One of the worst things to ever happen to me – all right fine, one of the worst things to ever happen to me when it comes to gambling – was when the NFL decided to ditch the Pro Bowl.
Remember the Pro Bowl? It ran through 2022. It would take place in Hawaii, the week after the Super Bowl, and it would be completely and utterly unwatchable. It was “football” in name only. It was the single worst All-Star game in sports.
But if you played DFS, there was a skeleton key. Tight ends were dominant.
Why? Because according to the Pro Bowl rules, a tight end had to be on the field for every play, there were only two tight ends per roster, and most importantly, defenses had to play a 4-3 alignment, no blitzing was allowed, the deep safety had to play inside the hash marks, and no nickel or dime packages were allowed.
In short, this meant the Travis Kelces and Delanie Walkers of the world didn’t have to block and were always facing up against a linebacker.
In 2022’s game, the four tight ends combined for a 12-146-3 line.
In 2020 (2021 was canceled due to COVID), only three tight ends played, and they combined for a 13-139-2 line.
In 2019, three again, 7-77-2.
In 2018, 15-132-2.
2017? 12-126-2
And so on.
For those keeping score at home, 44%(!) of all Pro Bowl offensive touchdowns in that five-year span were scored by tight ends. To give some idea of the ridiculousness of that number, tight ends scored 10% of the touchdowns this year, in total.
Even better, you could get a handle on which tight ends were probably going to get the most work, with the first-time Pro Bowlers consistently outperforming the “regulars.”
For people who knew this – and this was not hidden knowledge, just look at the box scores – it became a DFS printfest. Showdown, play all the tight ends and a quarterback or three, and you would win money.
What was crazy about this is that it kept working, year after year. Despite the feeling that everyone knows everything about DFS, the Pro Bowl was decidedly not solved. There was still an edge to be had.
THINGS I MISS
1) My youthful innocence.
2) Playing 4 tight ends in Pro Bowl DFS tournaments and printing money.
3) Grandma. pic.twitter.com/uwpuE2vjOB
— Jeff Edelstein (@jeffedelstein) February 4, 2024
Of course, go back to the beginnings of DFS, and just showing up with some basic knowledge of how the game worked was edge enough.
And one would think these edges would just disappear over time, that smart play would always win out.
Welllllllll …
Not so much.
There’s still edge in NFL playoff best ball contests. Basically, in order to win the Underdog or DraftKings best ball contests, you simply have to have players playing.
This may sound obvious, but … I’ve yet to be in a draft room – and granted, I’m playing the lowest stakes possible – that had a “perfect” draft. People are still drafting the best players instead of the best combination of players.
In short: You can draft an all-star team that gets you through the first round of the tournament, but unless you stack a team (ideally two) that keeps winning through the Super Bowl, you simply cannot win the top prize. It’s literally impossible to do so, as the scoring resets each week.
Another best ball contest this year provided a similar edge.
Underdog ran “The Scramble” for the PGA. It runs similar to the NFL playoff best ball contests, in that the “season” is broken into four seven-week stretches. Win your six-man mini-tournament, go on to the next round, and so forth.
And again, every draft I was in, there was an edge to be had, as most drafters were taking golfers who simply were not going to be playing in the majority of tournaments. Furthermore, they were taking players who were not going to be playing in more than half of the first set of tournaments. Very literally, about half the teams I saw drafted were DOA.
Two weeks in, I’m advancing 40% of my teams, instead of the mathematically-assumed 16.7%
Will it last? Who knows. But I’m positive that I had the edge drafting my teams.
Bottom line? Edges still exist in DFS and best ball, and as someone who has been playing for over a decade, I would’ve thought all the edges would have been smoothed out by now.
They haven’t, there’s more I haven’t mentioned, and I’m sure there’s some I don’t know about. But I promise you I’m going to keep looking.
In the meantime, I’m gonna go pour one out for the Pro Bowl. Miss ya ol’ pal.
