PGA Tour First Round Leader Predictions & Best Bets

Wai’alai Country Club is an oldschool course built in 1927 and while it has had plenty of work since then, it’s definitely not a bombers course.

Par 70 and just over 7000 it’s a good example of how short courses aren’t necessarily easy courses. The lack of par 5’s will take the edge off the bombers (many veterans aren’t here) and put an emphasis on iron play, putting, and grinding out par 3’s and par 4’s.

Less par 5’s means less separation in the field and we could get tight leaderboards or some big split-payouts for a First Round Leader bet if the scores are tightly bunched. However, don’t make the mistake of COMPLETELY eliminating players just because their driver might be less of a weapon this week – they still hit it enough to be useful, evidenced by Ben An’s high finish last year at a course that doesn’t play to his strengths necessarily.

All that said! It looks like the wind is laying down again this week which may show us another defenseless island setup.

Regardless, we are looking at “splash” and “flash” players for our FRL bets that we might not feel good enough about for the entire tournament, but are worth trying to snipe a low round with.

The first guy we see is Mackenzie Hughes, who along with some others (McNealy, Hall, D. McCarthy) are a recurring theme in this space because they are really dominant players on the greens (who also are playing well all around right now) and without par 5’s that is how you are going to separate yourself from this field.

Hughes is the pick this week because he’s got a great number and is coming in without many eyes on him.

For the price of 70-1 on FD and DK you get a guy who has four top 10s in his last 4 starts and is coming in with at least a little seasoning from the holidays after closing 2024 with a sixth place in Europe.

His countryman Taylor Pendrith is up for basically a recurring spot in the lineup until he starts playing bad, he is absolutely on fire since winning last may, peppering the leaderboards with top 20s and doing so with all aspects of his game. He’s beat the field putting in 22 of his past 25 starts, but last week wasn’t one of them, or he’d have been right behind the leaders.

At +4500 for a FRL it’s not the ideal setup for him to use his distance, but it’s absolutely good enough to keep riding him until proven otherwise.

Aside from those there are a couple of niche plays to keep an eye on here for real long shot fliers, which is what FRL bets are good for: Henrik Norlander and Matt McCarty at 100/1 or better.

Norlander is basically just the shortest hitter imaginable but a really good precision iron player, and this is one of the spots on the schedule that he can capitalize on and should have circled.

McCarty is really hard to gauge but that’s part of why you’re able to get a guy who has won 4 of his past 13 events (3 KFT one PGA) at such long odds.

It’s tough because a lot of life-altering stuff has happened the past few months for him and a lot of times it’s hard for players to keep that intensity up long-term when they’ve been grinding for years and just secured their career. AND he did not play well at all last week.

That said, this is an absolute dream spot for him being a woefully short hitter … and once again, 100x odds on a guy who has won 4 of the past 13 times he’s teed it up?

We’ve got to throw some bait on that line and go fishing with McCarty because it doesn’t take much risk to get a good payout there.

First Round Leader Picks:

Mackenzie Hughes (+7000)
Taylor Pendrith (+4500)
Henrik Norlander (+10000)
Matt McCarty (+10000)