Welcome to the start of the NBA playoffs — well, kind of. Tuesday features the first round of the NBA play-in tournament, with the Cavaliers battling the Nets in the Eastern Conference and the Timberwolves hosting the Clippers in the Western Conference. And you know what that means: Yep, another chance to bag a few bucks with Tuesday NBA props!
While the stakes have changed for the teams on the court, the goal from our perspective has not: help you make money. Throughout the play-in tournament and on into the playoffs, Props.com will present our top NBA props selections from the day’s action, then do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
With that, let’s dive into our favorite NBA Props from Tuesday’s two-game slate.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 1:45 p.m. ET on April 12.
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Cleveland Cavaliers: SG Caris LeVert
The prop: 17.5 points
The odds: Over -110/Under -110
The Cavaliers started the year red hot, but they limped to the finish line, losing 15 of their final 24 games. Their reward for that slump? A first-round play-in matchup vs. the Nets, who remain the betting favorites to win the conference and one of the top three teams in the NBA title futures market. Not good if you’re Cleveland fan.
For the Cavs to pull the road upset Tuesday — they were up to 9.5-point underdogs at DraftKings as of midday — they’re going to need to someone other than Darius Garland to generate some offense. Garland (team-best 21.7 points and 8.6 rebound per game) has been phenomenal this season. But he simply can’t outperform Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving by himself.
That brings us to Caris LeVert, who is the most logical candidate to serve as Garland’s scoring sidekick. LeVert’s minutes restriction was lifted over the final nine regular-season games, and he responded with an average of 15.1 points over 33.3 minutes per game. Those numbers would be slightly higher if not for a light workload in Sunday’s finale against Milwaukee (six points in 29 minutes).
Expect LeVert to play closer to 36 minutes Tuesday, because that’s what Cleveland needs to have a chance. Also, the Nets represent a nice matchup from a scoring perspective. They rank just 20th in defensive efficiency this season, and they’ve played at the sixth-fastest pace over their past 10 games.
Granted, LeVert finished with just 16 points in Friday’s game at Brooklyn. In fact, he’s scored more than 17 points just three times in his last 17 games. But this is a totally different situation, as the Cavs can punch their playoff ticket with a victory Tuesday. That probably won’t happen, but it won’t be because LeVert didn’t do his part.
Play the Over on this NBA prop.
Los Angeles Clippers: SF Marcus Morris
The prop: 13.5 points
The odds: Over -120/Under -105
Unlike Cavs-Nets, oddsmakers expect Tuesday’s nightcap in Minnesota to be quite competitive. Although Los Angeles is a slight underdog, there are reasons to be optimistic about the Clippers’ chances.
For starters, they’ll have their full complement of top players (minus Kawhi Leonard) for one of the few times all year. That includes Marcus Morris, a 13-year veteran who’s still a capable player when called upon. Morris’ playing time was down over the final few weeks of the regular season, but the Clippers really had nothing to play for down the stretch. They’ve been essentially locked into the No. 8 seed for a while now, so it made no sense to push their veteran players.
With Los Angeles’ season on the line this week, Morris should return to his usual 30-plus minutes, making him an appealing buy-low candidate Tuesday. The 32-year-old former Kansas star played at least 28 minutes in 30 games this season, and he scored at least 15 points in 22 of them. For the season, he’s averaged 15.4 points in 29.0 minutes.
Morris is facing the ideal opponent Tuesday, too, as the Timberwolves played at the fastest pace in the league this season. They also ranked 27th in defensive efficiency over the final 10 games of the year.
Morris appeared in just one of four meetings against the TWolves this season, and he put up just 12 points. But he barely played 24 minutes. He’ll be on the floor a lot longer than that Tuesday — and he absolutely should produce more than those 12 points.
Minnesota Timberwolves: PG D’Angelo Russell
The prop: 28.5 points/rebounds/assists
The odds: Over -110/Under -125
D’Angelo Russell sat out the Timberwolves’ final two games of the regular season, but he’s been hot recently. He scored at least 17 points in each of his past three contests, racking up at least 31 points/rebounds/assists each time.
Russell is capable of beating teams in multiple ways. He had a bit of a down year as a scorer, averaging 18.1 points per game. And his shooting numbers — 41.1 percent from the field and 34.0 percent from 3-point range — were below his career averages. However, he made up for it with a career-best 7.1 assists per game and contributed at least three rebounds in 43 of 65 games.
That gives us a few different ways to hit the Over on this prop. Russell can have a big game as a distributor. He can knock down more shots than usual. Or he can luck into a few additional rebounds.
Yes, the Clippers are a tough matchup — especially with their best players all back in the fold — but this number is priced a smidge low in the Tuesday NBA odds market. Let’s go Over one more time and back Russell to top this points/rebounds/assists number for the fourth consecutive game.