Here we go with our NBA playoff predictions and best bets ahead of the first round — which starts on Saturday, April 15. Two of our Props.com analysts surveyed all the NBA futures and props to find their favorite bets prior to the postseason. These can be anything from series bets, player props, player awards, conference winners, and championship winners.
Before we dive into these NBA playoff predictions, don’t forget to check out our Best NBA Player Props article for our favorite NBA props every day of the postseason.
NBA Playoff Predictions & Best Bets
These NBA playoff predictions were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article on Thursday, April 13.
Lakers To Win First Round Series Vs. Grizzlies (+120)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to Bet: Lakers to win series vs. Grizzlies | +120 on Caesars Sportsbook
The Lakers managed to record a comeback victory over the Timberwolves in the first round of the play-in tournament, setting up a postseason matchup vs. the Grizzlies. That’s about as good of a matchup as the Lakers could’ve hoped for. The Grizzlies are a solid team, but they don’t have a ton of playoff experience. This will be their third trip to the postseason since drafting Ja Morant, and they’ve yet to advance past the second round.
Experience obviously isn’t an issue for the Lakers. They’ve already won a championship since acquiring LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and LeBron brings as much postseason experience to the table as anyone in basketball history. He made 10 trips to the Finals, including a ridiculous eight straight with the Heat and Cavaliers.
Additionally, the Lakers have played excellent basketball over the second half of the year. They’re sixth in Net Rating since the All-Star break, trailing only the Warriors among Western Conference squads. That was despite not having LeBron or AD available for some of those contests. Their supporting cast has improved tremendously as the season has progressed, with guys like D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Rui Hachimura giving them quality minutes. Austin Reaves has also developed into an excellent complementary piece, so this team is far better than the one that started the year just 2-10.
Even at nearly 40 years old, the idea of grabbing LeBron as an underdog is too tempting to pass up.
Suns To Win The NBA Finals (+480)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Suns to win the finals | +480 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Sometimes, I don’t think people realize how good Kevin Durant is. The fact that he’s dealt with injuries and has changed teams frequently has jaded people about his on-court ability. For my money, he still might be the best offensive player in the entire league.
Durant was limited to just 47 games this season, but he turned in another absolute masterclass in scoring efficiency. He averaged 29.1 points per game – the fourth-highest mark of his career – while shooting 56.0% from the field, 40.4% from 3-point range, and 91.9% from the free throw line. That is absolutely absurd.
Durant was acquired by the Suns to be the piece that put them over the top, and they have yet to lose a game with him in the lineup. They’re a perfect 8-0, and while they haven’t played the toughest of schedules, that does include two wins over the Nuggets.
Durant will also have plenty of help from the Suns’ supporting cast. Devin Booker is a prodigious scorer in his own right, while Chris Paul will go down as one of the greatest point guards in NBA history. Deandre Ayton is a quality option at center.
The four-man combo of Durant, Booker, Paul, and Ayton played nearly 142 minutes together during the regular season, and they outscored their opponents by a whopping +14.9 points per 100 possessions. If they can sustain that level during the postseason, they could breeze through the Western Conference.
Trusting a team with such minimal court time together carries some risk, but this team is talented enough to overcome it. I think they ultimately win it all.
Lakers vs. Grizzlies Series Spread: LAL -1.5 Games (+165)
Analyst: Spencer Limbach
Where to bet: Lakers Series Spread: -1.5 Games | +165 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Like Matt’s write-up above, I like the Lakers to win this series. However, I’m going to be greedy here and bet them to win by (at least) two games. Essentially, the Lakers need to win the series 4-2, 4-1, or 4-0 for this bet to cash
Here’s another way to look at it: the Lakers win the series, but it doesn’t go to seven games. Any scenario that happens would make a winner of this wager.
No matter if you like it or not, Los Angeles is healthy and ready to make a Western Conference run. The Lakers are much better than their No. 7 seed suggests, and this squad is built for the postseason after acquiring several role players to surround LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Yes, Memphis has home-court advantage, but I don’t think we’ll get that far. The Lakers have the ability to take care of business and wrap things up in six games or less.
Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds Leader In PHX-LAC Series (+4000)
Analyst: Spencer Limbach
Where to bet: Kawhi Leonard Rebounds Leader in PHX-LAC Series | +4000 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Want to take a walk on the wild side? Take a look at Kawhi Leonard to lead the Suns-Clippers series in total rebounds. Yes, this is a longshot wager, but I believe we are getting fantastic odds on this playoff prop. Let me break it down for you:
- Leonard grabbed a game-high 15 rebounds against Phoenix on Sunday.
- In his last four games, Kawhi is averaging 7.5 rebounds per game.
- He’s going to see 40+ minutes per contest in these playoff games.
- Leonard’s playing time should dwarf that of other top rebounders like Ayton and Zubac.
Suns big man DeAndre Ayton is favored to lead this series in rebounds with Clippers center Ivica Zubac not far behind. Both are averaging 9.3 rebounds per game in the month of March.
However, we could see more small-ball lineups from both teams in this series. That favors Leonard to grab more rebounds. On top of that, I already mentioned the playing time discrepancy and the fact that Kawhi found 15 rebounds against the Suns last week.
This bet really isn’t as far-fetched as the +4000 odds imply.
