The Heat are set to face the Houston Rockets on Monday, Jan 8. The game is scheduled for 7:30 ET while airing on BSSU. Miami enters this game as 4-point favorites with the total set at 219.5. How will this one play out? Let’s dive into the Heat vs Rockets predictions below.
Heat vs. Rockets Odds
- Spread: Heat -4
- Total 219.5
Odds via FanDuel SportsBook. New To FanDuel? Check out our FanDuel Sportsbook Review to find out how to redeem a $1,000 risk-free bet!
Game Info
- Date: Monday, Jan 8
- Time: 7:30 ET
- Location: Kaseya Center, Miami FL
- TV: BSSU
Rockets Betting Trends
- Over their last five games, the Rockets have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.
- Although Houston has a straight up record of 3-7 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 5-4-1. The team averaged 112 points per game in these games.
- Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Rockets have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
Heat Betting Trends
- In their last five games, the Heat have an over/under record of 4-1 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.
- Through their last ten home games, Miami has an ATS record of just 5-5. However, their overall record was 5-5 while averaging 107 points per game.
- As the betting favorite, the Heat have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight up record was 2-1.
Taking a Look at the Rockets Chances in Miami
Coming into their matchup with the Heat, the Rockets have an overall record of 18-16 and have gone 2-1 in their last three games. In Western Conference play, the Rockets are 14-10 and are 4-6 in non-conference games.
In their most recent game, the Rockets scored 112 points, which is the same as their average of 112.5 points per game. Looking at their last three games, the Rockets have an effective field goal percentage of 52.6%, compared to their season average of 53% (23rd). Over their last five games, the Rockets are 28th in three-point shooting percentage at 42.8%.
On the season, the Rockets are giving up just 109.9 points per game, which is the 2nd best mark in the NBA. However, on the road, they have been a bit more giving, allowing 115.8 points per contest (15th).
Overall, Houston has done a good job of defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 32.6% from beyond the arc (7th). In terms of steals, they are 23rd in the league at 7 per game.
One area where the Rockets have struggled is at the free-throw line, as they are 28th in the NBA in made free-throws allowed per game (26.7).
Will the Heat Live Up to Expectations at Home?
As of now, the Heat have an overall record of 20-15 and have gone 1-2 in their last three games. In the Eastern Conference, they currently hold the 8th spot and are 2nd in the Southeast division.
The Heat’s offense was below average in their most recent game, scoring 97 points and shooting 41% from the field. On the season, they are averaging 112.5 PPG. Bam Adebayo is the team’s leading scorer at 22 PPG, while Jimmy Butler is right behind him at 21 PPG.
When it comes to defense, the Miami Heat have been one of the best in the league this season, allowing just 111.6 points per game, which is 9th in the NBA. At home, they have been even better, giving up just 116.5 points per game, which is 21st in the league.
One area where the Heat have been particularly strong is in defending the three-point line. On the season, they are 17th in three-point percentage allowed at 36.7%. Over their last five games, they have been even better, ranking 3rd in the league at 30.5%.
Overall, opponents have scored less than their season average in 71.4% of games vs. the Heat. However, they have allowed opponents to make more threes than their season average in 60.0% of games.
Heat vs. Rockets Player Prop
A player prop we are looking at is Tyler Herro and his points prop of 21.5. Currently, the over for this prop is sitting at a payout of -129 while the under is at -106. Our model predicts that Tyler Herro will finish the game going 8/18 from the field and scoring 22 points. Our suggested wager is to bet on the over for his prop bet, which comes with a payout of -129.
- The Prop: Tyler Herro Over 21.5 Points (-129)
Heat vs. Rockets Predictions
The Rockets come in as the underdog at +4, making them our top choice on the point spread. We not only expect them to cover the spread but also believe they have a strong chance of winning the game outright, especially if you’re aiming for a higher moneyline payout.
As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 219.5, and our model projects the Rockets and Heat to reach a combined total of 229 points. Our bet is on taking the over.
The Pick: Rockets +4 | at Fanduel Sportsbook