Here we go with our Sunday Night Football Prop Bets for Week 2.
The Bears are coming off an upset win at home in Week 1. This week, they’re sizable underdogs against their bitter NFC North rivals in Green Bay.
Conversely, the Packers are coming off a beatdown at the hands of the Vikings. Nevertheless, the betting lines suggest oddsmakers and sportsbooks aren’t overreacting to Green Bay’s ugly loss. So, what does the sizable spread mean for the props market for the Sunday Night Football game?
Sunday Night Football Prop Bets: Week 2
Here’s a trio of Packers vs. Bears player props I like for Sunday’s game:
Justin Fields Over 0.5 Interceptions (-210)
Fields tossing a pick is a chalky bet, evidenced by the -210 line. Still, I can’t pass up a likely outcome, even if the payout on my standard modest flat bet won’t be large. The second-year quarterback threw an interception on one of his 17 passes in Week 1. Yes, the monsoon conditions are a consideration. Still, the forecast for Green Bay on Sunday has a chance of rain during the game.
Moreover, interceptions have been a regular occurrence for Fields in his young career. In 11 games in which he’s played at least 65% of Chicago’s snaps, he’s thrown at least one interception eight times. He also threw at least one interception in the six losses in the previous 11-game sample, including throwing a pick in both losses to the Packers last season. Finally, I expect the Packers to win. So, Fields should be forced to throw in a negative game script, enhancing his chances of throwing an interception.
Where to bet: Justin Fields Over 0.5 Interceptions | -210 at DraftKings Sportsbook
AJ Dillon Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Dillon has carved out essentially a co-starter role in Green Bay’s backfield. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he’s played at least 51% of offensive snaps six times in his previous eight regular-season games. Further, Dillon has rushed for more than 50.5 rushing yards in a nice six of his last nine games.
Dillon has also rushed for over 50.5 yards in six of Green Bay’s last eight wins in the regular season. He’s also been the hammer when Green Bay has led. Last year, when Green Bay led by at least four points, Dillon rushed 61 times for 252 yards versus only 41 attempts for 145 yards for Aaron Jones. Finally, Dillon rushed for 59 yards on 11 attempts against the Bears in Week 6 in 2021. Then, he rumbled for 71 yards on 15 carries in Week 14. So, let’s hop on his over for rushing yards.
Where to bet: AJ Dillon Over 50.5 Rushing Yards | -115 at BetMGM
David Montgomery Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The game script will probably be harmful to Montgomery’s rushing outlook. He also had only 42 yards on 10 rush attempts and an 84% offensive snap share in his only game (Week 14) against the Packers last season.
Further, Montgomery got off to an inefficient start this year. He toted the rock 17 times for only 26 yards. The Matchup was admittedly challenging. According to Football Outsiders, the 49ers were second in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) last season. However, the matchup was also tricky for Khalil Herbert, and the second-year back was much better than Montgomery, rumbling for 45 yards on nine attempts.
There were murmurs from football analysts in the offseason about Herbert being a better stylistic fit for Chicago’s new offense, and he outplayed Montgomery in Week 1. Additionally, Montgomery’s snap share was 66% in Week 1. He exceeded that mark in 10 of 13 games last year. So, the volume-needy back might not be a workhorse for the new coaching staff. Further, Herbert might earn more reps this week after last week’s stellar showing. Regardless, the volume is unlikely to be there for Montgomery to surpass 46.5 rushing yards.
Where to bet: David Montgomery Under 46.5 Rushing Yards | -115 at BetMGM
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