Welcome back to the NBA Betting Dime! It’s that time, as we have finally rolled into the NBA Finals Predictions edition.
Also, if you’re new to the NBA Betting Dime, then welcome! This is a safe space that combines some of the things that make basketball and NBA betting so special. You can expect to find some analytical deep dives into NBA betting, social media clips, gambling information, and maybe some pop culture references sprinkled in.
This edition will focus entirely on the NBA Finals. I’ll take a look at X-factors for both squads, how each team got here, and what each team needs to do to win the series. I’ll also wrap things up with my NBA Finals predictions.
Let’s dive right in.
All odds updated as of June 1 at 7 a.m. ET.
1. How Did We Get Here?
The Celtics and Warriors will square off in the 75th edition of the NBA Finals. They’ve met once in the Finals previously, with Bill Russell’s Celtics outlasting Wilt Chamberlain’s Warriors in just five games. The Celtics are the most decorated squad in league history – racking up a ridiculous 21 titles – but the Warriors have had more success recently. They’ve won three titles since 2015, and they’ve reached the Finals in six of the past eight years. The only years they’ve failed to reach the Finals were due to injuries, so they’re essentially a dynasty.
Both of these squads had vastly different paths to the Finals in 2022.
The Warriors Path
The Warriors opened the season at approximately +1200, but it became apparent quickly that they were serious contenders. They moved up to +450 at the All-Star break, but a late-season swoon dropped them to +1000 before the start of the postseason.
However, the Warriors have been able to roll through the playoffs. They were largely untroubled in the first round, dispatching the Nuggets in just five games. They faced a bit of a stiffer test from the Grizzlies in the second round, but they were able to close things out at home in Game 6. The Warriors needed just five games to advance to the Western Conference Finals, so they’ve been largely untroubled. The fact that they were able to avoid the Suns – who finished the year with the best record in basketball – certainly didn’t hurt the Warriors’ chances.
The Celtics Path
Meanwhile, the Celtics have had a brutal march to the Finals. They opened the year as high as +5000 to win the title. If that sounds high to you, it’s because it is: No team in the past 35 years has ever won the title with longer preseason odds.
Believe it or not, you could’ve got the Celtics at an even better price a few months into the year. They fell to a whopping +6600 after opening the year just 16-19 through their first 35 games.
After that, they transformed into an entirely different squad. They went 35-12 over their final 47 games, thanks in part to a dominant defense. The Celtics finished the year first in the league in defensive efficiency, and they outscored opponents by nearly 12.5 points per game over that stretch.
By the time the playoffs rolled around, the Celtics had moved into a dead heat with the Warriors at +1000 to win the Finals.
Their path through the playoffs was not an easy one. It started with a matchup vs. the Nets, who employ two of the best offensive players in the league: Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. They were considered the favorites for most of the year, but the Celtics dispatched them in just four games.
After that, the Celtics had a date with Giannis Antetokounmpo and the defending champs. The Bucks were not at full strength – Khris Middleton missed the entire series – but the Celtics were able to prevail in seven games.
The Heat finished with the best record in the East during the regular season, and they were the final test for the Celtics before the Finals. That series was ugly at times – particularly a Game 6 loss on their home court – but the Celtics once again advanced in the full seven games.
NBA Finals Odds
The playoffs have been plagued by an abundance of blowouts, but this series stands out as an excellent matchup on paper.
The Warriors are listed as slight -150 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, and they’ll have the benefit of homecourt advantage. The Warriors are 3.5-point favorites in Game 1, which suggests that the home team will be favored in each game in this series.
I’m expecting plenty of competitive contests, which will hopefully leave a good taste in fans’ mouths heading into the offseason.
2. Which Star Will Shine Brightest?
The NBA is arguably loaded with more talent than at any point in the past. There are a host of superstars spanning the age spectrum, including both Jayson Tatum and Steph Curry.
Curry will go down as an all-time great, but it’s possible that he’s on the downside of his career. He’s 34-years-old and has dealt with plenty of injuries, and his performances this postseason have felt mortal. He still leads the Warriors in most major categories during the postseason, but he averaged just 23.8 points per game during the Western Conference finals. That was his lowest per-game output in any playoff series since 2016.
Meanwhile, Tatum is on the way up. He’s already outdueled Durant and Antetokounmpo during the postseason, arguably the two best players in the league. He’s still just 24-years-old, so he should have plenty of gas left in the tank.
All of which begs the question: which superstar has the edge in the Finals? Basketball is a team game, but having the best player in a series goes a long way towards winning.
