Welcome to the NBA Betting Dime. If you missed the debut edition, it’s a weekly basketball column that combines some of the game’s best aspects. You can expect to find some analytical deep dives, social media clips, gambling information, and maybe some dumb pop culture references sprinkled in.
This week’s edition will touch on a historic MVP race, why the Celtics could be worth a sprinkle in the futures market, and if you should bet on the Lakers to miss the playoffs.
However, let’s start by digging into James Harden’s start with the 76ers:
1. Biid And The Beard
Harden has played five games with the 76ers, and there were some questions about how he’d fit with the team. How would he mesh with Joel Embiid? Is he on the decline? Would the 76ers miss the floor spacing of Seth Curry?
It’s still too early to make any definitive statements, but the early returns are promising. Philadelphia won each of those first five contests, including a big win over the Bulls on Monday.
Harden’s numbers in those outings have also been spectacular. He’s made 53.1%% of his field-goal attempts and 44.8% of his 3-pointers, and he’s also averaged 8.4 made free throws. That combination of 3-point prowess and the ability to get to the rim is what has made Harden so difficult to defend throughout his career. Harden was shooting just 41.4% from the field and 33.2% from 3-point range during his 44 games with the Nets this season, so he’s been markedly better in Philly (so far at least).
More importantly, Harden’s presence has only seemed to help Embiid. Philly’s big man is averaging 32.6 points per game in five tilts alongside Harden, and he’s shot just under 48% from the field.
Overall, Harden and Embiid have shared the court for 128 minutes. The 76ers are averaging a ridiculous 131.5 points per 100 possessions over that time frame. That’s a truly incredible number. To put that in perspective, the Jazz lead the league with an average of 115.8 points per 100 possessions for the year. The 76ers’ offense with Harden and Embiid has the potential to be legen — wait for it — dary.
The 76ers have also held their own on the defensive end. Philadelphia has allowed just 103.0 points per 100 possessions with Harden and Embiid on the floor, which would also be the best full-season mark in the league.
Add it all up, and the 76ers have posted a ridiculous +28.5 Net Rating with Harden and Embiid playing together. That number will clearly come back to reality as they log more minutes alongside each other, but this duo has the potential to be the best in the NBA.
Remember, the 76ers got Harden at essentially no cost to their current roster. They had to give up a promising player in Ben Simmons, but he seemed pretty committed to never suiting up for Philly again. It also cost them two draft picks, which won’t matter if this team can win a title.
The only thing it cost the 76ers in the short term is Curry. He’s blossomed into one of the premier floor spacers in basketball, but the 76ers have other players who can fill that role. Tyrese Maxey is shooting 40.0% from 3-point range in his sophomore season while Danny Green is shooting 37.5%.
Ultimately, this move felt like a no-brainer for the 76ers, but they’re still not being priced among the favorites in the futures market. They’re available at +650 across most of the industry, but they’re still available at +700 on FanDuel Sportsbook. That puts them significantly behind the Nets and in the same ballpark as the Bucks and Heat. If the 76ers continue to play this well, they won’t be available at that number for long.
2. The New Human Highlight Reel
I recently anointed a massive Embiid dunk as the dunk of the year, but it didn’t hold the top spot for long. There is a new leader in the clubhouse, and it comes from a very fitting source.
This season has belonged to Ja Morant. He has vaulted the Grizzlies all the way from the lottery to third place in the Western Conference, and he’s unleashed several jaw-dropping highlights.
Morant had a legendary performance last Monday vs. the Spurs. It started with an absolute hammer over Jakob Poeltl:
DUNK OF THE YEAR CANDIDATE 🔥@JAMORANT IS ON ANOTHER LEVEL. pic.twitter.com/9sXA4vzrJ8
— Bally Sports South (@BallySportsSO) March 1, 2022
That is one of the best in-game dunks I’ve ever seen. He didn’t just dunk on Poeltl, he took off basically from the free-throw line. It was insanely disrespectful, and the type of thing we’ve come to expect from Morant.
Little did we know, he was just getting started. He ended the first half with one of the most insane buzzer-beaters of all time:
There's no words for Ja Morant at this point. Unreal. pic.twitter.com/JgdalqABjB
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) March 1, 2022
Just in case you missed it, that’s a full-court, Hail Mary buzzer-beater with just 0.4 seconds left on the clock. I could give you and your friends 100 attempts to recreate that shot – even without defenders – and you’d never pull it off.
