Each week, we will analyze our favorite PGA Tour props and picks for the upcoming golf tournament, focusing on who we think will be the PGA first round leader of the event.
The first round leader sweat in golf is a fun one, so join us as we try to make some winning golf picks!
PGA Tour First Round Leader – Props, Picks & Predictions
Below, we take a look at the most intriguing first round leader picks and bets for the upcoming PGA Tour tournament.
Editor’s Note: Looking for more golf props content? Be sure to check out our outright winner and Round 2/3/4 picks for this week’s event!
Tour Championship Picks ANd Predictions
We’re back for another week of PGA Tour action. We’re down to 30 golfers, and the season is winding down.
The Tour Championship is an elite field, but there are some intriguing FRL value options to choose from. Check out some FRL plays for this week, and take a look at my PGA model for full analysis and more plays!
We JUST missed a FRL ticket on Tommy Fleetwood last week. Nothing we can do about Bobby Mac going absolutely nuclear.
First Round Leader Picks: Tour Championship
Here are three strong FRL candidates at great odds:
- Viktor Hovland (+2000 FRL) – For first-round action, Viktor is my guy. The man processes course conditions faster than almost anyone on tour, and Thursday at East Lake is all about adapting quickly to the setup. His ball-striking gives him immediate birdie opportunities that other players simply can’t access, and at +2000 for a FRL bet in a 30-man field, you’re getting serious value.
- Justin Thomas (+1800 FRL) – JT knows East Lake like the back of his hand, which means day one advantages that you just can’t quantify in the normal stats. The guy understands exactly where to attack and where to play safe from the very first tee shot. His short game gives him scoring chances even when he’s not perfectly dialed in, and that’s huge when everyone’s still finding their rhythm. Love the odds.
- Collin Morikawa (+2200 FRL) – Morikawa is perfect for Thursday scoring because precision players tend to start fast when conditions are at their most predictable. His iron game is so consistent that he’ll be attacking pins while other guys are still trying to find fairways. The renovated greens actually play into his hands early in the tournament when they’re most receptive to quality approach shots. At +2200 FRL odds, you’re getting a proven, major champion at nice value.
PGA First Round Betting Strategy & Best Practices
When dealing with PGA Tour betting, there’s a lot more variance, risk/reward, long shots, and an aspect of a lottery-like ticket than we deal with in most weekly or daily match sports.
When dealing with “PGA First Round Leader bets” markets, we take that to an eleven!
The best we can hope to do is think of ourselves as buying “weighted lottery tickets” – hope to pick plays that have valid reasons that they might hit slightly more often than their stated odds, and rely on long-term volume for those hits to play out over the course of an entire season.
The first and most important thing is to make sure the player you are considering has OVERALL VALUE. There aren’t a lot of big angles to the first round market that can take an otherwise-mediocre play and turn them into a lean in the first round leader market.
In general, FRL picks should also be good value plays in general markets, usually meaning that regardless of their course fit or other factors, they have been outperforming or are otherwise undervalued by the oddsmakers or the public.
Weather
We’ll get to how to identify those players, and check whether a FRL play makes sense for them – but first: one of the biggest factors in getting an edge on first round leader plays is looking at the tee times / weather.
For most articles, the tee times aren’t usually out yet, but they can be found on Tuesday afternoons, usually.
The main things to look for are AM/PM tee time splits. All else being equal, morning scores can trend lower than afternoon scores. Wind usually picks up in the afternoon, but sometimes due to a storm front, it can be opposite, so check the local forecasts.
Very rarely, and even more difficult to predict, there can be an afternoon storm that, if the afternoon wave has to play through, can really hurt scores in the rain. But if they get pulled off and get to start on Friday morning in super soft conditions, it can be a huge advantage for R1 scoring.
This is extremely difficult to predict 24 hours in advance, as it requires perfect timing and intensity and duration of storm coverage.
The best strategy is to check to make sure AM/PM wind splits are neutral or favorable before firing, although anything can and does happen.
Weather and tee times aside, we are looking at a few key things to establish overall value, and then a few more to lean that player into a FRL play.
Recent Form
For overall value, the biggest factors are looking at recent form versus longterm form, and gleaning an edge.
For example, a player who is playing well recently but hasn’t garnered much or enough change in odds from Vegas or has simply had some bad luck on the greens but has been hitting it well in SG:APP and SG:OTT for several weeks is definitely a player to look into more.
On the flip side, if somebody has a great track record but hasn’t been up to form, look for news articles about things like a swing or coaching change, off-course life events (baby, marriage, etc) or an injury that might give some context to the slump.
See if you can identify a scenario where he is worth betting on being a bounce-back while his odds are lulling.
Course Fit
The next avenue is course fit. This is factored into the market to an extent, but the players who are in the top 5 or 10 most extreme outliers when it comes to driving stats or putting stats can still have an edge at courses that are setup dramatically longer or shorter than your average tour stop.
Generally for a FRL bet, we get longer odds on the best players and shorter odds on the bottom of the field.
For example, a favorite who is 10-1 to win could be 15-1 or 20-1 to be FRL and a guy who is 100-1 could be 60-1 or 70-1 to be FRL.
Vegas does the math here decently, following standard projection models and variance in play per-round, but when trying to squeak out all the edge we can, there can be players that stack up out of line with their overall odds.
There are opportunities to shop for an outlier line in the more volatile and lower-handle FRL market that can help turn a lean into a play.
Putting Variance
The thing that can really ice a FRL play is that putting is by far the highest variance stat in golf. Oftentimes the leader after one round will simply be the guy who made everything that day.
This could be a good ball striker who finally got all of his looks to go, but likely won’t keep that up, or a great putter who just delivered on his strength in the opening round.
But it gives a situational lean to guys who probably can’t keep that performance up for all four rounds – where they will likely get overtaken by a Scottie Scheffler or other well-rounded ball striker – but can have an outlier performance where they gain 4, 5, 6+ strokes chipping and putting in a single hot round to open the tournament.
Many players at this level can end up shooting something in the low 60s with a little luck.
This gives an advantage to otherwise mediocre players who are prone to having a high-variance putting day, which if you are interested in somebody, you can check to see if they have that kind of profile in their previous rounds, and go for some of the more volatile boom-or-bust players in the FRL market, for sure.
Keep in mind the concept of buying “weighted lottery tickets” and make sure to have an EXTRA solid edge in mind when chasing FRL markets – because there is more juice here overall due to the volatility – and with a little patience you can score a few big hits over the course of a season.
Remember the Ricky Bobby mantra “if you’re not first, you’re last!”, and don’t get discouraged if a guy you picked completely throws a dud out of the gates.
Just keep making informed decisions and keep firing. Golf is not just the most mental pro sport to play — it’s the most mental one to bet on as well.
Develop a good process, make small refinements, and trust in it!
