UFC 274 Odds: Oliveira Vs Gaethje Headlines Popular Card

Charles Oliveira, top, pins Dustin Poirier, bottom, to the mat during UFC 269 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Image Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve got a huge sports betting Saturday on tap. There are NBA and NHL playoffs, the Kentucky Derby, and the Canelo Alvarez vs. Dmitry Bivol boxing match. As if that’s not enough, UFC 274 odds are on the board, as well, for a very popular card in Phoenix.

Charles Oliveira will meet Justin Gaethje in the main event, although Oliveira no longer enters as the lightweight champion, after missing weight Friday. The co-main is a women’s strawweight title bout between champion Rose Namajunas and Carla Esparza.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights and intel on opening/current UFC 274 betting odds and action. Check back through Saturday evening for regular updates.

UFC 274 Odds

Favorite Odds Underdog Odds Weight Class
Charles Oliveira -140 Justin Gaethje +120 Lightweight (155 pounds max)
Rose Namajunas -210 Carla Esparza +180 Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)
Michael Chandler -335 Tony Ferguson +280 Lightweight (155 pounds)
Ovince Saint Preux -240 Mauricio Rua +205 Light heavyweight (205 pounds)
Donald Cerrone -190 Joe Lauzon +165 Lightweight (155 pounds)
Andre Fialho -400 Cameron VanCamp +325 Welterweight (170 pounds)
Khaos Williams -112 Randy Brown -108 Welterweight (170 pounds)
Norma Dumont -210 Macy Chiasson +180 Women’s Featherweight (145 pounds)
Brandon Royval -250 Matt Schnell +215 Flyweight (125 pounds)
Blagoy Ivanov -145 Marcos Rogerio de Lima +125 Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Francisco Trinaldo -110 Danny Roberts -110 Welterweight (170 pounds)
Tracy Cortez -135 Melissa Gatto +115 Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds)
Kleidison Rodrigues -345 CJ Vergarra +285 Flyweight (125 pounds)
Loopy Godinez -180 Ariane Carnelossi +155 Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)
Fernie Garcia -130 Journey Newson +110 Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Odds via Circa Sports and updated as of 10:30 p.m. ET on May 7.

Oliveira vs Gaethje Odds and Betting Action

Justin Gaethje, left, competes against Michael Chandler, right, during UFC 268 at Madison Square Garden.
Image Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SATURDAY: As the five-bout main card gets underway, Oliveira is down to a -130 favorite at BetMGM Nevada, with Gaethje a +110 underdog. Oliveira was as high as -175 before he missed weight Friday.

“Ever since Oliveira didn’t make weight, tickets have been going to the underdog. It’s 3/1 on Gaethje,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said, while noting money is skewed heavily toward Oliveira, due to a couple of mid-five-figure wagers on the favorite.

That has BetMGM Nevada heavy to Oliveira tonight on straight bets. However, nationally, tickets and money are in the 3/1 range on the underdog, so the book needs Oliveira.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: At lunch hour ET on fight day, BetMGM has the main event at Oliveira -140/Gaethje +115. The fight opened at Oliveira -150/+140, but BetMGM — like other books — adjusted when Oliveira missed weight Friday.

BetMGM customers are definitely eyeing the underdog in this fight. Ticket count and money are both in the 4/1 range on Gaethje.

Previous Oliveira vs Gaethje Odds Updates

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET FRIDAY: This fight got more complicated, but no less interesting today. Oliveira failed to make the 155-pound limit for Saturday’s lightweight title bout. He was subsequently stripped of the title. However, the fight goes on, though only Gaethje can emerge with the belt, if he pulls the modest upset.

Circa Sports has since dropped the moneyline to Oliveira -140/Gaethje +120 on its UFC 274 odds board. The fight opened at Oliveira -165/Gaethje +145 and was at -170/+150 prior to the weigh-in.

“I personally don’t think the weight miss will have as much impact as most people are assuming here,” Kalikas said. “That said, the market is getting hit on Gaethje since the Oliveira weight miss. A few sharps taking Gaethje today. They were going to come in that way regardless. I just think it gave them a push to get in a little sooner.”

