Each week, we will be analyzing our favorite PGA Tour props and picks for the upcoming golf tournament, focusing on who we think will be first round leader of the event.
The first round leader sweat in golf is a fun one, so join us as we try to make some winning golf picks!
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PGA Tour First Round Leader – Props, Picks & Predictions
Below we take a look at the most intriguing first round leader picks and bets for the upcoming PGA Tour tournament.
Memorial Tournament First Round Leader Picks
We’ll have 72 golfers battling it out for the Memorial Tournament trophy in Dublin, Ohio this week.
Muirfield Village Country Club is one of the most recognized courses in the country and should provide a tough all-around test for the PGA Tour’s best.
PGA First Round DFS Pick’Em Play
Here is who we are looking at on DFS pick’em sites like Underdog for the first round:
Xander Schauffele LOWER Than 71.5 Strokes
This is one of the most challenging courses on tour and requires a strong game from tee to green.
That fits the profile of Xander Schauffele, and while he hasn’t been in his very best form, he’s still one of the most talented overall golfers in this stacked field.
Schauffele finished eighth at the Memorial last year and currently owns the second-best odds to win (approximately +1400) behind only Scottie Scheffler (+300).
PGA First Round Leader Best Bets
An overview of our favorite first round leader targets on sportsbooks like FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars:
Hideki Matsuyama (+3500) — This seems like a favorable number for a golfer who typically produces his best work in the face of tough tests. Matsuyama has finished 8th-16th here over the last two years.
Wyndham Clark (+5000) — If you feel like taking on more risk, Wyndham Clark is at around +5000 to be the first round leader on certain PGA betting sites. We like the upside he carries for FRL action despite the volatility.
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Editor’s Note: Looking for more golf props content? Be sure to check out our outright winner and Round 2/3/4 picks for this week’s event!
Charles Schwab Challenge First Round Leader Picks
This week the Tour stops at famed Colonial Country Club, the longest-running consecutive host site on the PGA Tour.
This designation isn’t just ceremonial, it tells us a lot also about what to expect. A true-blue old-school Tour stop, this event plays like a complete throwback, and has one of the more extreme course-fit profiles we see on Tour.
It differs, obviously, from a generic Tour stop in that it plays short and extremely tight, with some of the smallest greens we will see on Tour. In order to get to those greens, players have to lace tee shots through tree-lined alleys with a variety of clubs. Taking the driver out of golfers’ hands, and/or emphasizing accuracy way more than power off of the tee, can give us a little bit different profile of a player to focus on at this event.
A lot of big names have contended here in recent years, but the tournament has almost always been edged out by a shorter hitter with a strong putter.
All that said, the biggest name in this field also happens to be one of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball ever: Scottie Scheffler. He’s a rare #1 who is, dare we say, “lacking” in PRODIGIOUS length, so he actually doesn’t get penalized at all teeing it up here, like some of the past big-name contenders, such as a Rahm, Finau, or Koepka have been.
He’s absolutely primed from all angles, on paper, to finally convert a win here in his home state, and there’s really no tangible reason to doubt the idea that he could or should come out of the gate picking up right where he left off after a dominant performance at last week’s PGA Championship.
The only problem is: literally everybody and their brother knows this already, and is eyeing him, and Vegas isn’t about to just hand out free money in this situation. So, his odds are basically the lowest we will ever see for a contender, in any market, since the Tiger Woods era.
So, it’s a strong enough situation where being contrarian is clearly the play, and being contrarian in a market as volatile as the First Round Leader category is definitely the play.
Per usual, we want to start looking further down the list at these first-round-leader plays, as they are so difficult to hit, the value is definitely finding diamonds in the rough, who have enough signal to justify a good round coming, but can’t necessarily make the full case for a win-bet.
The first name that jumps out is Akshay Bhatia. The once-prodigy has cemented his career with his second career victory last season, also in Texas at the Valero. He’s re-shaped his game to be a very accurate but moderate-length driver of the golf ball, and a very good putter – after starting out flashing some impressive length. The changes have been decent for him, but he still battles a hit-or-miss profile that belies his true potential as a golfer, as he continues to grow into his game.
