best batting average in the league at .289 and the 19th best OPS (.870). The slugger shows no signs of slowing down either as the all-star break comes to an end. First baseman Josh Naylor, although overlooked for the All-Star Game, is also leading the Guardians with a .305 average and 11 home runs.
The team’s young pitching staff including Aaron Civale and Tanner Bibee have stepped up amidst ace Shane Bieber’s struggle to find form. The Guardians 13-7 record going into the all star break is a big part of their midseason surge. If Civale and Bibee can keep up their respective ERA’s of 2.56 and 3.34, then a division win becomes much more in the picture.
With some favorable plus money odds of +150 at BetMGM, Cleveland might just be the go-to pick for an underdog to win the AL Central.
Minnesotas’ Strikeout Problem
Even though the Twins are still -175 favorites at BetMGM to win the AL Central, three consecutive losses going into the all-star break don’t inspire much confidence. That is on top of the fact that the Twins lead the majors with a whopping 916 strikeouts, which is 47 ahead of the next closest team.
Since the Twins are striking out so incredibly much, it would make sense that they currently rank 25th in batting average and 22nd in OPS to back up all of those whiffs at the plate. A big piece of the puzzle is Carlos Correa, Minnesota’s marquee signing of the offseason. The former Astro is currently batting .225 with 11 home runs and a .700 OPS. That is just simply not enough if you pair that with Byron Buxton’s .208 AVG and .736 OPS.
Even with their two main sluggers struggling so mightily, the Twins still rank eighth in home runs, so perhaps both of them getting hot at the opportune time is the answer? Either way, Minnesota cannot ride on the coattails of standout pitchers Sonny Gray and Bailey Ober, who both boast sub 3.00 ERA’s. Even the back half of the rotation including Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan have ERA’s sub 4.00.
AL Central Winner Pick
The Guardians are firing on all cylinders, getting into the synergy of their offense and pitching while the Twins continue to fade. Count on the Guardians to not only win the AL Central but do it convincingly over a struggling Twins offense that doesn’t look to find its stride any time soon.
Where to bet: Guardians to Win AL Central | +150 at BetMGM