Each week, we will be analyzing our favorite PGA Tour props and picks for the upcoming golf tournament, focusing on who we think will be first round leader of the event.
The first round leader sweat in golf is a fun one, so join us as we try to make some winning golf picks!
PGA Tour First Round Leader – Props, Picks & Predictions
Below we take a look at the most intriguing first round leader picks and bets for the upcoming PGA Tour tournament.
Truist Championship PGA First Round Leader Picks
The Truist hosts an elevated-purse event again this year, but it’s normal host site (Quail Hollow) is up for the PGA Championship next week.
The one-year stand-in course is a brand new course for the PGA Tour, the Philadelphia Cricket Club.
This is an old old old school Tillinghast course that has rarely been seen by the public. After an extensive remodel it did host some senior tour events in modern times, but this week all the best players in the world (minus Scottie Scheffler and a few LIV guys) will be teeing it up in prime time.
The classic track has a classic yardage of 7100 yards, but it interestingly doesn’t feature narrow fairways and doesn’t take driver out of a lot of hands.
This will make for a lot of short shots in for the whole field, with the bombers just having shorter than others.
The setup sounds like a birdie-fest, and while it’s hard to say for sure with a maiden course, the intention is to use the nasty greens and greens complexes to limit scoring. With plenty of slopes and fast bent grass stimps, the superintendents intend to attempt to keep these boys in check. At least a little bit.
Overall, with the uncertainty of a new venue, we have to lean towards overall value. While I expect a bomber to have a chance to run away with this one still, for our first round leader bets we are going to focus on some overall-value guys who have a chance to make a splash with a great short game in a single round.
The front runner in this exact category is the perpetually-hot Russell Henley. This is another rare opportunity for the #8 player in the world and #5 player in 2025 FedEx cup standings to flex his muscles against the best in the world, at a course that isn’t stretched so far that he’s at a disadvantage.
Henley pooped the bed at the Masters, which is rare for him, but has kept on ticking with a T8 immediately following that week at the similarly-short elevated event at the RBC Heritage.
If this becomes a short-iron/putter contest where placement on the correct tier is key, look out for Henley, as his 40-1 odds are great for both a win bet and a first round leader bet.
Similarly, Daniel Berger continues his pre-injury form while his odds lag behind his actual performance. Also similarly, he gets a crack this week at a big-money event where he can compete distance-wise.
Just like Henley, he putts and chips it well and is a deadly iron and wedge player. He’s done everything this season except win, and it’s one of those situations where we can get a guy who has the same stats as a Fleetwood or Cantlay this season, but for 30% more payout.
Similarly to Henley as well, he is a good value at 40-1 both to win or to snag a first round lead. It’s hard to not see a guy like Rory or Avery rising to the top with a driver advantage here over four rounds, so we are leaning towards him in the first round leader market.
Finally, we’ve got a really deep pull here with Jacob Bridgeman. The 25 year old is having a sneaky breakout season this year, gaining pretty much a full stroke on the field in 13 starts, garnering two top 5’s in his second season on the big tour, after a rookie season on the KFT in 2023.
Bridgeman’s 2025 profile is that of an uncanny-good putter, while holding serve but not doing damage in all other categories. Can he really compete long-term against a field this stacked? His profile is more that of a guy who will snipe a high finish here and there on courses that are more of a putting contest.
This isn’t exactly that, but if he’s hot on the greens, which he has been all year, he’s got a really long number at 80-1 to nip a quick lead in a single-round market.
FRL Best Bets:
Russell Henley +4000
Daniel Berger +4000
Jacob Bridgeman +8000
Editor’s Note: Looking for more golf props content? Be sure to check out our outright winner and Round 2/3/4 picks for this week’s event!