Super Bowl props. You want ’em. You need ’em. You gotta have ’em, ASAP. It’s just not Super Bowl Sunday without an abundance of Super Bowl proposition bets.
And the bookmakers know it. Which is why the bulk of Super Bowl prop bets hit the odds board — or the palm of your hand, via mobile apps — earlier and earlier every year, and in even higher volume. So how do oddsmakers get all these props, from the usual to the extraordinary, up on the board in just a couple days’ time?
South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews walked us through his team’s process for posting Super Bowl props on the Los Angeles Rams vs Cincinnati Bengals matchup.
Keep Your Receipts
Andrews has headed up the South Point sportsbook in Las Vegas since 2016, but he’s a longtime industry veteran. So he’s got a lot of first-hand experience with the evolution of Super Bowl props. And he knows the tricks to stay ahead of the game without getting buried by the avalanche of work that’s required each year at this time.
“Since I’ve been here, I keep track of every prop bet we put up, how they bet it, and whether we won or lost,” Andrews said. “We have a pretty good blueprint of what we’re going to do every year. So we start from there.”
Many game props are the same from year-to-year, simply requiring adjustments for the teams involved. That allowed Andrews, renowned oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro and the rest of the South Point risk team to get a lot of work turned around in short order after the conference championship games.
“We started Monday and knocked off what we could. First, you have to get a grip on who they’re betting in the game — the side, total, and moneyline. Then you start pricing the props,” Andrews said Wednesday afternoon. “We worked on them eight hours a day [Monday-Wednesday]. Before I even get into the office, I’m talking to the guys.
“We just put out nine pages of props. Our goal from the beginning was to get everything up by Friday.”
QBs Create Super Bowl Props Challenge
While Andrews and Co. have a blueprint, that doesn’t mean there weren’t challenges this week. Chief among them: Two quarterbacks who are Super Bowl rookies. Bengals QB Joe Burrow is finishing off just his second year in the NFL. Rams QB Matthew Stafford has 13 seasons under his belt, but it’s his first with Los Angeles and just his fourth playoff appearance overall. And the previous three postseason trips, with Detroit, ended with Wild Card Weekend losses.
Because of this, Andrews said it was particularly difficult determining the odds for TD pass props on each QB, as well as other player index offerings — that is, props with more results to choose from, rather than the standard Yes/No or Over/Under.
“Those were a little tough and definitely took a little discussion,” Andrews said. “It’s not like it’s Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes last year. One guy had been in nine Super Bowls before that, the other is in his second straight Super Bowl and is one of the best players in the league. So you have an idea of what they’re going to do.”
Plus, you’ve got young coaches who are a bit of a wild card. Sean McVay is finishing his fifth season with the Rams, but he’s just 36 years old. Zac Taylor — who coincidentally was L.A.’s QB coach under McVay in Super Bowl 53, when the Rams lost to the Patriots 13-3 — is all of 38 years old, finishing his third year with the Bengals. And in his first two seasons, Taylor’s team went a lowly 6-25-1.
“That made this a little more difficult, too,” Andrews said. “McVay is still a relatively young coach. He’s been to a Super Bowl, but the Rams only scored 3 points in that game. So he’s probably gonna try to do things differently. The two coaches certainly created a lot of discussion.”
‘It’s Not A Slam Dunk That We’ll Win’
But Andrews and his team got through those issues and more, and by Thursday afternoon, South Point bettors were perusing 18 pages containing 256 prop bets. And with many of those props being index offerings, the total number of possible wagers is in the thousands. No easy task to finish, to be sure.
“It’s the end of the year, the end of the season, and it definitely wears on you. But I never wake up in the morning and say, ‘Oh hell, I’ve gotta go to work today,'” Andrews said. “It’s kind of a love-hate thing. I’ll come home and tell my wife I’m just exhausted. But she’ll always kid, ‘You love it and you know it.’
“Let me put it this way: If I didn’t have Super Bowl props, I’d probably miss them.”
He certainly gets a level of satisfaction from bettors’ response to his team’s prop-bet menu. In fact, with the Big Game still 10 days out, one customer was particularly enthusiastic.
“I have one guy who’s already bet me over $100,000 in props. He’s a sharp guy, so I’m gonna try to use that to my advantage,” Andrews said. “A lot of bettors who [bet] props for big money are very sharp bettors who do their homework. We have to respect those plays. If we can go into the game needing the same side as they do, that’s what we’re trying to do.”
But he wants the casual and once-a-year bettors to enjoy Super Bowl props, as well.
“Most of the public will bet these props Friday/Saturday/Sunday of Super Bowl weekend,” Andrews said. “It’s satisfying to appeal to the public. You want them to enjoy, respect and play what you put up.”
Of course, in the end, Andrews would just like his shop to have a good weekend.
“The satisfaction is when you punch all the results in, and you win. And it’s not a slam dunk that we’ll win.”
