Will Aaron Rodgers Throw An Interception Week 1? What Does The Data Say?

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The Green Bay Packers open up the season with the New Orleans Saints in a 4:25 EST game in New Orleans. The Packers start the season with what should be their best receiver group in recent memory, with their returning receivers all gaining experience, the addition of Amari Rodgers in the draft, and the addition of Randall Cobb in free agency. I think this means that we could see the ball distributed a bit more than it was last year.

Does Aaron Rodgers Have Interception Trends?

Rodgers has hit the over on his interceptions just four times last year out of the 16 games, meaning that on the surface, we should be leaning toward the under against the Saints in week one, but we need to do some more research on the particular situation. We often see people look at just one number and make bets based on this, but Vegas can see this singular number as well, and we aren’t “getting it in good” making bets like this. We need to take a deeper dive to learn when those overs DID hit and whether or not the Saints can recreate these situations.

Last year, Rodgers threw interceptions vs. Tampa Bay (2), Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Tennessee. On the surface, there isn’t anything about these teams that they have in common, but I would suggest that there was one common thing, especially when we look at Tampa Bay specifically.

Rodgers played four games where a sack was not allowed, and he threw 0 picks in those four games. This, to me, suggests we want to target the under against teams that cannot get pressure on Rodgers.

The Saints are PFF’s 8th best-rated defensive line heading into the season, and I think this would qualify as a tough matchup for Rodgers from that perspective. For reference, the Bucs were the best defense that Rodgers played last year, and he was abysmal in that game relative to every other game on the schedule, and that is likely the trend to look for. The Saints are also one of the best playmaking secondaries in the NFL, with 18 interceptions last season in 16 games.

The Pick:

Aaron Rodgers has thrown just 11 interceptions in the last three full seasons, and there is no reason to believe regression is bound to hit. At even odds, you have to roll with the “no” here. That being said, the Saints will be a tough matchup in this game, and I would have the true probability around 40% for Rodgers to throw a pick here.

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