Morant also drilled a logo 3-pointer and finished with a franchise-record 52 points:
Ja Morant did this all in one game 😳
✅ Deep three
✅ Poster dunk
✅ Wild buzzer-beater
✅ Franchise-record 52 Pts#Grizz #GrindCity pic.twitter.com/VqSUIW5DPE— Asim ♍️ (@AsimJmail) March 1, 2022
Seriously, what else can this guy do? At this point, I’d be surprised if he didn’t sweep up the stadium, wash the uniforms, and fly the team plane. He has officially overtaken Zion Williamson as the most exciting young player in the league, and it will be interesting to see if his game can continue to grow moving forward. Regardless, the Grizzlies’ future is extremely bright.
3. An MVP Race For The Ages
There are some years where there are no real MVPs and some years where there are too many. This happens to be one of the latter.
Embiid and Nikola Jokic are locked in a heavyweight clash for the award, and both guys keep throwing massive punches left and right. Just when you think one guy has started to pull away, the other delivers a huge performance.
Jokic continues to do everything for the Nuggets. He leads the team in virtually every statistical category, and he’s on pace to basically rewrite the advanced metrics record book. The Nuggets have increased their Net Rating by +20.6 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the floor this season, and he has an otherwise uninspiring roster on the verge of a guaranteed playoff spot. If you’re going by the traditional definition of “value,” it’s hard to argue for anyone other than Jokic.
He delivered one of his best games of the season Sunday vs. the Pelicans. The team appeared to be headed for a loss, down double-digits late in the fourth quarter. Then Jokic went nuclear. He scored 30 of his 46 points in the fourth quarter and overtime, which was enough to lead the Nuggets to a victory. He also delivered his usual brilliance in the peripheral categories, racking up 13 points, 11 rebounds, three steals, and four blocks. If that wasn’t enough, he also shot 16-22 from the field and 3-5 from 3-point range. It was one of the most dominant complete basketball games that I’ve ever seen.
Jokic’s outburst meant that Embiid had to answer, and he did just that vs. the Bulls. He eviscerated a team that was at the top of the East standings not that long ago, finishing with 43 points, 14 rebounds, two assists, two steals, and three blocks.
With the dust temporarily settled, Embiid remains a slight MVP favorite across the industry. His best price is -115 on PointsBet, while Jokic is available at +200 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Both players have at least 17 games left to try and change the voter’s minds, and it should be extremely enjoyable for basketball fans. My money is still with Jokic, but both players are making it cool to be a big man again.
4. Is There Value In Fading The Lakers?
Calling this season a disappointment for the Lakers is an understatement. They entered the year with the best odds to win the Western Conference, and they trailed only the Nets in odds to win the NBA Finals. The Lakers were just two years removed from winning a championship, and they added a third “star” in Russell Westbrook during the offseason. It seemed like they were poised to improve upon their lackluster performance from last year.
But to quote the great Chris Berman, “That’s why they play the games.”
Westbrook has obviously not lived up to his superstar billing, and Anthony Davis has missed plenty of time with injuries. The rest of the Lakers’ core is comprised of old, declining players who have been unable to pick up the slack. That’s left LeBron James the Sisyphean task of trying to carry this team to victory on a nightly basis.
The Lakers have dipped to ninth place in the Western Conference standings, and they’re a full 4.5 games behind the eighth-place Clippers. They lead the Pelicans by just 1.5 games in the standings, and they’re just three games ahead of the Spurs.
It seems impossible that this team will miss the play-in tournament altogether – the bottom of the Western Conference is that bad – but the Lakers have won just two of their past 10 games. If they continue to limp towards the finish line, it’s possible that two of the Pelicans, Blazers, Spurs, and Kings can pass them.
With that in mind, does it make sense to wager against the Lakers making the playoffs? Their odds of missing the playoffs have plummeted to -320 on FanDuel, which translates to an implied probability of approximately 23.8%.
That may seem like an unappealing number, but I would argue that it has some value. The Ringer’s NBA Playoffs model gives the Lakers just a 15% chance of qualifying for the postseason.
The biggest reason to be bearish on the Lakers is their remaining schedule. They have one of the toughest final stanzas in the league, with just six of their final 18 contests coming at home. They also have to navigate a brutal set of opponents, with 50% of their remaining games coming against the Suns, Warriors, 76ers, Nuggets, Mavericks, or Cavaliers.
I still think the Lakers sneak into the play-in tournament, but they’re going to do it in one of the final two spots. That means they’re going to have to win two consecutive games to win the postseason, with at least one of them coming on the road. I’ll never count out LeBron, but -320 feels pretty generous all things considered.
