Wednesday NBA Odds: Bucks Favored Vs Red-Hot Heat

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo dribbles the ball upcourt against the Miami Heat
Image Credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Eight games are featured on the Wednesday NBA odds menu, but only one involves a pair of playoff contenders — and they just happen to be contenders who share some recent postseason history.

The scorching-hot Miami Heat, who have won nine of their last 10 games, will attempt to bolster their lead in the Eastern Conference standings when they visit Milwaukee in what is by far the best matchup on the Wednesday NBA odds board.

While Miami has been rolling, the defending champion Bucks have dropped four of their last six games, with three of those defeats coming on their home floor. The good news for Milwaukee: The home team has dominated this rivalry, winning seven of the last nine meetings, including all three battles this season.

Will that trend continue? Or will the Heat — who knocked the Bucks out of the playoffs two years ago, only to see Milwaukee turn the tables last spring — stay hot and post their seventh straight road victory? breaks down this pivotal Eastern Conference clash in our Wednesday NBA betting preview.

Odds via PointsBet USA and updated as of 11:30 a.m. ET on March 2.

Miami Heat Vs. Milwaukee Bucks 

Miami Heat forward P.J. Tucker (left) is defended by Milwaukee Bucks center Bobby Portis
Image Credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Tipoff/TV: 8:10 p.m. ET/NBA League Pass
Heat: 41-21 SU/35-26-1 ATS
Bucks: 37-25 SU/27-35 ATS
Spread/Total: Bucks -4.5 (-105)/226
Last meeting: On Dec. 8, Miami topped the Bucks 113-104 as a 6.5-point home favorite. The home team has won and covered all three meetings this season
Did you know: The winning team has averaged 123.4 points in the last 10 series meetings (including playoffs), scoring at least 113 points nine times

About Miami: The Heat stretched their winning streak to four in a row with Monday’s 112-99 rout of Chicago as a 5-point home favorite. Miami has scored at least 111 points in seven of its last eight games, and it has suffered just one defeat in the last calendar month (a 107-99 home setback to Dallas on Feb. 15). While the Heat have been dominant on the hardwood of late, they’ve been just mediocre at the betting window, going 2-3-1 ATS in the last six and 6-7-1 ATS in the last 14. That said, Miami ranks fifth in the NBA in scoring defense (104.7 ppg allowed). It’s a big reason why the Heat sit atop the Eastern Conference, two games ahead of Chicago, three ahead of Philadelphia, and four clear of Milwaukee. It’s worth noting that Miami PG Kyle Lowry will miss tonight’s game, but the Heat didn’t seem bothered by his absence in that 13-point win over Chicago on Monday.

About Milwaukee: The Bucks rebounded from a pair of three-point home losses to the 76ers (123-120) and Nets (126-123), blowing out Charlotte 130-106 on Monday. Milwaukee easily cashed as a 10.5-point home chalk, ending an 0-5 ATS drought. Even with that spread-cover, though, the Bucks remain just 12-21 ATS in their building this season. Offense definitely hasn’t been a problem for the champs, as they’re tied for fourth in the NBA in scoring at 113.6 ppg. That average jumps to 124.4 ppg in the last nine contests, during which the Bucks have tallied at least 128 points five times. Milwaukee also is second in the league in rebounding and 3-pointers made.

Editor’s Note: Looking to become a sharper NBA bettor? Check out our NBA betting guide for a few wagering tips. 

Notable Trends

  •     Miami is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six road games
  •     Miami is 6-2 ATS as an underdog of less than 5 points
  •     Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last six overall 
  •     Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS in its last five at home
  •     Over is 10-2 in Milwaukee’s last 12 overall
  •     Over is 7-2 in Milwaukee’s last nine at home
  •     Milwaukee is 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in its last four home games vs. Miami

Miami Heat Vs Milwaukee Bucks Odds and Action

UPDATE 6:00 P.M. ET: PointsBet opened with Milwaukee -4.5, and that line has held steady throughout the day. However, majority of the action is on Miami +4.5, as PointsBet is reporting 56% of tickets and 76% of the handle backing the Heat … PointsBet opened with the total at 226.5, which moved down to 224.5 at the time of this update. 74% of tickets and 53% of the handle are supporting the Over.