The Monday Night Football contest between the Washington Football Team and Seattle Seahawks awards us one more chance to make some dough correctly selecting Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Week 12. First, however, if you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, have no fear.
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Monday Night Football of Week 12.
Alex Collins UNDER 43.5 Rushing Yards
Alex Collins is the leading rusher for the Seahawks. However, that’s relative, and he’s not lighting the world on fire. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the veteran running back is averaging only 42.3 rushing yards per game.
Further, his playing time cratered last week. Collins played only 37% of Seattle’s offensive snaps in Week 11, tying for the team lead with DeeJay Dallas. It was Collins’ lowest snap share since Week 3. Further, he’s rushed the ball only precisely 10 times in each of the last three games.
Collins has bested 43.5 rushing yards only one time in his last four games, rushing for 44 yards in Week 8. In addition, he has a possibly tricky matchup and is supported by a below-average run-blocking team. According to Football Outsiders, the Football Team is 11th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Additionally, Seattle’s offensive line is ranked 19th in Adjusted Line Yards. Finally, Seattle is ranked 23rd in run blocking at Pro Football Focus.
So, summing it up, Collins is a mediocre back, sharing backfield duties in an offense that’s below-average at run blocking, facing a potentially challenging matchup. In totality, that sounds like a recipe for Collins rushing for under 43.5 yards this week.
Gerald Everett OVER 22.5 Receiving Yards
The Seahawks have a considerably easier path to offensive success through the air against the Football Team. Washington is 30th in pass defense DVOA. Obviously, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are the top two options in Seattle’s passing attack. However, Gerald Everett has carved out a valuable role behind them.
In fact, according to Pro Football Focus, in the last three games Everett has played with Russell Wilson (Week 3, Week 10, and Week 11), he is third in routes (87) and receiving yards (154), second in targets (17), and first in receptions (16). He also has an average depth of target of only 4.2 yards downfield in those games, which is important because it’s a stylistic fit for this matchup.
According to Sharp Football Stats, Washington allows the 12th-lowest average explosive pass rate (eight percent) this year. So, Everett’s usage as a shallow target that does damage after the catch should aid him in garnering attention from Wilson this week. In addition, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Washington is coughing up 58.9 receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Finally, the pace should be at least average in this contest. According to Football Outsiders, the Seahawks are playing at the 11th-fastest situation neutral pace and Washington’s 15th. As a result, I expect Everett to eclipse 22.5 receiving yards against the Football Team. In addition, Bet Prep agrees, projecting Everett for 31.3 receiving yards.
Terry McLaurin OVER 65.5 Receiving Yards
The game’s projected pace should aid Terry McLaurin’s case for going over his yardage prop of 65.5 receiving yards. In addition, McLaurin’s matchup is a boon for his yardage outlook tonight as well. According to Pro Football Focus, McLaurin has the largest wide receiver versus cornerbacks matchup advantage in Week 12.
The third-year receiver also boasts ideal usage for piling up receiving yards. According to Sports Info Solutions, McLaurin is tied for sixth in target share (27.7%), and he’s third in Intended Air Yards (1,168). Thankfully, McLaurin’s turning his dreamy offensive gig into production, averaging 5.4 receptions for 73.5 receiving yards per game.
Unfortunately, McLaurin’s yardage production has been volatile week to week. Nevertheless, you couldn’t ask for much better usage. So, as a result, I’ll take his over. Finally, Bet Prep agrees, projecting him for 71.3 receiving yards.
