Week 15 offers us our first Saturday NFL action of the 2021 campaign. We have some Underdog Fantasy NFL Props to get in on the action. Not a member of Underdog Fantasy yet? No problem!
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- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
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Mac Jones OVER 227.5 Passing Yards
Mac Jones attempted just three passes the last time he stepped on the field in Week 13. But, obviously, the extremely windy conditions in Buffalo and the New England Patriots’ ability to establish the run against the Buffalo Bills’ inconsistent run defense invited the game plan. This week, there won’t be weather conditions to deal with at Lucas Oil Stadium with its retractable roof.
In addition, the Indianapolis Colts have been decidedly less effective against the pass than against the run. According to Football Outsiders, the Colts are fifth in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and 17th in pass defense DVOA. Thus, I expect Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to craft a game plan to attack Indy’s weaker pass defense. To that point, Jones aired it out 51 times in Week 3 against the New Orleans Saints and 40 times in Week 4 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a pair of stout run defenses.
Moreover, their backfield will be without Damien Harris. Additionally, the Patriots are 2.5-point underdogs. So, they might not have a choice but to huck the pigskin. Finally, Jones has passed for more than 227.5 yards in seven of 13 games as a rookie.
Editor’s Note: New to NFL player props? Check out our complete NFL Prop Betting Guide to get up to speed!
Hunter Henry OVER 26.5 Receiving Yards
Hunter Henry is an excellent correlation pick if Jones throws the ball as frequently as I expect. Namely, I love his matchup. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Colts allow the third-most receiving yards to tight ends (867).
Further, they put the clamps on explosive passes. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Colts allow the eighth-lowest explosive pass rate (seven percent) this year, improving to holding opponents to the lowest rate (five percent) since Week 6. Therefore, Henry is an excellent stylistic fit as an intermediate target. According to Sports Info Solutions, the veteran tight end has an average depth of target of 9.5 yards downfield.
No, Henry hasn’t piled up yardage at a high rate this year. Still, he’s eclipsed 26.5 receiving yards in seven of 13 games. In a plus matchup this week, I like him doing so for the eighth time in 2021.
T.Y. Hilton OVER 26.5 Receiving Yards
T.Y. Hilton is in the twilight years of his career. Nevertheless, he has arguably been the No. 2 option in Indy’s passing attack behind Michael Pittman Jr.
The 32-year-old receiver has played in only six games this year. According to Pro Football Focus, in those six games, Hilton has been third in routes (136), tied for third in receptions (15), second in targets (23), and fourth in receiving yards (177).
The bar is low for Hilton to clear to hit the over on his yardage prop. Thankfully, Pro Football Focus grades his matchup in coverage as average. So, that’s not a deterrent to taking his over. Finally, Bet Prep supports my pick, projecting Hilton for 35.51 receiving yards.
