Here we go with our NBA Finals predictions and best bets ahead of Game 1 between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets — which is scheduled for Thursday, June 1.
Two of our Props.com analysts surveyed the NBA Finals props and odds to uncover their favorite bets for this series. This includes everything from series bets, player props, player awards, and other prediction categories.
Before we dive into these NBA Finals predictions, don’t forget to check out our Best NBA Player Props article for our favorite NBA props every day of the postseason.
NBA Finals Predictions & Best Bets
These NBA Finals predictions were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing on Tuesday, May 30.
Nuggets Series Spread: DEN -2.5 Games (+140)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to Bet: Nuggets Series Spread: -2.5 games | +140 on DraftKings Sportsbook
The Heat have been a massive surprise during the postseason. They barely managed to get into the playoffs, winning the last game of the play-in tournament, and they were the worst playoff team in terms of Net Rating during the regular season. The fact that they’ve managed to get past the Bucks, Knicks, and Celtics was nothing short of remarkable.
That said, I’m not entirely buying the Heat as juggernauts. The Heat got exceptionally lucky with Giannis Antetokounmpo suffering an injury in the first round, while the Knicks were not really in the same weight class. The shooting discrepancy in the first three games in the Celtics’ series put Boston way behind the 8-ball, while Erik Spoelstra coached Joe Mazzulla under a table.
The Heat also managed to win three of four games in Boston, and they will not have that luxury vs. the Nuggets. Denver is arguably the best home team in basketball, and they’ve yet to lose at home during the postseason.
The Heat also relied on a ton of zone defense vs. the Celtics, which was extremely successful. I would not expect them to have the same success vs. Denver:
The Denver Nuggets were the No.1 offense vs. Zone, regular season and playoffs, this season.
— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) May 30, 2023
Denver will have the benefit of home court in three of the first five games in the Finals. If they can win each of those contests, they only need to split in Miami to cover the 2.5 game spread.
Player Milestones: Caleb Martin to Record 10+ Rebounds in an NBA Finals Game (+100)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to Bet: Caleb Martin to Record 10+ Rebounds in an NBA Finals Game | +100 on DraftKings Sportsbook
While I’m not particularly bullish on the Heat in this series, it’s hard not to take Martin seriously at this point. He just turned in a phenomenal series vs. the Celtics, serving as the team’s second-best player behind Jimmy Butler. He averaged 19.3 points per game vs. the Celtics while shooting 60.2% from the field and 48.9% from 3-point range.
I don’t expect Martin to continue to shoot the lights out – he was a roughly 35% 3-point shooter during the regular season – but I like his upside on the glass. He moved into the team’s starting lineup for each of the final two games vs. the Celtics, and he grabbed at least 10 rebounds in both. He played at least 40.5 minutes in both contests and given how effective he was, his role vs. the Nuggets should be solidified.
This bet gives us at least four opportunities for Martin to pull down 10+ boards, and I like his chances of doing it at least once.
Nikola Jokic: Most Points In Series (+110)
Analyst: Spencer Limbach
Where to bet: Nikola Jokic to score most points in series | +110 odds at Bet365
I found this prop at Bet365, which is running an excellent promotion for the NBA Finals:
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As for the prop, Jokic currently averages 29.9 points per game this postseason, and he seems to be improving his scoring totals as the playoffs go on. The Denver big man has posted 29+ points in seven of his last nine games.
By comparison, Jimmy Butler is averaging 28.5 points per game, but he’s currently going through somewhat of a shooting slump at the moment. Jamal Murray is averaging 27.7 points per game in the playoffs.
I love that we are getting Jokic to score the most points in this series for plus-money odds.
Nuggets Series Spread: DEN -1.5 Games (-150)
Analyst: Spencer Limbach
Where to bet: Nuggets Series Spread: DEN -1.5 Games | -150 at DraftKings Sportsbook
I’m not taking as big of a swing as my colleague, Matt LaMarca, who bet Nuggets series spread -2.5 earlier in this article. However, the reasoning is the same.
Yes, it has been a mistake to underestimate the Miami Heat in every series up to this point. Still, this feels like the end of their magical run.
Denver is the better team all-around with health and rest on its side. The Nuggets are undefeated on their home court in the postseason, and they can counter nearly everything the Heat do well.
If the Nuggets win in four, five, or six games — this bet cashes. That seems like a pretty safe bet, and I’ll lay the -150 juice at DraftKings. Take note that FanDuel has this listed at -162, so it makes sense to shop for the best odds before placing your wager.