Do you feel like a sharp football fan? Does winning money sound appealing to you? Of course! Thankfully, Underdog Fantasy offers sports fans many gaming options such as best ball fantasy drafts and pick ’em NFL props challenges. As for the initial question posed, I’m here to help sharpen your football acumen by utilizing several helpful resources such as BetPrep projections to topple the over/under and rivals picks.
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- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL props for the Super Bowl.
Matthew Stafford UNDER 284.5 Passing Yards
Matthew Stafford has had back-to-back excellent games, passing for 337 yards against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Conference Championship Round and chucking it for 366 yards in the Divisional Round against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. However, he’s been up and down this year, passing for under 250 yards in four of his last seven games.
Facing the Cincinnati Bengals leads me to take his under, despite his stellar play in the previous two games. First, the Bengals might slow down the pace of the game. According to Football Outsiders, the Los Angeles Rams play at the fourth-fastest situation neutral pace. However, the Bengals play at the third-slowest situation neutral pace.
Second, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Cincinnati hasn’t allowed more than 284.5 passing yards since Week 16. Moreover, since their Week 10 bye, the Bengals have allowed more than 284.5 passing yards in one of 11 games.
Understandably, Bet Prep projects Stafford for 269.05 passing yards against the Bengals. As a result, I’m hopping on Stafford’s passing yards under.
Editor’s Note: New to NFL props? Check out our complete NFL Props Betting Guide to get up to speed!
Joe Mixon OVER 3.5 Receptions
In the AFC Conference Championship Round, Samaje Perine helped jumpstart Cincinnati’s impressive comeback victory with a 41-yard touchdown reception with 1:05 seconds left in the first half. Overall, he corralled three of four targets for 43 yards, and Joe Mixon was limited to three receptions for 27 yards on three targets. Nevertheless, a deeper dive is encouraging for Mixon’s receiving outlook this week.
According to Pro Football Focus, Mixon ran 22 routes versus only 13 routes for Perine in the AFC Conference Championship Game. Mixon’s routes edge in the last game is an extension of a late-season trend. In his last five games with Joe Burrow starting, Mixon has run 129 routes, with 29 targets, 26 receptions, and 216 receiving yards. Therefore, Mixon has averaged 5.2 receptions per game in his last five, going over 3.5 receptions in four of those contests. Meanwhile, Perine has run only 48 routes, a whopping 81 fewer routes than Mixon ran during that period.
Finally, the matchup isn’t too shabby for Mixon. First, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Rams allowed an average of 5.0 receptions per game to running backs. Second, the Rams have avoided coughing up explosive passing plays. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Rams have allowed the 10th-lowest explosive pass rate (eight percent). In addition, Burrow can mitigate some of his offensive line’s disadvantages against the loaded defensive line opposing them by getting the ball out quickly, including slinging it to Mixon. So, I like Mixon’s odds of hauling in more than 3.5 receptions in the Super Bowl.
As mentioned in the article listing “Top NFL Props for Mixon”, DraftKings Sportsbook has the Over at -145 odds. That makes for nice value on Underdog Fantasy.
Ja’Marr Chase OVER 79.5 Receiving Yards
You might be questioning my pick to take Ja’Marr Chase’s over for 79.5 receiving yards after reading about the Rams’ ability to suppress explosive passing plays in Mixon’s analysis. However, don’t fret. The rookie wideout is an elite weapon with the ball in his hands. According to Sports Info Solutions, Chase had the third-most Yards After the Catch (674 YAC) in the regular season. Thus, he’s not a one-trick pony as a deep threat.
Chase has also been dialed in down the stretch run. In his previous five games that Burrow has also started, Chase has led the team in routes (215), targets (48), receptions (38), receiving yards (670), and touchdowns (four). Chase has averaged 134.0 receiving yards per game during this five-game heater. Additionally, he’s gone over 79.5 receiving yards in four of those five games — specifically, he went over 100 receiving yards all four times he eclipsed the yardage prop for this week. The Rams are a challenging matchup, but I’m confident in Chase’s ability to overcome the matchup and stay hot. Finally, while the Rams are being slowed down opposing the Bengals, Cincinnati should be sped up facing Los Angeles’s up-tempo offense.