Stephen Curry vs. Jayson Tatum
I have always been a huge Steph Curry fan. I’ve even considered buying Ayesha Curry’s cookbook even though the only kitchen instrument I know how to use is a microwave.
The way the Warriors play basketball is akin to making music, and Curry is the ultimate maestro. His presence on the court opens up so much freedom for the rest of his teammates. It’s a big part of the reason why guys like Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins have been able to blossom for the Warriors this season.
However, even I have to concede that he’s not the same player. Don’t get me wrong, Curry is still highly efficient: Only four players have racked up more Win Shares than Curry during the postseason, and two of them have averaged fewer Win Shares per 48 minutes. He also ranks fifth in Offensive Box Score Plus/Minus (OBPM), trailing only Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Those players have all had to carry heavier burdens than Curry, who plays with an elite group of offensive teammates.
The Dubs are taking most of the dough in Game 1 at @BetMGM, Golden State might be trouble for the book if they win, and MVP liability has shifted to Jayson Tatum. @PatrickE_Vegas is getting into it on NBA Finals action.
🏀💰 https://t.co/KpwS51U5P2 pic.twitter.com/VgDGwW9XbV
— Props (@PropsUS) June 1, 2022
Tatum isn’t too far behind Curry on that end of the floor. Tatum ranks 10th in OPBM, and both players have nearly identical True Shooting Percentages.
The big difference comes on the defensive end of the court, where Tatum is a major plus. He’s not an elite, lockdown defender, but it’s no coincidence that the Celtics have been so good defensively this year. His length makes him an outstanding help defender, and the Celtics are nearly unbeatable in half-court situations (more on this later).
NBA Finals Predictions: MVP Betting
I’m giving the slightest of edges to Tatum in this matchup, which makes him an interesting option at +175 to win the Finals MVP.
It’s possible to bet the Warriors to win the series and hedge with Tatum individually, and it seems unlikely that anyone else on the Celtics can win the award. Jaylen Brown is available at +1000, but he is clearly the Robin to Tatum’s Batman.
It’s not impossible for someone other than the team’s best player to win the MVP – just ask Andre Iguodala – but it is an extremely rare happening. I think it’s far more likely that someone other than Steph wins for the Warriors than someone other than Tatum does for the Celtics.
3. Tatum Channels The Black Mamba
Kobe Bryant’s passing had a massive impact on the basketball community, including Tatum. He grew up idolizing Kobe, and the two players worked together during the early part of Tatum’s career.
With Tatum playing in the biggest game of his life on Sunday, he decided to channel his late mentor. Not only did he wear a purple “24” wristband, but he also sent Kobe a text message before the win:
Jayson Tatum texted Kobe before Game 7 pic.twitter.com/PHFAdD0DVD
— Taylor Snow (@taylorcsnow) May 30, 2022
Tatum responded with a Kobe-like performance in Game 7, finishing with 26 points, 10 boards, six assists, one steal, and two blocked shots in a close win. He was rewarded with the inaugural Larry Bird Trophy, which will be handed out annually to the Eastern Conference finals MVP. It’s his first major trophy, to go along with his first All-NBA First Team selection.
Even though Kobe is no longer with us, his presence in the game remains large. It’s hard to imagine he wasn’t looking down and smiling at what his protégé did on Sunday.
4. Noteworthy Numbers
One of my favorite parts about being a sports fan is the numbers. Not necessarily the numbers on the jerseys, but the facts, trivia, and tidbits. Who doesn’t love a good piece of trivia?
This series has some very noteworthy numbers attached to it. A few stand out above the rest:
Zero MVP Trophies
This is the number of Finals MVPs that Curry has accumulated. It remains the one piece of hardware that is notably missing from his trophy case, separating him from the game’s truly elite. His three rings are certainly nice, but the lack of an MVP is a clear negative against him. Iguodala took home the MVP in Curry’s first title thanks to his stellar defense of LeBron James, while Durant took home the MVP in the second two.
141 Playoff Games
That’s the record number of playoff games Al Horford has appeared in before playing in his first Finals contest. Horford has undoubtedly had a fantastic career, but his teams haven’t been able to get over the hump until this season. He’s had previous deep runs with the Celtics, Hawks, and 76ers, but this will be a long-awaited trip to the promised land for the 36-year-old veteran.
Additionally, Horford has been a major player for the Celtics. He actually leads the team in many advanced metrics, so this is not some ceremonial ride on the coattails of younger players. If the Celtics are going to pull off the upset, Horford will have to have another big series. We’ll see if he has any gas left in the tank.
