The Houston Astros were playing .500 baseball on May 1, but two weeks later, they’re on the cusp of the greatest winning streak in team history. The Astros have won 11 in a row and can tie the club record with a 12th straight victory Saturday against the Washington Nationals.
With Houston heating up, prominent sports bettor Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale decided to get down $4 million to win $42 million on the Astros to win the World Series.
Houston’s pitching has been dominant during the streak, and the Astros appear to have the edge on the mound Saturday. All that adds up to Houston being solidly favored against the struggling Nationals in an interleague matchup.
Props.com breaks down Astros vs Nationals odds for Saturday.
Odds via DraftKings as of 6 p.m. ET on May 14.
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Houston Astros (22-11) vs Washington Nationals (11-23)
First pitch/TV: 7:05 p.m. ET/MLB.TV
Moneyline: Astros -130/Nationals +110
Run Line: Astros -1.5 (+120)/Nationals +1.5 (-140)
Total: 8.5 (Over -120/Under +100)
Pitching matchup: RHP Cristian Javier (2-0, 0.83 ERA, 0.78 WHIP) vs RHP Erick Fedde (2-2, 3.90 ERA, 1.43 WHIP)
Season series: The Astros lead 1-0 after Friday’s 6-1 victory.
Did you know: The Astros and Nationals are playing for the first time since Washington beat Houston 4-3 in the 2019 World Series. The road team won all seven games. … Astros manager Dusty Baker managed Washington in 2016-17.
About the Astros
Hits & Misses: Houston has tied the New York Yankees for the longest winning streak in baseball this season, and it’s all about pitching. The Astros have allowed a mere 12 runs in the 11 straight victories, good for a 0.91 ERA. On Friday, Houston staked starter Framber Valdez to five runs in the top of the first inning, and he allowed only one run in 7.2 innings in a 6-1 victory. The Astros have allowed three runs once during the streak, with five shutouts along the way. Houston hasn’t been dominant at the plate, but the Astros haven’t needed it. Friday marked only the third time during the streak that Houston scored more than five runs. Strong pitching and so-so hitting have made the Astros an Under machine at 24-9 overall and 9-2 during the streak. The Astros were 11-11 on May 1 but now lead the AL West by a half-game at 22-11.
Javier vs Nationals: The right-hander has excelled as the part-time “sixth” starter for the Astros. He is 2-0 in his two starts (out of six appearances), allowing two runs on six hits in 10.1 innings with eight strikeouts and four walks. He has a 0.83 ERA for the season, allowing only the two runs on 11 hits in 21.2 innings with 25 strikeouts and six walks. In his most recent outing, he threw three no-hit innings in relief.
Key injuries: 2B Jose Altuve is expected to have the day off Saturday, Baker said. Altuve was lifted in the ninth inning Friday as a precautionary measure after slipping on the grass. SS Jeremy Pena (right knee) is questionable Saturday after sitting out Friday.
About the Nationals
Hits & Misses: Washington’s 11-23 record is its worst after 34 games since opening 9-25 in 2007, and the Nationals appear well on their way to their third straight losing season since winning the 2019 World Series. Washington has lost seven of nine and is a lowly 4-14 at home this season. The Nationals are tied for the fourth-best team batting average (.252) in baseball but are 24th in home runs (24). Meanwhile, Nationals pitchers have the third-worst team ERA (4.77).
Fedde vs Astros: The right-hander has had only one truly bad outing this season when he allowed seven runs (six earned) in 3.1 innings in an 11-2 loss to Arizona on April 20. Fedde has not allowed more than two runs in any other start, and the Nationals are 3-3 when he takes the mound. In his last outing, he pitched five scoreless innings and got a no-decision in Washington’s 5-4 loss to the Los Angeles Angels, though he walked five with only four strikeouts. Fedde is 3-1 with a 3.33 ERA in 12 lifetime appearances against American League opponents.
Key injuries: SS Alcides Escobar (infected fingernail) returned to the lineup Friday after missing three games.
Notable Trends
- HOU is 11-0 in its last 11 overall
- HOU is 5-0 in its last five as a road favorite
- WAS is 2-7 in its last nine overall
- WAS is 4-14 at home this season
- Under is 24-9 in HOU games this season, including 7-1 in the last eight
- Over is 6-2-1 in the teams’ last nine meetings
Astros vs Nationals Odds and Action
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET: With first pitch about an hour out, Houston is down to -143 in TwinSpires Sportsbook’s Astros vs Nationals odds market. The Astros, who opened at -160, are still seeing 82% of moneyline bets and 70% of moneyline cash.
“Sharp play on Nats moneyline,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said of what caused the adjustment.
The total opened at 8.5 (Over -125) and is down just a few cents to 8.5 (Over -121). Tickets and money are both in the 2/1 range on the Under.
UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET: Several hours ahead of first pitch, Houston is a -160 and Washington a +140 underdog in DraftKings’ Astros vs Nationals odds market. The moneyline opened early Friday at Houston -150/Washington +130, peaked at -180/+155 earlier this morning, then bottomed out late this morning at Astros -150/Nats +130.
In the past hour so, the price rebounded to the current Houston -160/Washington +140. The Astros are taking a hefty 92% of early moneyline bets, but that’s translating into just 56% of moneyline cash.
The total has been at several iterations of 9, save for a short stint at 8.5 (Over -120) this morning. It’s currently 9 (Under -120), with early ticket count 3/1 and early money 5/1 on the Under.