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Circa Sports opened this bout at Oliveira -165/Gaethje +145 on April 26, and there’s been minimal movement since. The champion is up slightly to -170, while the challenger +150 in the UFC 274 odds market.

“I thought from the beginning that this was a solid number. It’s a lot of two-way action so far, and not much sharp action either way yet,” Kalikas said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if the line drops a little bit. This is a spot where we’re gonna have two-way parlays. So across the board, this fight is gonna have balanced action, which is kind of rare.”

‘Verdict’ Is In: Crowdsource Poll Leans Toward Favorite

VerdictMMA.com provides Props.com with crowdsource polling on key fights, from Verdict’s database of enthusiastic MMA supporters. On Saturday afternoon, in the wake of Oliveira missing weight, 54% of picks favor Oliveira. That’s down from 60% midweek. And the majority of those voters expect an early end to this fight. A Round 2 Oliveira submission is garnering 18% of all picks, while 16% of all picks call for a Round 3 Oliveira submission.

Gaethje is given the best chance for an upset in the first or second rounds. The underdog by first-round knockout is netting 11% of picks, and 16% took Gaethje by second-round knockout.

Download the Verdict MMA mobile app to follow predictions and join in on crowdsource polling.

Namajunas vs Esparza Odds and Betting Action

Rose Namajunas, top, competes against Zhang Weili, bottom, during UFC 268 at Madison Square Garden.
Image Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SATURDAY: BetMGM Nevada opened Namajunas as a -195 chalk, stretched to -225 and is now -220, with Esparza +180 on the takeback.

“Tickets are 2/1 in favor of Namajunas, and money is 4/1 on the favorite,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said.

However, much like the main event, that somewhat contrasts what BetMGM is seeing nationwide. Ticket count is practically dead even, and Namajunas is drawing a more modest 60% of money.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: BetMGM opened Namajunas a -160 favorite, with Esparza +130 on the UFC 274 odds board. Now, Namajunas is out to -225 to successfully defend her women’s strawweight title. Esparza is a +185 underdog in tonight’s co-main event.

However, opinion is very much split on this fight. Esparza is actually taking more tickets, at 54%, while money is split exactly 50/50.

Previous Namajunas vs Esparza Odds Updates

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: These two fighters have some history, although it’s practically ancient history in the MMA world. Namajunas and Esparza met in The Ultimate Fighter women’s strawweight championship bout in December 2014. Esparza won on a rear-naked choke in the third round.

Eight years later, Namajunas is the UFC women’s strawweight champ and a solid -220 favorite Saturday night. Esparza is the No. 2-ranked contender and a +190 underdog at Circa Sports.

“I opened this fight a little higher than the market, at Namajunas -200/Esparza +175,” Kalikas said of the April 26 price. “I believe we had $10,000 limits, and we took multiple max bets on the ‘dog side. We had the best ‘dog price at that time. So we moved down to Namajunas -185/Esparza +160, which was the market price. Then we got multiple sharp bets on Namajunas, and the line is now -220/+190, beyond where we opened it.”

Kalikas isn’t quite sure what the need behind the counter will be just yet.

“The need is gonna be interesting. At +190, I’d expect Esparza money. Esparza beat her before, so I think we’ll see some sharp buyback on Esparza,” Kalikas said. “I want to need Namajunas, but the Namajunas parlays might negate that a little bit. But I expect several large bets on Esparza, and we’ll more than likely close closer to -200, near the opener.”

‘Verdict’ Is In: Crowdsource Poll Heavily on Namajunas

Verdict MMA polling for this title bout isn’t nearly as close as the main event. Nor does it line up with the solid two-way action noted above at BetMGM books.

Crowdsource votes are running 4/1 in favor of Namajunas, although the sentiment is that the defending champ might have to go the distance. Namajunas by decision netted 41% of all picks. The next-most-popular choice: Namajunas by third-round KO, at 12% of all votes.

Underdog Esparza’s best tally was to win by decision, at 13% of all votes.

