PrizePicks College Football Props Week 7: Mismatch Central

Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong completes a pass in a 2021 road game.
Image Credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images

We went a perfect 6-for-6 in these College Football Props last week, so let’s look to keep the momentum going. As usual, we will turn to PrizePicks for these listings.

PrizePicks is technically a fantasy sports site, although they allow you to wager on a series of prop bets within their platform. They are legal in 30 states as well, including some places that don’t allow sports betting at the moment. 

You can read more details on how and where to play Prizepicks by clicking here. 

Another cool thing about PrizePicks is that they have college football props listed. I have perused those lines to find the best College Football Prop Bets for Week 7 – all of which can be found on the PrizePicks app. 

With that, let’s get to the best props! 

QB Brennan Armstrong – Virginia: OVER 344.5 Passing Yards

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Let me introduce you to the most aptly named QB in college football. Brennan Armstrong, as you may have guessed, relies on his cannon of an arm to sling the ball around 50-60 times per game. 

That has resulted in the following numbers this season: 

  • 21-31 for 339 Yards vs. William & Mary
  • 27-36 for 405 Yards vs. Illinois
  • 39-54 for 554 Yards at North Carolina
  • 33-59 for 407 Yards vs. Wake Forest
  • 25-44 for 268 Yards at Miami
  • 40-60 for 487 Yards at Louisville

As you can see, Armstrong has failed to meet this 344.5 passing yard total in just two of six games this season. One was an off-night at Miami and the other was a blowout against a small school.

Neither of those situations should take place on Saturday, as Virginia steps into a competitive battle against Duke. Here are the Blue Devils’ current rankings against the pass:

  • 106th in opponent passer rating
  • 119th in opponent passing yards per game
  • 122nd in opponent yards per pass attempt

Conclusion: Simply put, take Armstrong and the over before this line moves too much. I like it all the way up to 360 passing yards.

RB Sa’Rodrick Thompson – Texas Tech: OVER 71.5 Rushing Yards

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Thompson earned a spot in last week’s column, and he came through for us with a touchdown. In fact, he went over and beyond with 118 yards on 18 carries with three rushing scores against TCU. 

Thompson is finally healthy, and it’s nice to see that he’s pushing 20 carries per game. There’s a good chance he’ll see that level of volume with game flow on his side this weekend. After all, Texas Tech steps in as substantial favorites over lowly Kansas. 

I don’t think I’m breaking any news by saying that Kansas is not a good football team. That includes their run defense, which ranks 127th of 130 teams this year. Let that sink in for a moment. The Jayhawks are giving up 6.4 yards per carry, which ranks 126th in the country.

Conclusion: Thompson should breeze over this 71.5 rushing yard total. Take it up to 80. 

RB Kevin Harris – South Carolina: OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards

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This is definitely a matchup-driven play. Kevin Harris and South Carolina enter this game as a respectable favorite against Vanderbilt. That’s a position the Gamecocks haven’t enjoyed much this season, which could lead to more than usual volume for Harris.

We just outlined Kansas as one of the worst teams in the country against the run, but Vanderbilt isn’t much better. The Commodores rank 122nd in yards per carry allowed – giving up 5.8 yards per clip. 

Conclusion: Harris has not gone over this 64.5 yard rushing total this season, but he hasn’t had game flow or matchup on his side either. That will change on Saturday. Take it up to 75, as my projections say he flirts with the century mark.

More College Football Player Props

Evan Hull (RB – NW) OVER 0.5 Rush TD. This is simple. Hull is excellent when Northwestern is playing with a lead. He’s bad when the Wildcats are getting dusted. Hull should find plenty of running room against a bad Rutgers team that got trounced on the ground in back-to-back games.

Jarek Broussard (RB – COL) OVER 52.5 Rush Yd. Broussard follows similar rationale to Harris earlier in the article. He should have game flow on his side with Colorado standing in as a touchdown favorite over Arizona, who ranks 119th in rushing defense.

Ty Fryfogle (WR – IND) OVER 5 Receptions. Fryfogle has recorded five catches in all but one game this season. He’s the top receiving option for Indiana, and you better believe they are going to feed him the ball. His opponent, Michigan State, ranks 129th in pass defense.