5. The Worst In-Arena Contest Of All Time?
One of the best things about NBA League Pass is the ability to purchase a package without commercials. It costs an extra $100 or so, but believe me, it’s a worthy investment.
Sometimes, you’ll get some horrendous performances from contestants, including the world’s worst game of tic-tac-toe:
#ICYMI: If this game of tic-tac-toe doesn't infuriate you, you aren't human. (📹 via @NBCSNorthwest) pic.twitter.com/Jn6HJMGqnb
— Stadium (@Stadium) February 10, 2018
Even the guy commenting on it has no idea what’s going on.
Other times, though, the entertainment is in the game itself. The Timberwolves recently had a game that required a grown man to get on his hands and knees and search for the team mascot while blindfolded:
if youre wondering what happens during the tv timeouts of NBA games pic.twitter.com/n2UbwZPtmx
— Rob Perez (@WorldWideWob) March 8, 2022
This man’s prize for going through such humiliation? A hat. One lousy hat!
I’m trying to think of what I would accept as a prize to participate in this event, and I’m struggling to come up with an answer. I think I’d have to officially dress as the 12th man for the Timberwolves in their following game. I don’t need any court time, just let me sit there and high-five the players. Short of that, this game’s gonna be a no from me, dawg.
6. The Second Half Matters
You hear lots of talk about momentum in sports. Some people think it’s overrated, some people think it’s necessary to win in the playoffs. “They’re getting hot at the right time” is something I expect to hear a lot over the coming months, especially during March Madness.
That said, there might be something to it. I decided to investigate if there’s any correlation between playing well following the All-Star break and success during the postseason, and there might be something there.
The 2012-13 Heat were the best team ever following the All-Star break, posting a record of 30-2 down the stretch. They would go on to win the NBA title.
The Bulls are far from an anomaly. The 1999-00 Lakers, 1984-85 Lakers, 1995-96 Bulls, and 1986-87 Lakers also own top-seven winning percentages all-time in the second half of the year, and they would also win titles. The two biggest exceptions were the 1996-97 Jazz – who lost in the Finals to Michael Jordan – and the 1994-95 Spurs, who lost in the Western Conference Finals. The Suns finished with the best second-half record last year and would also go on to make the Finals.
This isn’t enough to draw any sort of definitive conclusion. Most of these teams featured an all-time great player, so I’m not suggesting that you unload your sportsbook account on any random team that finishes strong.
Still, I do think it’s something to consider. Good teams that are playing well heading into the playoffs could definitely be worth some added attention in the futures market.
We still have a ways to go, but there are a few teams with just one loss so far in the second half. The 76ers are one of them, as are the Heat, Bucks, and Celtics in the East. In the West, the Nuggets, Timberwolves, and Mavericks all have just one loss. The Heat, Nuggets, and Timberwolves have all gone 6-1, while the rest of those teams are sitting at 5-1.
The Celtics are the team that intrigues me most. They’re available at +2200 to win the NBA Finals and +950 to win the East, and there could be some value with those numbers. This team clearly has talent, led by two of the best young players in basketball in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. If they’re starting to put things together, they could be a very tough out in the playoffs. I like the idea of adding a bit of exposure to them in my portfolio.
7. Karl-Anthony Towns: Greatest Shooting Big-Man Ever?
Towns made headlines earlier this season by proclaiming himself the greatest shooting big man in league history. That drew some laughs, including from Dirk Nowitzki:
Dirk Nowitzki on the broadcast, heard what Karl-Anthony Towns said about himself the other day: "There's the best shooting big man in the world!" pic.twitter.com/yZg26cfAJM
— Tas Melas (@TasMelas) December 22, 2021
However, that claim might not be as ridiculous as it seems on the surface.
Towns made history at the All-Star break, becoming the first true center to win the 3-point shooting competition. He capped things with a score of 29 in the final round, which was good enough to outlast Luke Kennard and Trae Young:
🚨 Karl-Anthony Towns opens the final round of #MtnDew3PT with 29! 🚨
2 shooters left on TNT. #NBAAllStar #StateFarmSaturday pic.twitter.com/lyfAOUv6Es
— NBA (@NBA) February 20, 2022
More importantly for bettors, Towns was listed as high as +1300 to win the event, so bettors who took a shot on him were rewarded handsomely.
Towns’ shooting exploits aren’t just for exhibitions either. He’s a career 39.6% 3-point shooter, and he’s shooting 40.4% on an average of 5.0 attempts per game. That puts him on pace to finish above 40% from 3-point range on at least 3.0 attempts per game for the fourth time in his career. Channing Frye, Kelly Olynyk, and Anthony Tolliver are the only other big men to do it more than once, and each of those guys only did it twice. None of those players are near the same caliber as Towns in the other facets of the game as well.