7-9 Record Vs Boston
The Warriors have gone just 7-9 against the Celtics since Steve Kerr took over as head coach in 2015. They’re the only team that can claim a winning record against the Warriors over that time frame. The next closest team is the Raptors, and their winning percentage is just north of 40%.
Does any of that matter heading into the Finals? Not really, but it is interesting. For what it’s worth, these two teams split their matchups during the regular season, but the Warriors weren’t really at full strength in either contest.
.695 Win Percentage
This is Curry’s winning percentage during the postseason, which is the top mark for any player who has won an MVP. That’s part of what’s so impressive about the Warriors. They weren’t a team like the Celtics, who grinded for years to try and make it to the Finals. Their rise was meteoric, with Curry winning the Finals in just his third trip to the playoffs.
Since then, the Warriors have lost just two series: The 2016 Finals vs. the Cavaliers – where the team famously blew a 3-1 lead – and the 2019 Finals vs. the Raptors. If not for a Draymond Green suspension and an injury to Kevin Durant, it’s possible that Curry’s last lost series would be all the way back in 2014. That’s remarkable.
123 Games Of Experience
This last number is possibly the most important for this series. The Warriors’ roster has accumulated a whopping 123 games of NBA Finals experience. That doesn’t even include Steve Kerr, who is no stranger to the Finals as a coach and as a player.
The Celtics roster? They have zero games of NBA Finals experience. The old adage in the NBA is that you have to lose before you can win. The Celtics obviously had plenty of growing pains during their previous Eastern Conference finals appearances, but do they have one lesson left to learn before getting over the hump? If there are any nerves in this series, expect them to be on the Celtics’ sideline.
5. Steph Curry Goes Night Night
In case you’ve missed it, Curry has broken out a new celebration during the postseason. After hitting a few dagger 3-pointers, Curry has officially laid his opponents to rest:
Steph said 😴 pic.twitter.com/lJmIcpp514
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 28, 2022
Again, I absolutely love Curry, but I’m not feeling this celebration. Anyone can celebrate when the series is already in hand. It takes a true legend to taunt your opponent when the game is still in the balance. Curry knows all about this:
the fact that Steph Curry has a mix of no look treys is just 🤯🤯🤯
— Klayphe (@klayphe) September 1, 2021
That’s the Steph I know and love. The no-look triples. The shimmy shakes. The cold-blooded dagger from the logo. Leave the night night routine for someone else.
6. Celtics X-Factor: Robert Williams
Williams suffered a knee injury towards the end of the regular season, and it was unclear if he’d be able to suit up at all during the playoffs. However, he’s been able to return to the lineup in a limited capacity.
Williams hasn’t been asked to play more than 25 minutes or so per game, which hasn’t been a huge issue with Horford playing so well. Still, Williams was one of the best defensive centers in the league during the regular season, and the Celtics’ defense is at its best with him manning the middle. They allowed 4.8 fewer points per 100 possessions with Williams on the floor, while their opponents’ effective field goal percentage decreased by -2.2%.
Williams was limited to just 15 minutes in the Celtics’ Game 7 win over the Heat. Head coach Ime Udoka told reporters that Williams “felt good” after that contest, but it’s clear that he’s operating at less than 100%.
If he’s unable to give the Celtics much more than that, depth could be an issue vs. the Warriors. They have five players that they can feel pretty comfortable in Tatum, Brown, Horford, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White. After that, things get a bit dicier. Payton Pritchard has shown some ability to knock down shots, but he’s a major liability on defense. Grant Williams has given the Celtics some capable minutes at times, but he’s basically a zero on offense. Adding Williams to their group of five would likely be enough, but if he’s too banged up, they’re going to need to rely on a major question mark for a handful of minutes per night. Against the Warriors, that has the potential to be a huge problem.
7. Warriors X-Factor: Jordan Poole
Poole has been a breakout star of the postseason. He filled in for Curry when the star point guard was out of the lineup to start the playoffs, and he’s continued to pile up the points off the bench. He was insanely efficient in the Western Conference finals, averaging 16.4 points per game while shooting 63.6 percent from the field, 40.0 percent from 3-point range, and 100 percent from the free-throw line. Adding him to Curry and Thompson gives the Warriors an amazing trio of shooters in the backcourt.
The problem with Poole is he has been a disaster defensively. Actually, calling him a disaster might be an understatement. According to Second Spectrum, Poole has allowed a ridiculous 1.37 points per possession when targeted in the pick-and-roll during the postseason. That’s the worst mark by a ridiculous amount.
