These NFL computer picks were compiled by the BetPrep.com database, focusing on line value when looking at historically similar matchups. For more details on the pick selection, scroll down to the reference section below.
We will track this model throughout the season, gleaning insights along the way.
NFL Computer Picks: Week 2
We are only tracking picks with 65% or greater in the similar matchups column. Still, there are 13 selections for Week 2, which includes a pair of highlighted wagers for the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Chiefs and Chargers.
| Pick | Opponent | Similar Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| Chargers +4 | at Chiefs | 78% |
| Under 54 | Chargers-Chiefs | 100% |
| Dolphins +3.5 | at Ravens | 73% |
| Under 44.5 | Dolphins-Ravens | 82% |
| Patriots -2 | at Steelers | 91% |
| Jets +6 | at Browns | 80% |
| Over 40 | Patriots-Steelers | 91% |
| Over 40 | Jets-Browns | 70% |
| Under 46.5 | Colts-Jaguars | 78% |
| Saints +2.5 | vs. Buccaneers | 88% |
| Over 44 | Buccaneers-Saints | 79% |
| Seahawks +9.5 | at 49ers | 100% |
| Bears +10 | at Packers | 91% |
Insights For Week 2
You can view last week’s results in the section below. It’s worth noting that we had two picks at 100% line value last week, which went 1-1. There are two bets with that designation for Week 2:
- Chargers-Chiefs Under 54
- Seahawks +9.5 (at 49ers)
On top of that, picks with 80% or higher line value went 4-1 in Week 1. In addition to the pair of picks above, these bets made the cut for Week 2:
- Bears +10 (at Packers)
- Dolphins-Ravens Under 44.5
- Patriots -2 (at Steelers)
- Jets +6 (at Browns)
- Patriots-Steelers Over 40
- Saints +2.5 vs. Bucs
It’s a small sample size, but the model seems to believe that the Patriots and Chargers are undervalued. Both teams were selected against the spread in Week 1 and Week 2.
NFL Computer Picks Reference
BetPrep’s NFL computer picks look through historical data to find line value on the spread or total. Essentially, it compares the spread/total with similar matchups over the years and lets you know if the number is higher or lower than a large percentage of those games. This is what the “Similar Matchup” column means in the aforementioned table.
For example, the Chargers are +4 at the Chiefs. BetPrep indicates that teams like the Chargers have a lower spread in 78% of similar matchups based on historical data. Thus, indicating line value for this pick.
You can view the model and poke around in the BetPrep database here.
NFL Computer Picks Results
Season Overall: 6-2
Spread: 4-2
Totals: 2-0
Below, you can find a table with all the results for the 2022-23 season.
| Week | Pick | Opponent | Similar Match | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | Patriots +3.5 | at Dolphins | 100% | Loss |
| Week 1 | Steelers +6.5 | at Bengals | 100% | Win |
| Week 1 | Texans +7 | vs. Colts | 82% | Win |
| Week 1 | Falcons +5.5 | vs. Saints | 69% | Win |
| Week 1 | Over 43 | Falcons/Saints | 91% | Win |
| Week 1 | Under 52 | Raiders/Chargers | 97% | Win |
| Week 1 | Chargers -3.5 | vs. Raiders | 66% | Win |
| Week 1 | Packers -1.5 | at Vikings | 70% | Loss |