Each week, we will analyze our favorite PGA Tour props and picks for the upcoming golf tournament, focusing on who we think will be the PGA first round leader of the event.
The first round leader sweat in golf is a fun one, so join us as we try to make some winning golf picks!
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PGA Tour First Round Leader – Props, Picks & Predictions
Below, we take a look at the most intriguing first round leader picks and bets for the upcoming PGA Tour tournament.
Editor’s Note: Looking for more golf props content? Be sure to check out our outright winner and Round 2/3/4 picks for this week’s event!
We’re back for another week of PGA Tour action after an interesting Ryder Cup finish.
The Sanderson Farms Championship doesn’t feature really any of the top players in the world, but that makes for some fantastic odds and a clear path for anyone to go low on Thursday.
First Round Leader Picks: Baycurrent Classic
This is the PGA Tour’s first time ever at Yokohama Country Club, which means we’re playing on a completely blank canvas where course history means absolutely.
The course is a Par 71, measuring 7,315 yards with a layout that’s going to separate the field fast – we’ve got just two par 5s, three par 3s, and 13 par 4s.
If you’re not elite at par 4 scoring, you’re toast.
Here are three FRL candidates at great odds. We’re going for some bombs this week since the field is so weak.
Kurt Kitayama (+3000)
Kitayama at 30-1 is a great price when you combine a fantastic three-month form with positive Thursday scoring history.
His 69.95 R1 average ranks #68 on tour – that’s 0.60 strokes better than tour average on Thursdays, which means he consistently starts tournaments better than half of the Tour.
Kurt has gained approach strokes in his last 10 tournaments, and the great results have followed. He also ranks 18th in Par 4 scoring.
Chris Gotterup (+2700)
Gotterup is a really nice value, and he ranks top half of the tour in Round 1 scoring.
While he’s below average in approach and putting, we’ll look for a golfer who excels from a different angle. Gotterup ranks 7th in SG: Off The Tee and 39th overall in Strokes Gained: Total.
That being said, his approach game has been much better in the second half of 2025, gaining strokes on the field in 9 of his last 11 tournaments.
Things are clicking, and Gotterup has a win and three more top-10 finishes since July. He ranks sixth Par 4 scoring.
Keith Mitchell (+6000)
I feel like I never get Mitchell right, but these odds are too good to pass up. Mitchell’s approach game has been hit or miss, and he hasn’t played well overall for four rounds.
The key there is “for four rounds,” as Mitchell somehow ranks second on Tour in Round 1 scoring in 2025.
He’s long off the tee, which could set up some short iron shots. That’s critical because there are so many Par 4 holes on this course. Mitchell ranks 10th on tour in Par 4 scoring.
PGA First Round Betting Strategy & Best Practices
When dealing with PGA Tour betting, there’s a lot more variance, risk/reward, long shots, and an aspect of a lottery-like ticket than we deal with in most weekly or daily match sports.
When dealing with “PGA First Round Leader bets” markets, we take that to an eleven!
The best we can hope to do is think of ourselves as buying “weighted lottery tickets” – hope to pick plays that have valid reasons that they might hit slightly more often than their stated odds, and rely on long-term volume for those hits to play out over the course of an entire season.
The first and most important thing is to make sure the player you are considering has OVERALL VALUE. There aren’t a lot of big angles to the first round market that can take an otherwise-mediocre play and turn them into a lean in the first round leader market.
In general, FRL picks should also be good value plays in general markets, usually meaning that regardless of their course fit or other factors, they have been outperforming or are otherwise undervalued by the oddsmakers or the public.
Weather
We’ll get to how to identify those players, and check whether a FRL play makes sense for them – but first: one of the biggest factors in getting an edge on first round leader plays is looking at the tee times / weather.
For most articles, the tee times aren’t usually out yet, but they can be found on Tuesday afternoons, usually.
The main things to look for are AM/PM tee time splits. All else being equal, morning scores can trend lower than afternoon scores. Wind usually picks up in the afternoon, but sometimes due to a storm front, it can be opposite, so check the local forecasts.
Very rarely, and even more difficult to predict, there can be an afternoon storm that, if the afternoon wave has to play through, can really hurt scores in the rain. But if they get pulled off and get to start on Friday morning in super soft conditions, it can be a huge advantage for R1 scoring.
This is extremely difficult to predict 24 hours in advance, as it requires perfect timing and intensity and duration of storm coverage.
The best strategy is to check to make sure AM/PM wind splits are neutral or favorable before firing, although anything can and does happen.
Weather and tee times aside, we are looking at a few key things to establish overall value, and then a few more to lean that player into a FRL play.
Recent Form
For overall value, the biggest factors are looking at recent form versus longterm form, and gleaning an edge.
For example, a player who is playing well recently but hasn’t garnered much or enough change in odds from Vegas or has simply had some bad luck on the greens but has been hitting it well in SG:APP and SG:OTT for several weeks is definitely a player to look into more.
On the flip side, if somebody has a great track record but hasn’t been up to form, look for news articles about things like a swing or coaching change, off-course life events (baby, marriage, etc) or an injury that might give some context to the slump.
See if you can identify a scenario where he is worth betting on being a bounce-back while his odds are lulling.
Course Fit
The next avenue is course fit. This is factored into the market to an extent, but the players who are in the top 5 or 10 most extreme outliers when it comes to driving stats or putting stats can still have an edge at courses that are setup dramatically longer or shorter than your average tour stop.
Generally for a FRL bet, we get longer odds on the best players and shorter odds on the bottom of the field.
For example, a favorite who is 10-1 to win could be 15-1 or 20-1 to be FRL and a guy who is 100-1 could be 60-1 or 70-1 to be FRL.
Vegas does the math here decently, following standard projection models and variance in play per-round, but when trying to squeak out all the edge we can, there can be players that stack up out of line with their overall odds.
There are opportunities to shop for an outlier line in the more volatile and lower-handle FRL market that can help turn a lean into a play.
Putting Variance
The thing that can really ice a FRL play is that putting is by far the highest variance stat in golf. Oftentimes the leader after one round will simply be the guy who made everything that day.
This could be a good ball striker who finally got all of his looks to go, but likely won’t keep that up, or a great putter who just delivered on his strength in the opening round.
But it gives a situational lean to guys who probably can’t keep that performance up for all four rounds – where they will likely get overtaken by a Scottie Scheffler or other well-rounded ball striker – but can have an outlier performance where they gain 4, 5, 6+ strokes chipping and putting in a single hot round to open the tournament.
Many players at this level can end up shooting something in the low 60s with a little luck.
This gives an advantage to otherwise mediocre players who are prone to having a high-variance putting day, which if you are interested in somebody, you can check to see if they have that kind of profile in their previous rounds, and go for some of the more volatile boom-or-bust players in the FRL market, for sure.
Keep in mind the concept of buying “weighted lottery tickets” and make sure to have an EXTRA solid edge in mind when chasing FRL markets – because there is more juice here overall due to the volatility – and with a little patience you can score a few big hits over the course of a season.
Remember the Ricky Bobby mantra “if you’re not first, you’re last!”, and don’t get discouraged if a guy you picked completely throws a dud out of the gates.
Just keep making informed decisions and keep firing. Golf is not just the most mental pro sport to play — it’s the most mental one to bet on as well.
Develop a good process, make small refinements, and trust in it!
