Do you feel like a sharp football fan? Does winning money sound appealing to you? Of course! Thankfully, Underdog Fantasy offers sports fans many gaming options such as best ball fantasy drafts and pick ’em NFL props challenges. As for the initial question posed, I’m here to help sharpen your football acumen by utilizing several helpful resources such as BetPrep projections to topple the over/under and rivals picks.
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- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL props for the main slate of Week 17.
Travis Kelce OVER 69.5 Receiving Yards
Travis Kelce is back from the reserve/COVID-19 list. So, there is a risk to using him. However, when we last saw him, in Week 15, he creamed the Los Angeles Chargers for 191 receiving yards.
Kelce has cleared 69.5 receiving yards in seven of 14 games played. So, without factoring in any context, Kelce has been a coin flip to surpass his yardage prop. However, the matchup is ideal for going over 69.5 receiving yards.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Cincinnati Bengals allow the third-most receiving yards (997) to tight ends in 2021. In addition, Mark Andrews just walloped them for 125 yards.
Unsurprisingly, Bet Prep supports picking the over. Bet Prep projects Kelce for 76.02 receiving yards.
Editor’s Note: New to NFL props? Check out our complete NFL Props Betting Guide to get up to speed!
Tyreek Hill OVER 76.5 Receiving Yards
I sandbagged a little bit in Kelce’s analysis. I did so, knowing I would advocate taking Tyreek Hill’s over for 76.5 receiving yards. The matchup is better for Kansas City’s passing attack than their rushing game. According to Football Outsiders, the Bengals are seventh in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). However, they’re 22nd in pass defense DVOA.
Additionally, Cincinnati isn’t shy about coughing up explosive passing plays. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Bengals allow the fifth-highest average explosive pass rate (10%). Their issues defending explosive passes is awful for facing speedster Cheetah.
Hill has gone over 76.5 receiving yards in only six of 15 games. However, the matchup appears suitable for Hill to surpass his over, and Cinci’s explosive offense should force Kansas City to keep their foot mashed down on the accelerator.
Joe Mixon OVER 93.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Let’s hop on the correlation train. If I expect Kelce and Hill to go over, it stands to reason I also expect the Bengals to keep up and keep the game competitive. The game’s betting spread is less than a touchdown. So, the betting market agrees with my expectation.
Nevertheless, if things go off the rails and the Bengals romp the Chiefs or fall way behind, Joe Mixon has an out. Mixon is a workhorse as a ball-carrier, averaging 18.7 rush attempts and 77.3 rushing yards per game. He’s also a modest contributor through the air, averaging 2.3 receptions and 18.3 receiving yards per game.
As a result, Mixon has eclipsed 93.5 rushing and receiving yards (which I’ll refer to as total yards from now on) in seven of 15 games. Unfortunately, a little back-napkin math reveals he’s exceeded his yardage prop in just under 50% of his games. Nevertheless, a development last week encouraged me to take the over.
Mixon has often ceded passing-down work to Samaje Perine. However, according to Pro Football Focus, last week, Mixon ran 31 routes versus only 11 routes for Perine and Chris Evans combined. If he maintains his passing-game role, he’s game-script proof. Thus, I’m not worried about this game potentially getting off the rails for the Bengals. Bet Prep supports the over, too, projecting Mixon for 96.88 total yards.
David Montgomery OVER 69.5 Rushing Yards
The New York Giants are a wreck. That’s the only way to explain the Chicago Bears being a 6.0-point favorite. Regardless, the game script projects to be favorable for the Bears leaning on the running game, meaning a heavy dose of David Montgomery in a plus matchup.
The Giants are 27th in rush defense DVOA. They also allow the fifth-most rushing yards (1,635) to running backs. Moreover, that breaks down to 109.0 rushing yards per game. Thankfully, Montgomery should be doing almost all of the damage against Big Blue, as Chicago uses him as a bell-cow back. According to FantasyPros, Montgomery’s 77% offensive snap share is the second-highest mark among running backs in 2021. If Monty’s out there, and the playing time to date supports that, he should eviscerate the Giants and smash his rushing yardage prop.
Kyler Murray OVER 290.5 Total Yards
In the previous two weeks, Kyler Murray hasn’t made a seamless adjustment to life with DeAndre Hopkins. Nonetheless, he’s had another week of practice to adjust, and he’s been active as a runner. Murray’s rushed for 59 yards, 61 yards, and 74 yards in three of his last four games. He also has 245 passing yards and 383 passing yards in two of his previous three games.
So, while he hasn’t been sharp lately, he’s still piled up total yards. Further, he should be engaged in a pace bonanza against the Dallas Cowboys. According to Football Outsiders, the Arizona Cardinals play at the sixth-fastest situation neutral pace, and the Cowboys play fastest. So, plays should be run in bunches, enhancing the outlook for yardage getting piled up by all parties involved.
I’m trusting Murray’s elite ability as a passer and rusher coupled with the mouthwatering pace. He’s surpassed 290.5 total yards in seven of 12 games, and I’m banking on him making it eight times in 13 games.
