The Padres would love to get the brooms out in Queens on Sunday Night Baseball, helping them push for a playoff spot.
For San Diego, going for the Wild Card is their best chance to reach the playoffs as the Dodgers have continued to build a double-digit lead in the NL West. The Padres have built an impressive rotation, coming into today with the fourth-best ERA in the National League (3.69) and the fifth-best WHIP (1.20).
The Mets have cooled down significantly since earlier in the year when they had the best record in the National League at one point. Unfortunately, their counterparts in NL East have been some of the best in the league over the last month and a half, so that double-digit lead they had going into June is down to a half-game going into tonight.
A Braves win today, and Mets loss would take them out of first place since April 11.
Padres vs Mets Odds
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres (Musgrove) | +1.5 (-195) | +110 | O 8.0 (-105) |
| @ Mets (Carrasco) | -1.5 (+62) | -130 | U 8.0 (-115) |
Can Musgrove Bounce Back?
Joe Musgrove had an incredible start to the season but has hit a skid recently. After 12 consecutive quality starts to being the season, he’s coming in with a 5.04 ERA in his last four starts with a team record of 1-3. One of those starts was in the thin air of Denver, and the other was against the red-hot, power-hitting Phillies offense.
Musgrove can attribute his success this season to the improvement in controlling his pitches. His 0.971 WHIP is the best of his career, along with 3.09 FIP, and 2.1 walks per nine are the best since 2018.
He’s changed up his whole approach to pitching. The strikeout numbers have dropped from 10.5 per nine the last two seasons to 8.8 this year. The success has come from location, keeping the ball out of a hitter’s power zones and inducing weak contact. This season his weak batted-ball percentage is currently at a career-high 4.8.
Padres' Joe Musgrove owning in the All Star Game despite the telecast barely even acknowledging him. pic.twitter.com/7hv51Pkmyq
— Mickey Koke (@mickeykoke) July 20, 2022
The Mets have had success against him in the past, coming with a .277 average and a .459 expected slugging percentage, but they haven’t seen him this year. The Mets produce with plate discipline and making contact with the ball as they’re third in whiff percentage (23.9) and sixth in on-base percentage (.323).
That will be the matchup to watch for the night — will the Mets’ ability to make contact and put pressure on the opposing pitcher come through against Musgrove’s ability to keep runners off?
Carrasco Regression Incoming?
On the other side, Carlos Carrasco is on one of his better stretches this season, with a 1.56 ERA in his last three starts.
Although that number looks good, luck has played a part. They haven’t been easy starts, as he’s allowed 18 hits and five walks in the previous 17.1 innings for a 1.345 WHIP. What’s been his saving grace is the 19 strikeouts in that time.
Carlos Carrasco has pitched in the major leagues for 11 years.
His father, who watches all of Carlos' games from Colombia, had never seen him play live.
Today, Luis Carrasco watched from Citi Field as his son won his MLB-leading 6th game of the season. pic.twitter.com/gdc0IoVJZI
— Front Office Sports (@FOS) June 2, 2022
Carrasco has a start against the Padres this season and went seven innings with a season-high ten strikeouts. I wouldn’t expect the same strikeout numbers again. The Padres have an average strikeout percentage throughout the season and currently have the lowest strikeout average in the league (16.0%) since July 11, and the second-best walk-to-strikeout ratio (0.6).
Padres vs Mets Prediction
Musgrove is not his best right now, but this is a great game to get back on track. His ability to locate pitches and keep runners off base is an excellent counterpart to the Mets’ offense. Carrasco has struggled throughout the season, and although he’s had success in recent starts, he’s barely scathed by without harm.
The Pick: Padres moneyline | +110 at Caesars Sportsbook