All told, he’s had some stretches where he looked like he was about to become a top-20 player in the world, but hits some little lulls that keep him from breaking that glass ceiling. The reality is, he hasn’t put together a “complete” performance since his 3rd place at the Players earlier this year, but he’s been putting up some elite numbers in a category or two every week.
This course setup is a great chance for him to put together a perfect storm, leaning heavily on his driving accuracy and ability to get in a tremendous groove with the putter, but according to Datagolf’s simulations his number at +6000 in the FRL category is much better than his win-bet odds.
Another player who has shown a lot of similar hit-or-miss potential in the past couple of seasons is Erik van Rooyen, and he’s featuring as our alternate FRL play this week. When Van Rooyen switched to Sean Foley as his coach, he started really coming into his own on the course and was putting up some scary-good performances at the end of the 2023 season and beginning of 2024. Around the end of 2024 it kind of fell apart for him, but he came back with an absolutely dominant ballstriking performance at the Byron Nelson recently, where he gained significant strokes in all four SG categories.
He, like Akshay, is coming off of a missed cut at the PGA Championship, but also like Akshay, it’s a chance for him to show off a consistent t2g game against a field where it can really shine, on a course where hitting the ball near-tour-average won’t hurt you.
There’s a lot of “sketch factor” going on with Van Rooyen, but this play is based off of potential/upside, and if you write off the PGA Championship which was loaded with mudballs early-on, he’s got a ton of momentum in his ballstriking, and if that “poor” performance stretches his odds, it’s something we can capitalize on at over 100/1 to have a hot start here.
FRL Best Bets:
Akshay Bhatia +6000
Erik Van Rooyen +10000
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Editor’s Note: Looking for more golf props content? Be sure to check out our outright winner and Round 2/3/4 picks for this week’s event!
PGA Championship First Round Leader Picks
The PGA Championship is hosted this week at Quail Hollow Country Club. This is the venue for a big Tour event every year, but it gets its turn as a major championship venue again in 2025.
This means that the course, which typically plays to favor the best ballstrikers in the world, will feature even more length, more rough, and firmer and faster greens than normal.
All of this will serve to accentuate and exacerbate the profile it has for long, accurate drivers and deadly approach players.
This template has been a feasting ground for Rory McIlroy and he is rightfully the main story heading in. With all eyes on him, however, we typically want to look for some diamonds in the rough (no pun intended) when it comes to finding an edge, especially with a finicky market such as a First Round Leader bet.
David Puig is exactly that. The young once-heralded Spaniard has been hiding on LIV Tour but has caught a breakout run of form lately, bombing the crap out of the ball and putting the lights out to four top 10s in 10 tries this season on LIV.
His iron game is hit-or-miss and hasn’t been super sharp coming in, but that’s part of the reason he’s buried a little bit in this market.
His profile of gaining upwards of 25 yards on n the field off the tee and propensity for really hot putting rounds is enough to make a mark here in a single round, for sure. He’s a player who is still getting better and for those in the know, he’s expected to win eventually but lost a lot of hype when he signed with LIV.
A win here would be a bit of a surprise, but with 100/1 available for a first round leader bet, he’s an ideal play.
The next best play is an old standby in this section, Kevin Yu. I often refer to him as “a poor man’s McIlroy” so what better place for him to sneak in a great performance? Similarly to Puig, he’s got some holes in his game that come and go, but driver and iron play aren’t one of them. He’s long enough, and he’s one of the best ballstrikers on tour, and that is exactly what plays here.
Recently, he’s gone from an absolutely horrible putter to a guy who flashes some really good putting rounds and putting weeks. That’s exactly the kind of volatility we want to try to capitalize on in a one-round golf bet, and he has basically zero public appeal even after winning last season, so his 150/1 number is very bettable.
The last play we will take a run at is pretty much a straight numbers play with Taylor Moore.
He’s available at 175/1 on MGM and this is a rare stock datagolf edge play that hasn’t been bet down yet.
He’s 100/1 at most places and tops out at 125/1 at any major book. The 175 number is just an outlier, and his game backs it up on paper.
