Here we go with our best college football bets for Week 5 of the NCAAF season.
Our Props.com analysts were asked to list their top two NCAAF picks for the weekend. You can view each writer’s overall record in the section towards the bottom of this article.
Also, don’t forget to check out our College Football Parlay Picks article for Week 5, as some of these picks are used in that article as well.
Best College Football Bets: Week 5
These best college football bets were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article.
Syracuse +6.5 (vs. Clemson)
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Syracuse +6.5 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
These two teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum this season. Syracuse has consistently been undervalued by Vegas, boasting a 3-0-1 against the spread (ATS) record. They’re beating the spread by an average of 13.9 points per game.
Clemson hasn’t performed nearly as well early in 2023. They own a 1-3 ATS record through four games. They’re also failing to beat the spread by an average of 8.1 points per game.
Syracuse quietly ranks in the top 22 of the country in points per play and points allowed per play. Overall, they rank 15th in the NCAA, averaging .320 more points per play than they’re allowing. Clemson hasn’t been as successful, ranking 63rd in points per play margin (-0.014) this season.
Keep in mind, this has quite a bit to do with schedule. Clemson’s faced off against Duke and Florida State, who are two elite teams. Syracuse’s best wins are against Purdue and Army at this point.
Both of these defenses have created turnovers this season. They’re both averaging 2.0 or more turnovers per game in 2023. The difference is Syracuse has protected the ball offensively while Clemson hasn’t.
Cade Klubnik’s upside is as clear as day, but he isn’t quite as good as he was projected prior to the season. It’s a home game for an undefeated team that is getting nearly a touchdown. This feels like a spot where Clemson is overvalued but Syracuse is also undervalued, giving us a great number.
Oregon -27.5 (at Stanford)
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Oregon -27.5 | -105 at FanDuel
Oregon’s playing as well as any team in the NCAA at this point in the season. They boast a 4-0 ATS record. They’re also winning their games by an average of 40.8 points and covering the spread by 12.8 points per game.
Stanford’s seen mixed results against the spread in 2023. They own a 2-2 ATS record, and they’re failing to cover by an average of 2.4 points per game.
Oregon’s been tested already this season, winning games against Texas Tech and Colorado. Stanford lost by 46 to USC, which has been their toughest test to date.
I don’t believe that “college football math” is a thing, but I do believe USC and Oregon feature similar problems for Stanford. They’re a step above that tier in the Pac-12, and I don’t see Oregon struggling on either side of the ball.
I do believe this is a standard “overlook spot,” which is a concern. If you don’t know what that is, Oregon is playing on the road against a weak Stanford team with a matchup against 7th-ranked Washington for their next game.
There are two major reasons I’m willing to take this bet. First, Oregon has a bye week between the Stanford and Washington games. Second, they’re extremely disciplined, as you can tell from the Colorado game.
This is a spot for Oregon to dominate once again.
USC -21.5 (at Colorado)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: USC -21.5 | -110 at Tipico Sportsbook
USC had a scare last week as Arizona State gave them a fight for most of the game, but the Trojans were able to break away later and secure a two-possession win. Caleb Williams continues to shine and has now thrown three touchdown passes in six straight games, stemming back to last year.
The Colorado hype train didn’t just slow down, it stopped altogether. The Buffaloes had no answer in their first conference matchup against Oregon, as their defense couldn’t stop the Ducks, and they couldn’t move the ball on offense. He’s only one player, but not having Travis Hunter does impact the team because he can make a difference on both sides of the ball, and his absence was evident last week.
USC does not possess the same level of defense as Oregon, so I believe Colorado will score double-digit points, but no one has been able to stop the Trojans’ offense, and they’ve been able to score almost at will all season.
Clemson-Syracuse Under 53 Points
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Under 53 points | -110 at BetFred Sportsbook
Clemson now has two losses in the ACC, and their chances of winning the National Championship are very slim. This is still a fantastic defense, especially up front, and last week, Florida State couldn’t do anything on the ground, averaging only 1.1 yards per carry. Cade Klubnik was better the previous week, but when you’re the top recruit of your class, there are huge expectations, and leading this program to a championship is one of them.
Syracuse is having a phenomenal start to the season as they begin conference play. Garrett Shrader has led this offense to four wins, and he’s been able to do so through the air with a 66.7% pass completion rate and on the ground with a team-leading 316 rushing yards. LeQuint Allen takes over for Sean Tucker, and he’s been better than expected, matching Shrader’s six rushing touchdowns. The Orange are a run-first team going against a defense that stops it, but Cuse has been playing good defense as well this year, and this could be another game where the Tigers don’t move the ball.
Best College Football Bets: Results
- Justin Bales: 3-5
- John Supowitz: 3-5
