Each week, we will be analyzing our favorite PGA Tour props and picks for the upcoming golf tournament, focusing on who we think will be first round leader of the event.
The first round leader sweat in golf is a fun one, so join us as we try to make some winning golf picks!
PGA Tour First Round Leader Picks & Predictions
Below we take a look at the most intriguing first round leader bets for the upcoming PGA Tour tournament.
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Editor’s Note: Looking for more golf props content? Be sure to check out our outright winner and Round 2/3/4 picks for this week’s event!
Mexico Open
This week’s Mexico Open is a weak-field event at a course that can be absolutely destroyed by long hitters.
The Vidanta Vallarta course is a ballstriker’s paradise, playing long and soft in previous editions.
This FRL space has been dominated by Rasmus Hojgaard the past couple of weeks, and after a threatening run two weeks ago he actually had the delight of posting the WORST first round score after picking him last week.
It should be noted that picking the Worst First Round is actually probably way more difficult than picking the real First Round Leader, but the only thing wilder than that would be picking him again.
The best/worst thing about golf betting is that being contrarian is actually an even more ballsy and even more profitable strategy than any other sport.
Oddly enough, Hojgaard comes in as one of the favorites this week, and while I wouldn’t touch his win-bet with a ten-foot pole after all the question marks last week, his +3500 FRL number is actually quite bettable and all the theories behind his potential to break out this season on the PGA Tour are even stronger this week at an ultimate bombers course against a weak field.
Just to make things even better, Niklas Norgaard makes for another great FRL play, as he actually “out-Hojgaards” Hojgaard by being an extreme freak with the driver and the putter – exactly the recipe for a low round here.
The most important thing is NOT confusing him for Hojgaard’s brother, Nicolai, who is also in the field and a strong player, but doesn’t stand out in any category like his countryman and his sibling.
The last guy worth mentioning is once again Aldrich Potgieter – the only guy who hits it way past even Hojgaard.
In fact he hits it way past … EVERYONE. His iron game is shaky but he has a T2 as recently as December in Europe, and made his first cut and even finished t15 at the Farmers despite not being able to hit the broad side of a barn on approach.
There’s perpetual intrigue with the uber-bomber from South Africa, and this course and tournament are about as good as it gets for him to hide his weaknesses and take a chance while he remains almost completely off the public’s radar.
A FRL bet is ideal for a guy as unproven as him, but with truly elite performance in one of the most important aspects of the game.
First Round Leaders:
Rasmus Hojgaard +3500
Niklas Norgaard +4500
Aldrich Potgieter +6000
