Each week, we will be analyzing our favorite PGA Tour props and picks for the upcoming golf tournament, focusing on who we think will be first round leader of the event.
The first round leader sweat in golf is a fun one, so join us as we try to make some winning golf picks!
PGA Tour First Round Leader Picks & Predictions
Below we take a look at the most intriguing first round leader bets for the upcoming PGA Tour tournament.
RBC Heritage
Harbour Town Golf Links presents a unique opportunity on the PGA Tour. The course is absolutely a specialists course, focusing on hitting fairways and tight approach shots, as much as anywhere we will see all year, and takes the distance advantage out entirely for many top players.
Because of this, along with its place on the schedule immediately following the Masters, the event was traditionally skipped by almost all except for a couple of the household names on Tour.
Times have changed however and in recent years Harbour Town has gathered some significantly top-heavy fields, and this week is one of their best ever.
That makes the handicapping slightly more tricky, as these guys like Scheffler and Aberg and Xander can and will show that they are the best in the world at all styles of golf.
But at the end of the day it still does present an opportunity for the shorter hitters to have a more “mano-a-mano” chance against the big dogs.
The other factor is that the Masters letdown/lull is real. Tournament golf is grueling and at the Masters it is at an eleven. Everyone is trying to peak for that week, and some golfers can continue that form and ride that wave, and some hit a wall, and there’s not an easy way to predict exactly who, other than we can count on a few studs fading out here.
All this points us towards mostly taking some shots with guys who are outside the “superstar” bubble in a week that they can really compete.
The one top dog who is really interesting to me here, however, is Colin Morikawa. On paper it’s the perfect fit for him, as he’s one of the rare elite players who actually plays a shorter, more accurate style. He also comes in hungry, with only one win in the past three+ seasons. He’s playing fantastic, and his 14th place at the Masters solidifies that, but doesn’t catch too much attention from the public.
Along with that, even the stock Datagolf numbers have him as a +EV play at 20/1 to take the first round lead here.
After that let’s dig a little deeper with Aaron Rai, a notorious fairway-finding and iron-play expert, who is exceptionally talented but again gets buried in the big time events because of some struggles with distance.
He’s the perfect specialist for a specialists course, and we will take him at 40/1 because he can really hang with anyone if you take distance out of the equation.
The last guy is the South Carolina / Georgia legend Lucas Glover. He’s played this event a billion times and scarcely had a truly high finish, but always does well.
He’s hidden on the board after pooping the bed at the Masters, but was coming off of 3rd at the Players and 8th at the Valspar, two courses that are fairly relatable to Harbour Town in the scheme of things, and definitely much more so than Augusta National.
The number on him is just so big at 70/1 that he’s a good play, we can always give guys a pass for the Masters, and his game is so consistent there’s not a lot of reason to be concerned.
First Round Leader Picks:
Collin Morikawa +2000
Aaron Rai +4000
Lucas Glover +7000
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