Best Ball football is a burgeoning form of fantasy football where gamers draft a team, and that’s it. There’s no in-season management. Instead, lineups are optimized, meaning the highest scoring players at each position are in your weekly starting lineup.
Underdog Fantasy is the biggest platform for Best Ball. They’re currently running Underdog Best Ball Mania III drafts, a contest with a $25 entry and three payouts of at least $1 million — $1 million for the highest scoring team in the regular season (round 1), $1 million to the overall runner-up, and $2 million to the overall champion.
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4 Steals Based On Underdog Fantasy ADP
So now is the time to jump into the game if you’re not drafting. But, of course, it helps to know who are some of the undervalued players worth targeting. The following are four steals based on Underdog Fantasy ADP (average draft position).
1. Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco
Draft Position: RB #55
Underdog Fantasy ADP: 171.7
Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon are bets on the Kansas City Chiefs offense and a bet against underwhelming Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Further, the path looks clearer for both making the team after Ronald Jones played behind them in the preseason opener, aligning with reports from training camp about the club’s infatuation with Pacheco and Jones’ reps with the backups.
Pacheco playing on the opening drive with Patrick Mahomes will cause his Underdog Fantasy ADP to climb. Still, unless he rises into the 120s, he’ll remain a value. Pacheco was only a seventh-round pick in this year’s draft, but his athletic profile is jaw-dropping.
2. Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon
Draft Position: RB #63
Underdog Fantasy ADP: 204.7
McKinnon is also a worthwhile piece of exposure to the Chiefs, and gamers can double tap Kansas City’s running back room for cheap, selecting Pacheco and then McKinnon later. In the 2021 playoffs, Jet usurped running back duties from CEH. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), McKinnon had 34 rush attempts for 150 yards compared to only 13 rushes for 96 yards for CEH.
Additionally, McKinnon ran 111 routes, earning 17 targets for 14 receptions, 165 yards, one touchdown, and 1.49 Yards Per Route Run (Y/RR), much better than CEH’s 16 routes, four targets, two receptions, 13 yards, and 0.81 Y/RR. To add some perspective to McKinnon’s 1.49 Y/RR, it would have ranked 16th out of 51 backs with at least 30 targets in the regular season and postseason combined, directly ahead of Michael Carter’s 1.48 Y/RR. As a result, McKinnon has a reasonable chance to handle Kansas City’s passing-down and hurry-up work.
3. Commanders WR Jahan Dotson
Draft Position: WR #62
Underdog Fantasy ADP: 138.7
The Washington Commanders made Jahan Dotson the fifth receiver off the board in this year’s NFL Draft when they popped him with the 16th pick. There are many ways to analyze Dotson, including citing scouting reports. Instead, let’s look at the fantasy performances for similarly drafted wideouts.
Since 2012, there have been 11 receivers selected between pick 12 and 20 who played in their rookie season. According to Stathead, Odell Beckham Jr. was the most productive player from that sample, averaging 19.9 half-PPR points per game. The median half-PPR mark was 7.1 points. According to FantasyPros, 7.1 half-PPR points would have ranked as WR64 among receivers who played at least seven games in 2021. Therefore, Dotson looks like he’s being drafted at a reasonable range if he only hits his median outcome.
However, let’s look at another smaller sample of players. Since 2012, Dotson has been the fifth receiver to be fifth picked at his position and still lands in the first round. The others in that group were Rashod Bateman (27th in 2021), Justin Jefferson (22nd in 2020), Breshad Perriman (26th in 2015), and Kelvin Benjamin (28th in 2014). Perriman missed his entire draft year with a knee injury, Bateman’s 7.0 half-PPR points per game were the lowest among the group, Jefferson’s 14.2 was the highest, and Benjamin’s 12.5 was the median. The median mark from the trio would have ranked tied for WR17 in 2021.
The range of outcomes for Dotson is wide. Still, he’s likely being drafted closer to his median result than his higher ceiling. As long as he hits his median outcome, he’ll be a fair pick at cost, but his ceiling seemingly isn’t baked into his ADP. Therefore, Dotson is an excellent target who’s undervalued.
4. Bengals TE Hayden Hurst
Draft Position: TE #22
Underdog Fantasy ADP: 177.2
Hayden Hurst isn’t a sexy steal. Nevertheless, he’s undervalued among tight ends.
It’s all about team context when selecting non-elite tight ends. Only two top-10 scoring offenses didn’t have a top-20 scoring tight end in half-PPR scoring among tight ends who played more than five games. Additionally, the lowest ranked top tight end in a top-five offense was Jared Cook, tying for TE17. Further, surprising breakouts Dawson Knox (TE8) and Dalton Schultz (TE6) played on the third-highest and highest scoring teams in the NFL in 2021.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Cincinnati Bengals were tied for seventh in scoring (27.1 points per game). They also helped free-agent departure C.J. Uzomah to relevance in Underdog Best Ball last season. According to FantasyPros, Uzomah finished as the overall TE1 in half-PPR scoring formats twice and the TE12, TE14, TE17, TE19, and TE20, giving him two blow-up weeks and seven inside the top-20 tight ends last season.
According to PFF, Uzomah’s 461 routes were the 12th most among tight ends in the regular season. However, Uzomah wasn’t an exceptional talent, evidenced by his 1.07 Y/RR last season. Hurst was a little worse in 2021, with 1.00 Y/RR. However, in his career, he’s had 1.21 Y/RR. If he inherits the whole role vacated by Uzomah, Hurst should be a top-20 tight end, even if the Bengals make no changes to how they run their offense.
Yet, there’s a chance they open up the offense more after Joe Burrow’s excellent 2021 campaign, one year further removed from reconstructive knee surgery and with a bolstered offensive line.
Thus, Hurst is an attractive piece of cheap exposure to the Bengals. He should be picked at least a round earlier than his present ADP.
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