Things don’t get much better in other situations. He’s been targeted in isolation 26 times during the postseason, and opponents are shooting 73 percent in that situation. Opponents are also averaging 1.57 points per possession in post-up situations vs. Poole.
As much as a lineup featuring Curry, Poole, Thompson, Wiggins, and Green seems appealing, Poole has been too much of a liability to make that lineup feasible. Replacing Poole with Kevon Looney definitely lowers the offensive ceiling, but it is much more capable on the defensive end and on the glass.
If the Warriors are at full strength – with Gary Payton II and Otto Porter in the fold – Poole will be best deployed against bench units. Anything more than that, and the Warriors will have a major weakness on the defensive end. If the Warriors are already hiding Curry on Smart, something they did often during the regular season, there’s nowhere for Poole to hide.
8. The Celtics Blueprint For A Title
This one is pretty easy: don’t turn the ball over.
The Celtics can occasionally get way too sloppy with the ball on offense, which negates their massive advantage on the defensive end of the floor. Remember how I mentioned the Celtics’ halfcourt defense was borderline unbeatable? They’ve limited opposing offenses to an average of 87.5 points per 100 possessions in half-court sets. That’s nearly two full points lower than the next best team (the Clippers), and it’s approximately nine points better than the league average. The Warriors are one of the best half-court offenses in the league – and significantly better than the Bucks and Heat – but they will have their hands full if the Celtics can set their defense.
The problem is that the Celtics occasionally have massive turnover issues. In their three losses to the Heat, the Celtics averaged 18.7 turnovers per game. In their four wins, they averaged just 11.5. Overall, the Celtics’ defense has allowed 135.7 points per 100 possessions in transition, so that’s not exactly a huge surprise.
If the Celtics can limit the turnovers and turn this into a half-court affair, they have a legitimate chance of winning this series. Teams have struggled with their combination of pesky on-ball defenders and elite length all year, and the Warriors will be no exception.
9. The Warriors Blueprint For A Title
There’s no magic formula for the Warriors to win a title. They’re the freaking Warriors: they just need to do what they’ve done for most of the past decade.
They also need to limit the turnovers – they finished with the second-worst turnover rate during the regular season – but it’s not quite as vital to their success. The Warriors have always been a turnover-heavy squad, but they make up for it with their elite offensive contributions.
I would argue that their biggest weakness is their tendency to foul opponents. They ranked 23rd in foul rate during the regular season, and they’ve been worse during the postseason. The Celtics aren’t elite at attacking the rim, but the Warriors can’t give them an abundance of free chances. Not only does that give them the opportunity to score free points, but it allows them to set up their elite half-court defense.
The Warriors have averaged the most points per 100 possessions during the postseason, and they trailed only the Celtics in defensive efficiency during the playoffs. They’re a complete team, so they just need to not put themselves behind the eight-ball.
10. NBA Finals Predictions
We’re approximately 3,100 words into this Finals write-up, and I’m finally ready to make my official NBA Finals predictions. Most importantly, I’ll break down who I like to lift the trophy when it’s all said and done.
For a quick review, we’ve done pretty well with our picks in this column during the postseason. We went 4-2 on our first-round series selections – good for +1.9 units – and we were 3-0 on series picks in the second round. So what’s the pick?
NBA Finals Predictions: Series Winner
Ultimately, I think the most likely scenario is the Warriors winning this series in seven games, and I think -150 is a fair price to target them.
I’d rather do that than target the Celtics +1.5 games, which is available at -210.
The Warriors have simply been the best team in basketball when healthy this season. They’ve outscored teams by a sizable margin with both Curry and Green on the floor this season, and the addition of Thompson, Wiggins, and Poole has only helped.
The Celtics are going to give them everything they can handle, but expect the champs to be ready for it. Finally, if this series does come down to a decisive Game 7, the Warriors will have all the advantages. Between home court, the experience factor, and the coaching edge, it’s hard to imagine the Warriors losing that contest.
Editor’s Note: Looking to back the Warriors? The best odds for Golden State to win the series (-150) can be found on DraftKings. New patrons can receive up to a $1,000 deposit bonus by clicking our “Play Now” affiliate link below.
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More NBA Finals Predictions & Prop Bets
I’ve enjoyed writing this column all season, and I hope you’ve enjoyed following along. That said, I’ll have plenty of prop bets written up throughout the series, so the fun doesn’t end here. Let’s end things with a bang!