The Patriots are ready to clash with the Washington Commanders on Sunday, Nov 5. This week 9 matchup is set to kick off at 1:00 ET and will be televised on FOX. New England enters this game as a 3-point favorite, and the over/under total is currently at 41. Can the Patriots pull this one out as the favorite? Below you will find our Patriots vs. Commanders player props and predictions.
Patriots VS. Commanders Odds
- Spread: Patriots -3
- Total 41
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Nov 5
- Time: 1:00 ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA
- TV: FOX
Commanders Betting Trends
- Over their last five games, the Commanders have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 2-2-1 vs. the spread.
- When looking at their past ten road matchups, Washington has an ATS record of 7-3 while averaging 22 per game. The team went 6-3-1 overall in these games.
- Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Commanders have a straight-up record of 5-5. Their record vs the spread in these games was 6-2-2.
Patriots Betting Trends
- In their last five games, the Patriots have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 1-4 vs. the spread.
- Through their last ten home games, New England has an ATS record of just 4-6. However, their overall record was 4-6 while averaging 21 points per game.
- The Patriots have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread.
Will Washington Shock Everyone at Gillette Stadium?
Eight games into the season, the Commanders hold a 3-5 record. This has them 3rd within the NFC-East and 11th in the NFC. The Commanders’ current scoring margin for the season stands at -7.1, contributing to their ATS record of 3-4-1.
This week, the Commanders are hoping to bounce back from a 38-31 loss to the Eagles. In addition to their 7-point loss, the Commanders ended with a push vs. the spread. They were 7-point underdogs heading into the game. The over/under line for the game was set at 42.5 points, and the final combined total surpassed it with 69 points.
Versus the Eagles, the Commanders turned to the run 16 times, and it was Brian Robinson Jr. who led the way with 59 yards. Meanwhile, Sam Howell finished with 52 pass attempts, resulting in 397 yards and a passer rating of 114.
The Commanders are 29th in the league in terms of yards allowed, giving up 374.1 yards per contest. Washington’s defense comes in with an average of 28.5 points per game allowed, which is 29th in the NFL.
Will the New England Defense Show Up at Home?
Through eight games, the Patriots have a record of 2-6. This mark has them 4th in the AFC-East and 16th in the AFC. As the underdog, New England has gone 1-5 this season compared to their ATS record of 1-1 as the favorite. At home, the Patriots are 1-3 ATS and 1-3 vs. the spread on the road.
In week 8, the Patriots hit the road to face the Dolphins, but they suffered a 31-17 loss. In addition to their 14-point loss, the Patriots also lost vs. the spread. They were 7.5-point underdogs heading into the game. With a set over/under line of 46.5 points, the game concluded with a combined total of 48 points, surpassing the betting line.
New England’s offense generated 218 total yards against the Dolphins. On third downs, the Patriots managed a conversion rate of 11.1%. Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in rushing with 39 yards, while Mac Jones passed for 161 yards.
New England is sitting 24th in points allowed so far. Heading into week 9, their opponents are putting up an average of 26 points per game on 321.1 yards per contest.
Patriots vs. Commanders Player Prop
In this week’s matchup, Brian Robinson Jr. has a rushing yards prop of 43.5. The over is currently paying out at -112, indicating implied odds of 53%, whereas the under has a payout of -120 (55%). Brian Robinson Jr. is ranked 16th among running backs in rushing attempts so far, having gained 384 yards. His average yards per carry heading into this week’s game is 4. The Patriots defense is currently allowing an average of 3.4 yards per rushing attempt. Based on this, I’d bet on taking the under at 43.5 rushing yards.
- The Prop: Brian Robinson Jr. Under 43.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Patriots VS. Commanders Predictions
New England started as 1.5 point favorites at home, and the lines have since moved in their favor to -3.
A key matchup to watch in this game is the Commanders’ offense vs. the Patriots’ defense. Our projections have the Commanders building on their most recent 472-yard performance on offense and putting together another big game vs. New England. I like the Commanders at +3.
The Pick: Commanders +3 | -110 at Fanduel Sportsbook