He’s a very solid all around player and his recent form looks sketchier than it really is with three MC’s before a 25th last time out. Those MC’s were at the Zurich where he has bogged down by a partner but hit the ball and putted great, and the Valspar which is a tough course and then he admittedly pooped the bed at the Byron Nelson, but completely rebounded from that by following it with one of his best ballstriking performances all year last time out in Myrtle Beach.
He stuffs the stat sheet and can perform in all categories, and while he is a long shot, that 175 number just really belies his overall talent.
Best Bets
David Puig +10000
Kevin Yu +15000
Taylor Moore +17500
We will also throw in a Bonus look on Bryson DecCambeau +2200 to be the first round leader, for all the same reasons mentioned in the win-bet writeup.
With the caveat that the +950 number to win, if available, is the slightly better play if needing to choose between the two.
Editor’s Note: Looking for more golf props content? Be sure to check out our outright winner and Round 2/3/4 picks for this week’s event!
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Truist Championship PGA First Round Leader Picks
The Truist hosts an elevated-purse event again this year, but it’s normal host site (Quail Hollow) is up for the PGA Championship next week.
The one-year stand-in course is a brand new course for the PGA Tour, the Philadelphia Cricket Club.
This is an old old old school Tillinghast course that has rarely been seen by the public. After an extensive remodel it did host some senior tour events in modern times, but this week all the best players in the world (minus Scottie Scheffler and a few LIV guys) will be teeing it up in prime time.
The classic track has a classic yardage of 7100 yards, but it interestingly doesn’t feature narrow fairways and doesn’t take driver out of a lot of hands.
This will make for a lot of short shots in for the whole field, with the bombers just having shorter than others.
The setup sounds like a birdie-fest, and while it’s hard to say for sure with a maiden course, the intention is to use the nasty greens and greens complexes to limit scoring. With plenty of slopes and fast bent grass stimps, the superintendents intend to attempt to keep these boys in check. At least a little bit.
Overall, with the uncertainty of a new venue, we have to lean towards overall value. While I expect a bomber to have a chance to run away with this one still, for our first round leader bets we are going to focus on some overall-value guys who have a chance to make a splash with a great short game in a single round.
The front runner in this exact category is the perpetually-hot Russell Henley. This is another rare opportunity for the #8 player in the world and #5 player in 2025 FedEx cup standings to flex his muscles against the best in the world, at a course that isn’t stretched so far that he’s at a disadvantage.
Henley pooped the bed at the Masters, which is rare for him, but has kept on ticking with a T8 immediately following that week at the similarly-short elevated event at the RBC Heritage.
If this becomes a short-iron/putter contest where placement on the correct tier is key, look out for Henley, as his 40-1 odds are great for both a win bet and a first round leader bet.
Similarly, Daniel Berger continues his pre-injury form while his odds lag behind his actual performance. Also similarly, he gets a crack this week at a big-money event where he can compete distance-wise.
Just like Henley, he putts and chips it well and is a deadly iron and wedge player. He’s done everything this season except win, and it’s one of those situations where we can get a guy who has the same stats as a Fleetwood or Cantlay this season, but for 30% more payout.
Similarly to Henley as well, he is a good value at 40-1 both to win or to snag a first round lead. It’s hard to not see a guy like Rory or Avery rising to the top with a driver advantage here over four rounds, so we are leaning towards him in the first round leader market.
Finally, we’ve got a really deep pull here with Jacob Bridgeman. The 25 year old is having a sneaky breakout season this year, gaining pretty much a full stroke on the field in 13 starts, garnering two top 5’s in his second season on the big tour, after a rookie season on the KFT in 2023.
Bridgeman’s 2025 profile is that of an uncanny-good putter, while holding serve but not doing damage in all other categories. Can he really compete long-term against a field this stacked? His profile is more that of a guy who will snipe a high finish here and there on courses that are more of a putting contest.
This isn’t exactly that, but if he’s hot on the greens, which he has been all year, he’s got a really long number at 80-1 to nip a quick lead in a single-round market.
FRL Best Bets:
Russell Henley +4000
Daniel Berger +4000
Jacob Bridgeman +8000
Editor’s Note: Looking for more golf props content? Be sure to check out our outright winner and Round 2/3/4 picks for this week’s event!
