The Yankees and Red Sox are getting right back into another series after splitting four-game last weekend at Fenway.
Both of these teams are coming into the weekend on a down note. The Yankees lost two of three at home against the last-place Cincinnati Reds, while the Red Sox were just swept in a four-game series by the Rays.
None of those factors matter when it comes to this series. Both teams will come in with a clean slate in one of the biggest rivalries in sports.
Will Eovaldi continue his dominance against the Yankees?
Nathan Eovaldi will be on the mound and once again is having a terrific season for Boston. He allowed three or fewer runs in 11 of 12 outings this season, including six quality starts with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.098 WHIP.
The surface numbers are great, but he’s been lucky so far. He’s coming in with a career-high 45.9 hard hit percentage, which is in the eighth percentile, the same as average exit velocity, xwOBA, and xSLG. The expected ERA is at an eye-popping 4.31. The reason why his actual ERA is so low is that he’s done well with keeping his walks down (1.7 per nine) and his strikeouts up (9.5 per nine).
He’s had one start already at Yankee Stadium this year, pitching five innings and allowing three runs in a no-decision. While this wasn’t one of his best performances against his old team, he has a great history against them, especially in a Red Sox uniform. Previous to that start, he allowed two earned in three straight starts at Yankee Stadium, along with a career 3.76 ERA in 33 appearances.
Nathan Eovaldi, Dirty Splitters. ✌️ pic.twitter.com/CvYLaxJgkO
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 9, 2022
Is Jordan Montgomery getting back into a groove?
Jordan Montgomery will go for the Yankees, and over the last couple of years, he’s become a dependable starter for them. The significant change this year is that he’s been relying more on his sinker. The movement on that pitch has drastically changed from an average 11% break vs. in 2021 to 24% this season. He’s also improved his curveball and changeup, getting hitters to chase at over 40% while using them as his put-away pitches.
Monty has come back strong after getting shelved recently against the Ray and Athletics. He’s pitched better over his last two starts. One of those was against the Red Sox last week, where he allowed two earned in 5.2 innings in a no decision.
Jordan Montgomery, Wicked 80mph Curveball. 🤢
And pitching with 🔥 pic.twitter.com/sm6kqsMeTI
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 12, 2022
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds & Action
The Yankees opened at -179 on Thursday night, and the line has only mildly increased to -167 in some spots.
Bettors believe the Red Sox will win this game as 60% of the tickets and 59% of the moneyline cash is on Boston.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction
Eovaldi always steps it up against his former team, especially in the Bronx. The Red Sox are great against left-handed pitching this season as they’re top 4 in AVG, SLG, OPS, BABIP, and wOBA against southpaws this season. That could mean trouble for Montgomery. Boston will get the first game in this series.
The Pick: Red Sox moneline +145 at PointsBet
