Underdog Fantasy NFL Picks: Week 4

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Do you feel like a sharp football fan? Does winning money sound appealing to you? Of course!

Thankfully, Underdog Fantasy offers sports fans many gaming options such as best ball fantasy drafts and pick ’em prop challenges. As for the initial question posed, I’m here to help sharpen your football acumen by utilizing several helpful resources such as BetPrep projections to topple the over/under and rivals picks.

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  • Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
  • Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
  • Go to the Pick’em Games.
  • Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.

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It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.

Now, let’s take a look at my five favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for the Sunday main slate of Week 4.

DJ Moore UNDER 79.5 Receiving Yards

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DJ Moore has been on the same page as new quarterback Sam Darnold from the jump-off. He’s averaged 7.3 receptions and 95.0 receiving yards per game. Further, Moore’s gone over this yardage total by a half yard, under it by a half yard, and blew this total out of the water with 126 receiving yards last week.

Nevertheless, I’m taking the under on his yardage prop. He continued to excel after Christian McCaffrey left last week’s game with an injury. On the plus side for Moore, CMC’s absence could result in more targets. On the negative side, the offense could stagnate against a better defense without their do-it-all focal point, and defenses can focus on taking away Moore.

To that latter point, Greg Cosell speculated on the Ross Tucker Football Podcast that stud corner Trevon Diggs could be used to lock down Moore. Quantifying how good Diggs has been this year, he’s earned Pro Football Focus’s highest coverage grade among cornerbacks. The potentially challenging matchup coupled with questions I harbor about the offense functioning at a high level without CMC is reason enough for me to lean toward Moore’s under this week.

Kyle Pitts OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards

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Rookie Kyle Pitts hasn’t looked like the all-world phenom he was touted as when the Falcons selected him fourth overall in the draft, earliest ever for a tight end. However, the Football Team defense hasn’t looked like the world-beating unit pundits expected them to be this year, either. Football Outsiders ranks Washington 28th in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). In addition, they’ve struggled mightily in coverage, earning Pro Football Focus’s fifth-worst coverage grade this year.

As a result, this is a get-right spot for Pitts. Beyond the box score, Pitts checks all the boxes. The uber-athletic tight end has run the second-most routes (104) on the Falcons. Further, they’ve moved him all over the formation, lining him up inline for 31 passing plays, wide for 33, and in the slot or 53. Head coach and play-caller Arthur Smith’s willingness to move him around should result in mismatches and better days ahead, starting with this week.

Finally, I think this game turns into a shootout. First, both defenses are bad. The Falcons rank 30th in defense DVOA, and Washington ranks 29th. Second, the pace should be speedy. According to Football Outsiders, Washington’s playing at the ninth-fastest situation neutral pace, and Atlanta ranks 11th. Therefore, an up-and-down pace plays into the Pitts’ yardage over’s hands.

Brandin Cooks UNDER 73.5 Receiving Yards

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Brandin Cooks has been a one-man show in Houston’s offense. He’s cleared this yardage total in all three games. Even with rookie quarterback Davis Mills leading the offense last week, he tallied 112 receiving yards on nine receptions and 11 targets. The rookie signal-caller had tunnel vision for his No. 1 receiver, as those 11 targets were posted on only 28 pass attempts.

Cooks going off last week against the first place defense in pass defense DVOA is impressive. However, the sledding won’t get much easier this week, as the Bills rank second in pass defense DVOA. In addition, the Bills now have more tape on Mills, which should theoretically exploit his weaknesses further.

Finally, the Bills are favored by 17 points. That’s a positive for Cooks’ yardage outlook since the Texans project to be in a negative game script, right? Maybe. However, the lopsided projected finish seemingly could result in the Texans putting Cooks in bubble wrap at any point in the fourth quarter if they’re getting slaughtered. My thinking is he has a concussion history, and he’s their entire offense. Thus, there’s a disincentive to playing him in a blowout. Therefore, I’ll take his yardage under.

Jaylen Waddle OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards

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Let’s go back to the well for a rookie’s yardage over. Jaylen Waddle is Jacoby Brissett’s favorite option. Miami’s backup quarterback has attempted 89 passes, and he’s directed 19 targets Waddle’s way, the most on the team. Moreover, he’s turned his hefty target volume into a team-high 17 receptions for 93 yards.

Waddle’s facing a soft matchup this week. The Colts rank 29th in pass defense DVOA. Further, according to Pro-Football-Reference, receivers have destroyed them for 15.94 yards per reception. Also, the matchup is a theoretical scheme fit as well.

Underdog Fantasy’s Hayden Winks analyzed the Colts’ Cover-2 defense before Week 1. He also tweeted about a higher percentage of shallow targets to wideouts against the Cover-2 zone.

According to Sports Info Solutions, Waddle’s average depth of target is only 4.3 yards downfield. Thus, this is a match made in heaven for Waddle’s Week 4 yardage over. This is my favorite pick in this week’s selections, and Bet Prep supports my optimism with a projection of 54.98 receiving yards.

Jonathan Taylor OVER 86.5 Rushing Plus Receiving Yards

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Jonathan Taylor’s yardage over is another one Bet Prep supports, projecting him for 92.89 rushing plus receiving yards. Unfortunately, Taylor shares the backfield with pass-catching back Nyheim Hines. Still, he’s the more productive and heavily utilized runner, evidenced by carrying the ball 42 times for 171 yards compared to 16 carries for 64 yards for Hines.

Further, while he hasn’t maintained the momentum of hauling in six of seven targets for 60 yards in Week 1, he’s at least demonstrated the ability to succeed in the passing attack if used in that capacity. Revisiting his rushing, the game’s spread is only two points, favoring the Dolphins. As a result, the game script should be neutral, allowing Frank Reich to lean on his talented second-year back in an average or better matchup.

Miami’s allowed the third-most rushing yards (364) to running backs this year, ranks 14th in rush defense DVOA, and was comically shredded for 111 rushing yards by journeyman JAG (just a guy), Peyton Barber, on 23 carries last week. So, I love Taylor’s odds of getting loose this week and surpassing 86.5 rushing plus receiving yards.