Chandler vs Ferguson Odds and Betting Action

Justin Gaethje, left, competes against Michael Chandler, right, during UFC 268 at Madison Square Garden.
Image Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

UPDATE 10:15 P.M. ET SATURDAY: With this fight coming up shortly, Michael Chandler is down to a -360 chalk at BetMGM Nevada, after opening -420. Tony Ferguson is at +280.

“Tickets and money are on the ‘dog. Tickets are about 4/1 and money is 4/1, as well,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton.

That closely mirrors the national picture for BetMGM, with tickets running 4/1 and money just beyond 3/1 on Ferguson.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson moneyline is trending toward the favorite Chandler, but the action is strongly the other direction. Chandler opened -350 and is up to -400, with Ferguson correspondingly moving from +270 to +300.

Bettors aren’t interested in laying that much juice on the favorite in this lightweight clash. Ticket count is almost 5/1 and money 4/1 on the underdog Ferguson.

Previous Chandler vs Ferguson Odds Updates

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: In another lightweight clash, Michael Chandler opened as a hefty -400 chalk at Circa, with Tony Ferguson +325 on the takeback. Wagers are starting to  pick up midweek.

“Early on, we weren’t getting a lot of action, mostly parlays on the Chandler side,” Kalikas said. “But then we recently got some sharp play on Ferguson. So now, we’re at Chandler -330/Ferguson +275. We’re currently the best price in the market on Chandler. But I think this price will go back up a little bit.”

‘Verdict’ Is In: Crowdsource Poll Favors Chandler

The favorite is nabbing 70% of all picks in Verdict MMA’s crowdsource poll, with 35% of all picks taking Chandler to win by decision. The second-highest tally was 14% on Chandler to win by second-round knockout, followed by 11% on Chandler by first round knockout and 11% on Ferguson by decision.

Other UFC 274 Odds and Betting Action

Ben Rothwell, right, fights Ovince Saint Preux, left, during UFC Fight Night at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena.
Image Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: In the opening fight on the five-bout main card, Donald Cerrone takes on Joe Lauzon in another lightweight contest. Cerrone opened as a -200 favorite to Lauzon’s +165 underdog price at BetMGM. The moneyline dipped to Cerrone -175/Lauzon +145, but it’s now at -185/+150.

Lauzon is netting a modest majority 54% of bets, but 73% of money is on Cerrone.

In another main-card bout, BetMGM opened Ovince Saint Preux a -250 favorite and Mauricio Rua a +200 pup, and the light heavyweight bout is now at St. Preux -275/Rua +210. Current betting splits weren’t available.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Between early prelims, prelims and the main card, UFC 274 has 15 bouts, and many of them are getting early attention, particularly from professional bettors.

“This is a very popular card for a lot of the sharps,” Kalikas said.

But beyond the top three fights, another main-card bout caught Kalikas’ eye: Ovince Saint Preux vs. Mauricio Rua, in a battle of light heavyweights. Circa opened the bout at Saint Preux -225/Rua +195.

“We received sharp action max bets on Rua +195, causing us to adjust the line down to Saint Preux -200/Rua +175,” Kalikas said. “Then we got immediate resistance, sharps buying back on Saint Preux -200. So we went back to -225. There’s a lot of two-way sharp play. We’ll probably need the ‘dog here, because of more public straight bets and parlay action on the favorite.”

‘Verdict’ Is In: Saint Preux Nets Crowdsource Poll Support

Those partaking in Verdict MMA’s crowdsource poll for Saint Preux-Rua seem to think there’s a good chance it goes the three-round distance. As of 12:30 p.m. ET Saturday, a win by decision is garnering 40% of all picks — 26% to Saint Preux, 14% to Rua. Overall, 70% of picks are on the favorite, with 17% of all picks taking Saint Preux to win by second-round knockout.

In the Cerrone-Lauzon bout, 60% of all picks are on Cerrone, with 39% of all picks taking the favorite by decision. Lauzon’s highest tally is also by decision, at 17%.

More on UFC 274: Picks and Predictions

UFC 274 Predictions: Betting Value Now On Gaethje’s Side