That said, comparing him to other big men just simply isn’t fair. Big men weren’t asked to shoot the ball from deep for the first 50+ years of the NBA. Could an elite mid-range shooter have become an elite 3-point shooter if they were given the chance? It’s possible.
That’s why Nowitzki will always wear the crown in my eyes. He wasn’t just an all-time great NBA player; he literally changed the way the game is played. Until Towns does that, there’s really no comparison.
8. The Return Of Markelle Fultz
You have to feel bad for Fultz. His career has hit one stumbling block after the next, with the most recent being a torn ACL that he suffered last season. The former No. 1 overall pick has played in just 117 games since being drafted in 2017. To put that in comparison, Tatum has played 351 regular season contests out of the same draft class.
With that in mind, it’s awesome to see Fultz back on the court for the Magic. It’s unclear how he fits in the team’s future plans – they’ve drafted two point guards in Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs – but Fultz has something to offer someone. He’s averaged 16.8 minutes over his four games so far this season, and he’s shot 54.8% from the field.
People will always play the “What if” game with Fultz. What if the 76ers took Tatum over him? What if he never developed the yips? What if he never got hurt? Personally, I’m ready to see what he can do.
9. R.J. Barrett Makes The Leap
The Knicks have been craving a superstar ever since losing Patrick Ewing. They briefly found some success with Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire, but they weren’t able to sustain it long term. They’ve made big pushes for guys like LeBron James and Kevin Durant only to come up short.
They’ve also come up short time and time again in the NBA Draft. The Knicks famously had the eighth pick in the year when Steph Curry went seventh. They drafted Iman Shumpert directly after Kawhi Leonard and Nikola Vucevic and one pick ahead of Tobias Harris. They had the third pick when Williamson and Morant went in the top two. Perhaps it’s karma for winning the Patrick Ewing lottery thanks to the frozen envelope.
However, Barrett is proving himself to be a quality consolation prize. He’s averaging 24.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 3.7 assists over his past 24 games while shooting 39.0% from 3-point range. Those aren’t All-Star caliber, but they’re a big step in the right direction.
Barrett hasn’t led the Knicks to many wins this season, but he could play a huge role for the team off the court. Zion is reportedly unhappy in New Orleans, and he may try to force a trade in the offseason. Could Zion want to team up with former Duke teammates Barrett and Cam Reddish in New York, the place he supposedly wanted to get drafted by? Crazier things have happened.
The Knicks have constantly sabotaged themselves with bad free agent signings, and they made some dreadful moves once again last offseason. However, Barrett gives the team a glimmer of hope in what has otherwise been a dark year.
10. The Ja Morant Market Heats Up
Just in case you guys didn’t already realize this, I’m a massive nerd. Among my nerdiest hobbies is collecting sports cards. There are plenty of reasons why sports cards have exploded of late, but it seems like plenty of people are getting back into the hobby that they abandoned around middle school.
Like most things in life, the sports card market feeds off the hype. No one wants the current Hall of Famers; instead, they want to chase the next big thing.
With that in mind, it’s not surprising that Morant’s cards have heated up recently. A Morant rookie patch autograph card – otherwise known as an RPA – recently sold on eBay for a whopping $150,000:
That is a serious chunk of change for a player who just made their first All-Star game.
It’s easy to see why people love Morant, but I can’t help but wonder if there aren’t better uses for that money. Thank goodness sports cards weren’t a massive investment back when Derrick Rose was dominating, otherwise, a lot of people would’ve gone bankrupt.
Still, it’s fun to get in on the action. I recently had the Hornets in a break, meaning I would receive all of the Hornets cards that came out of the boxes being opened. That’s a big deal when you’re chasing LaMelo Ball rookies, and I was lucky enough to hit a monster:
Just had the Hornets in a break and hit the biggest card of my life. Speechless at the moment. pic.twitter.com/ndMMPynYBd
— Matt LaMarca (@MattLaMarca) March 1, 2022
Shout out to my man Freidman over at Binky Breaks for the pull.
I’ll probably sell it because I’m a “bird in the hand is worth two in the bush” kind of guy, but boy is it tempting to keep it. If Morant cards can get to $150,000, why can’t Ball? And $150,000 is chump change for a Luka Doncic card, one of which sold for a whopping $4.6M.
All of this is to say, if gambling and fantasy aren’t enough of a thrill ride for you, consider getting back into the card game. The swings are wild, the highs are high, and the waters under the Golden Gate bridge are freezing.