At last check, Roger Goodell was pulling in $64 million a year. Now, you’d think a commissioner making that kind of loot would know how to properly put together a weekly schedule that benefits his customer base. Or at least hire someone with scheduling competence.
Nope, not Rog.
To the annoyance of gamblers — er, fans — from coast to coast, the NFL’s Sunday schedule is constantly front-loaded, with the vast majority of games in the 1 p.m. ET window. Week 11 is no different, with NFL bettors getting nine early games and three late contests.
Thankfully, one of those three late kickoffs is the most intriguing matchup of Week 11, with the first-place Dallas Cowboys (7-2 SU, 8-1 ATS) traveling north to face the Kansas City Chiefs (6-4 SU, 3-7 ATS). Not-so-thankfully, Joe Buck will be on the call. (Thanks again, Rog!)
Fortunately, oddsmakers are around to pick up Goodell’s fumble, as they’re offering an array of NFL props on this Cowboys-Chiefs showdown. Here are five of our favorites — four featuring star players, and an alternate prop on the total.
Odds updated as of 1 p.m. ET Nov. 19.
Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 0.5 interceptions
The odds: Over -120/Under -110 (at BetMGM, DraftKings and The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: A big reason Dallas is 7-2 this season: Its ball-hawking defense, which has picked off 14 passes (third most in the league). Led by rookie cornerback Trevon Diggs’ astonishing eight INTs, the Cowboys have thieved at least one pass in seven of nine games. They notched two each in Weeks 1-5, another one in Week 6, then three more last week against Falcons QBs Matt Ryan (two) and the always-generous Josh Rosen (one).
The case for the Under: Oddly enough, just as the holiday season hit, Mahomes stopped being charitable. After tossing interceptions in a mind-boggling seven consecutive games (10 picks in all), the Chiefs QB didn’t have a single giveaway the past two weeks — two weeks in which he put the ball in the air a whopping 87 times.
Ezekiel Elliott Over/Under 66.5 rushing yards
The odds: Over -115/Under -115 (at BetMGM, DraftKings, The SuperBook and PointsBet USA)
The case for the Over: The Cowboys RB hasn’t exactly been slicing and dicing opposing defenses recently, as he hasn’t even cracked 52 rushing yards the past three weeks. But look at the situations in those three games: In Week 8 against the Vikings, Elliott had a bull’s-eye on him because the guy handing him the ball was Cooper Rush (50 yards). In Week 9 against the Broncos, his team fell behind 30-0 and had to abandon the run (10 carries, 51 yards). Then last week, his team eviscerated the Falcons 43-3 and didn’t need him to do much (14 carries, 41 yards). In his four previous outings, though, Zeke put up rushing yardage totals of 95, 143, 110 and 69.
The case for the Under: Much to Jerry Jones’ dismay (we’re sure), the Cowboys just aren’t feeding their beast of a tailback like they have in years’ past. Elliott is averaging just 15.8 carries per game, including 14.3 the past four weeks. And as shaky as the Chiefs’ defense has been this season, its rushing D ranks in the middle of the pack, yielding 114.6 yards per game. That average in the past three games: 81.3 (sixth best in the entire NFL).
Tyreek Hill Longest Reception Over/Under 26.5 yards
The odds: Over -110/Under -120 (at BetMGM and DraftKings)
The case for the Over: Kendrick Bourne, Brandon Zylstra, Tim Patrick, Quez Watkins, Kendall Hinton. Nope, that’s not the starting five of the rec league basketball team you’re facing tonight. Those are actual NFL players, all of whom have caught passes of 40-plus yards against the Cowboys’ defense this season. In all, 14 opposing players have hauled in receptions of at least 27 yards versus Dallas, with nine going for 38 yards or more. And none of those 14 are as fleet of foot as Hill.
The case for the Under: The Chiefs speedster scored on a 75-yard touchdown pass in Week 1 and had a 32-yard catch last week at the Raiders. In eight games in between, though, Hill has caught just one pass for more than 19 yards (a 44-yard reception at Philadelphia in Week 4). Also, Hill has only reception of more than 18 yards in five home games — that 75-yarder against the Browns in the season opener.
Ceedee Lamb Over/Under 5.5 receptions
The odds: Over -115/Under -110 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: We’re not sure if the Cowboys’ second-year WR is grabbing Dak Prescott’s morning coffee, mowing his lawn, or paying his bills. Perhaps all of the above. Whatever the case, Lamb has emerged as Prescott’s favorite weapon (among many), as he’s been targeted an average of eight times per game (tops on the club). The former Alabama star has turned those targets into a team-high 47 receptions, including at least six in three of the last four games. Lamb’s reception total in four road contests: 7, 8, 9 and 6.
The case for the Under: With WR Michael Gallup having returned from a lengthy injury absence last week, Prescott now has one more (talented) mouth to feed. Gallup had just three catches (on five targets) a week ago, and those numbers figure to increase with each passing week — and it could come at Lamb’s expense. Unless, of course, Lamb also starts picking up Prescott’s dry cleaning and washing his car.
Cowboys-Chiefs Over/Under 51.5 total points (alternate total)
The odds: Over -165/Under +135 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: Hmm, let’s see. Do the names Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Zeke Elliott, Travis Kelce, Amari Cooper, Tyreek Hill, and Ceedee Lamb ring a bell? No? How about the Chiefs’ defense — you familiar with that unit’s work this season? What about Dallas’ defense, which surrendered 28 and 30 points — at home! — to offenses led by Sam Darnold and Teddy Bridgewater?
The case for the Under: OK, enough with the sarcasm. Let’s talk numbers — these numbers: Since surrendering a season-high 31 points in Week 1 at Tampa Bay, the Cowboys have allowed 21 points or fewer in five of eight contests (including 17 at the Chargers and 16 at the Vikings). And over the last five weeks, Kansas City has given up 13, 27, 17, 7 and 14 points. In four of those games, the Chiefs and their opponents combined for 44, 30, 37 and 20 points. Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ last three games have ended with 46, 46 and 36 points.
Week 10 Results
Michael Pittman to score any touchdown (Result – no touchdowns)
Kyle Pitts Over/Under 68.5 receiving yards (Under – 60 yards)
Bills -6.5 vs. Jets, first half (Result – Bills win first half 17-3)
A.J. Brown Over/Under 5.5 receptions (Under – one reception)
Buccaneers-Washington Over/Under 9.5 first-quarter points (Under – 6 points)
Vikings-Chargers Over/Under 56.5 points, alternate total (Under – 47 points)
Eagles-Broncos, team to make longest field goal (Result – Eagles, 52 yards)
Tyler Lockett longest reception Over/Under 22.5 yards (Over – 23 yards)
Travis Kelce total touchdowns Over/Under 0.5 (Under – no touchdowns)
L.A. Rams -7.5, alternate side (Result – Rams lose 31-10)