For each week of the NFL season, we provide the best Patrick Mahomes prop bets. The Chiefs’ next game is Sunday, Jan. 21 against the Buffalo Bills.
Best Patrick Mahomes Player Props Bets vs. Bills
As the Kansas City Chiefs prepare to face the Buffalo Bills in a pivotal AFC Divisional Round matchup, all eyes are on Patrick Mahomes. The superstar quarterback is set to play his first playoff road game, a new challenge in his illustrious career. With the Chiefs’ offense not as explosive as in previous seasons, Mahomes’ performance will be critical, especially against a Bills defense that has been strong but is currently dealing with numerous injuries. His ability to adapt and overcome in a hostile environment will be key to Kansas City’s success.
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Patrick Mahomes Over 35.5 Passing – Attempts (-130)
Patrick Mahomes is known for his ability to lead a high-volume passing attack, and the statistics suggest he will continue this trend against the Buffalo Bills. With a line set at 35.5 passing attempts, Mahomes has surpassed this number in 6 out of his last 10 games, averaging 37.3 attempts. Moreover, his season mean of 37.31 and a hit rate of 62.5% for going over the line further support the likelihood of him having to throw frequently. Considering the Bills’ potent offense, it’s plausible that the Chiefs will find themselves in a shootout, necessitating Mahomes to air it out to keep pace. Additionally, with the Bills’ defense potentially missing key players, Mahomes might exploit these gaps through the air, leading to an increased number of passing attempts.
Patrick Mahomes Over 24.5 Passing – Completions (-110)
Patrick Mahomes’ prop for passing completions is set at 24.5, and there’s a strong case for the over. Mahomes has hit this mark in 5 out of his last 10 games, with a last 10 average of 24.8 completions. His overall season mean of 25.06 completions per game and a 50% hit rate for going over the line indicate a consistent ability to connect with his receivers. The Bills’ secondary is dealing with injuries, which could lead to more opportunities for Mahomes to complete passes. Furthermore, the high-stakes nature of the playoff game against a formidable opponent like Buffalo will likely require Mahomes to maintain a high level of play and utilize his passing game to its fullest extent, increasing the chances of him achieving a high number of completions.
All Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Picks for Sunday, Jan 21
| Player Name | Prop | Line | Over Rate | Over Odds | Under Odds | Last 10 Average | Projection | Our Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | Passing Attempts | 35.5 | 6/10 | -130 | +100 | 37.3 | 38.03 | Over |
| Patrick Mahomes | Completions | 24.5 | 5/10 | -110 | -120 | 24.8 | 25.19 | Over |
| Patrick Mahomes | Interceptions | 0.5 | 7/10 | -125 | -105 | 0.9 | 1.06 | Over |
| Patrick Mahomes | Longest Pass | 34.5 | 6/10 | -115 | -115 | 38.3 | 37.42 | Over |
| Patrick Mahomes | Passing Touchdowns | 1.5 | 5/10 | -140 | +110 | 1.6 | 1.39 | Under |
| Patrick Mahomes | Passing Yards | 253.5 | 4/10 | -115 | -115 | 259.0 | 258.00 | Over |
| Patrick Mahomes | Passing And Russhing Yards | 288.5 | 3/10 | -115 | -115 | 279.4 | 278.28 | Under |
| Patrick Mahomes | Rushing Attempts | 4.5 | 4/10 | -110 | -120 | 4.6 | 4.31 | Under |
| Patrick Mahomes | Rushing Yards | 28.5 | 3/10 | -120 | -110 | 20.4 | 19.75 | Under |
Patrick Mahomes Stats for the 2023/24 NFL Season
- Passing Interceptions Per Game
- Season: 0.88
- Visitor: 1.14
- vs. Buffalo: 1.0
- Passing Completions Per Game
- Season: 25.06
- Visitor: 25.29
- vs. Buffalo: 25.0
- Passing Longest Pass Per Game
- Season: 38.44
- Visitor: 39.14
- vs. Buffalo: 23.0
- Passing Touchdowns Per Game
- Season: 1.69
- Visitor: 1.43
- vs. Buffalo: 1.0
- Passing Attempts Per Game
- Season: 37.31
- Visitor: 36.29
- vs. Buffalo: 43.0
- Passing Yards Per Game
- Season: 261.44
- Visitor: 263.14
- vs. Buffalo: 271.0
- Rushing Attempts Per Game
- Season: 4.69
- Visitor: 4.14
- vs. Buffalo: 1.0
- Rushing Yards Per Game
- Season: 24.31
- Visitor: 18.71
- vs. Buffalo: 8.0
- Passing and Rushing Yards Per Game
- Season: 285.75
- Visitor: 281.86
- vs. Buffalo: 279.0
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 21
- Time: 06:30 PM
- Location: Highmark Stadium – Buffalo, NY
- TV: CBS