The Yankees and Red Sox will have a rubber match on Sunday Night Baseball. Both teams are in need of a series win as they each struggled over the last few weeks. The Yankees still hold a sizeable lead in the AL East, but time is running out for the Red Sox to get back into playoff contention. Let’s break down the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds to make a prediction for Sunday evening’s rivalry matchup.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees (J.Taillon) | -1.5 (+118) | -135 | O 9.0 (-120) |
| @ Red Sox (M.Wacha) | +1.5 (-140) | +115 | U 9.0 (+100) |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of 7 a.m. on Aug. 14.
Taillon Needs to Get Back To His First Half Form
Jameson Taillon will start for the Yankees, and it’s been a tale of two halves for him. He started the season 8-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his first 13 starts. Since then, he holds an ugly 5.89 ERA in nine starts. The Yankees’ hurler has been lucky to go 3-1 over those starts thanks to some terrific run support.
So what caused the dropoff? Taillon has been getting bit by the long ball recently, allowing 12 homers in his last nine starts. Compare that to six homers in his first 13 outings of the season. The biggest culprit has been the changeup — it’s the pitch he throws the least, and for a good reason as it comes in flat and tends to stay over the plate.
He’s seen the Red Sox twice so far this season — his last one was great, allowing just one earned in six innings. However, Taillon coughed up six earned runs as well as three homers in his lone start at Fenway Park this year.
More: Spencer Limbach finds a +440 correlated same game parlay for Yankees-Red Sox Sunday Night Baseball.
Yankees Struggles Continue
The Yankees have taken a nose dive over the last couple of months. They began the year 56-21 through June, but over the previous month and a half, they are just 15-21. At this time, they are still one of the better offenses in the league, but it’s been the pitching that has struggled.
The rotation has had a ton of inconsistencies and injuries, ranking 24th in ERA (4.48) since July 1. They made a move by acquiring former Oakland standout Frankie Montas and dealt Jordan Montgomery to St. Louis.
The team still has significant injuries as there’s no timetable for Giancarlo Stanton, Luis Severino, and Matt Carpenter will be out for the remainder of the regular season at best.
Can Wacha Start Back Where He Left Off
Michael Wacha will make his first start for the Red Sox in a month and a half as he missed time due to shoulder inflammation. The former Cardinals standout was enjoying a resurgent year before landing on the injured list.
Michael Wacha looked just fine during his rehab start for the @WooSox:
4.2 IP
0 H
0 R
1 BB
8 Ks pic.twitter.com/m99l2NON7W— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) August 5, 2022
The significant change he made this year was moving away from primarily throwing a fastball that has lost movement and speed. Now, he throws the four-seamer and changeup at virtually the same percentage. That helps keep hitters off balance, and he has great run value (-7) from his changeup since 2019.
The Highs and Lows of Boston
We can’t discuss the Yankees’ woes without mentioning the Red Sox.
For Boston, they did not get off to a great start going 23-27, with several key members of their offense struggling. Going 20-9 June had them right back in the playoff race, and they had a slight cushion in the Wild Card. However, the bottom dropped out in July, going 8-19 and falling out of a playoff spot.
With several teams to climb over, including some from their division, it may be a lost year for this team.
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction
There have only been ten runs scored in the first two games of this series, that’s low by this rivalry’s standards. Taillon struggled at Fenway in his first start this year, and Wacha may not be at his sharpest while returning from an injury. These two teams love to put on a show on Sunday Night Baseball so run with the over.
The Pick: Over 9.0 | -120 at Caesars Sportsbook
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