Tuesday Best Bets: Three NBA Picks, One NHL Prop

We don’t believe in jinxes at Props.com, but just in case, we aren’t going to discuss the Best Bets record at the moment.

Go ahead and take a glimpse at the running tally below and draw your own conclusions. All we’re willing to say is, yes, things are going smooth at the moment. But we know there are choppy waters somewhere on the Best Bet horizon. So we’ll just continue to ride this wave while we still can!

Wait, does that count? Did we just talk about the Best Bets record? Can we get a jinx mulligan?

Fade or follow, jinx or no jinx, here are our Tuesday Best Bets.

Track Record

Monday: 3-0
Year-To-Date: 12-5-1

Bostonian vs. The Book: 3-1-1
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 2-3
NBA Props: 5-0
NHL Props: 2-1

NBA Moneyline Parlay: Golden State Warriors & Phoenix Suns

The bet: Golden State moneyline + Phoenix moneyline (Parlay)
The odds: -104
Where to bet: FanDuel
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book Podcast

The Bostonian vs. The Book is fresh off a narrow win with Monday’s college basketball total, as Gonzaga and San Francisco stayed Under the total by two points. Hey, they all pay out the same whether you win by a little or a lot!

Matt Perrault, co-host of The Bostonian vs. The Book, hopes to find the pay window once again Tuesday. He’s taking the Golden State Warriors moneyline (-240) and Phoenix Suns moneyline (-260) in a two-leg parlay that has -104 odds at FanDuel.

Perrault’s co-host, Dave Sharapan, was immediately skeptical: “Which one [of these wagers] beats you?”

Replied Perrault: “Neither. The Warriors are mad at home tonight. Everyone is supposed to be playing for Golden State. The Suns are on the road against a horrible team in Orlando.”

That simple analysis was enough to get his partner on board. “OK sure, I’ll bet this one with you,” Sharapan said.

This two-team moneyline parlay is widely available across the industry, but we found it with very minimal juice at FanDuel.

Perrault listed two other bets he likes during Monday’s Bostonian vs. The Book podcast, including a college basketball conference tournament play. You can listen to the replay on Youtube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts.

NBA Prop: Brooklyn Nets F Kevin Durant

The bet: Over 41.5 points/rebounds/assists (at Charlotte)
The odds: -120
Where to bet: DraftKings
From: Matt LaMarca via Tuesday NBA Props

Durant recently returned to the lineup following a 21-game absence, but the Nets don’t have the luxury of easing him back into action. They’re currently in ninth place in the Eastern Conference, so there’s not much wiggle room as far as playoff positioning goes. Brooklyn needs to push incredibly hard over the season’s final month to avoid the play-in tournament.

Durant logged 35.8 minutes in his first game back, and he followed that up with 38.9 minutes in his second game. The Nets will benefit from playing on the road vs. the Hornets, which means Durant will have running mate Kyrie Irving in the lineup. (The unvaccinated Irving still isn’t allowed to play in home games.) Even with the explosive Irving at his side, Durant can do a whole lot of damage himself in nearly 40 minutes of playing time. He’s averaged 29.5 points, 7.3 boards, and 5.8 assists per game in 36.5 minutes this season. That’s 42.6 points, rebounds, and assists as a baseline.

Durant also benefits from a tremendous matchup. The Hornets have played at the second-fastest pace this season and rank 20th in defensive efficiency. That’s a great combination for scoring, and the Nets’ implied team total of 121.25 on Tuesday represents a significant increase from their season average of 110.8.

You can snag the best price on this NBA prop at DraftKings.

NBA Prop: Phoenix Suns F Jae Crowder

The bet: Over 12.5 points
The odds: -108
Where to bet: FanDuel
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com

The BetPrep crew nailed yesterday’s prop of Reggie Bullock Under 12.5 points. The Mavericks guard shot just 1-for-5 from the field, chipping in just five points against Utah. For Tuesday, the crew is jumping back on an Over train, this time backing Crowder to score at least 13 points for the shorthanded Suns.

Here’s BetPrep’s rationale:

• Crowder has gone Over 12.5 points in his last four games overall, finishing with 16, 15, 14, and 19 points respectively
• Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Cameron Johnson remain out for Phoenix, forcing Crowder into a heightened scoring role (and more minutes).
• Crowder is averaging 28.4 minutes and 9.6 points per game this season. But in the last five contests, those averages balloon to 30.8 minutes and 15.2 ppg.

For Crowder to clear this number, he almost certainly will need to sink his 3-point attempts. The Phoenix forward has notched 12 treys in his last four games, so that’s his primary source of scoring. The good news? In the absence of Booker and Paul, Crowder should get plenty of opportunities to fire away from beyond the arc. More good news: Orlando ranks 25th in team defensive efficiency this season, so those long-range shots have a pretty good chance of going down.

You can nab the Over on this prop at -108 odds at FanDuel.

NHL Prop: Colorado Avalanche At New Jersey Devils

The bet: Goal in the first 10 minutes
The odds: Yes -170
Where to bet: DraftKings
From: Jason Scavone via Tuesday NHL Props

This may be the single best bet you can make in the NHL right now, and we’re going to keep hammering it until the oceans recede to dust, the sun rises in the west, or the Devils start employing a goalie who’s slightly less porous than a stray chunk of pumice.

Once again: New Jersey is 8-2 in its last 10 to this prop, and has had a first-10 goal on the ledger in 40 of 56 games this year, according to Twitter’s PsuOtto. The Avs have seen a first-10 goal in 37 of 56 games overall, including six of the last 10. And tonight Colorado may get to fire pucks at the Nico Daws, a goalie with the name of a low-level mob enforcer … and the ice time of a low-level mob enforcer.

Occasionally you’ll get burned by the heavy juice and have to bleed some profit back, but like Rick Ross said (or B.B. King, if you’re old): You gotta pay the cost to be the boss. The boss of first-10 goals.

You can roll the dice with this Tuesday Best Bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.