The best quarterback of all time, and the MVP front-runner at the time, Tom Brady got shut out in Week 15. On the other side of the spectrum, Jared Goff, on the worst team in football, throws three touchdown passes. The NFL really is a week-to-week league, and here are the best quarterbacks for NFL props this week.
All odds via BetPrep as of 7 a.m. ET on Dec. 22.
Justin Fields Vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Prop: Justin Fields Passing Yards
The Odds: Over 208.5 yards (-114)/Under 208.5 yards (-116)
Yes, it’s risky putting money down on any of the Bears’ offensive players. But Justin Fields is beginning to come into his own as a passer, and this week he gets a very favorable matchup against the Seahawks.
Watching Fields on Monday, he didn’t look great. But he finished with 285 yards passing, coming a week after throwing for 224 yards. And two weeks before that, he had 291 yards.
I thought @justnfields played really well overall last night:
-less sacks
-play faster in pocketBut I really like just the subtle nuance of this play—doing plays like this consistently—on top of the it play talent—2022!! @ChicagoBears pic.twitter.com/UN09UkWA19
— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) December 21, 2021
Davis Mills threw for 331 yards against Seattle, and Colt McCoy had 328. Against the 32nd ranked passing defense in the NFL, Fields will go OVER.
Joe Burrow Vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Prop: Joe Burrow Passing Yards
The Odds: Over 253.5 yards (-116)/Under 253.5 yards (-114)
With a banged-up Joe Mixon (he’s questionable with a sprained ankle), the Bengals will throw the ball more against the Ravens than they might normally. When these teams met in Week 7, Mixon only got 12 carries, and Joe Burrow was 23-of-38 for 416 yards.
It is worth noting that since that big game for Burrow, the Ravens haven’t allowed more than 268 yards, and that was to Aaron Rodgers. No one else has cracked 250, although combined, Dolphins QBs Jacoby Brissett and Tua Tagovailoa did go for 300.
All of this is to say that the Bengals will lean heavily on Burrow this Sunday, and his previous success against the Baltimore defense means that he is a good bet to hit the OVER.
Editor’s Note: New to NFL props? Check out our complete NFL Props Betting Guide to get up to speed!
Derek Carr Vs. Denver Broncos
The Prop: Derek Carr Passing Yards
The Odds: Over 276.5 yards (-114)/Under 276.5 yards (-118)
Derek Carr is second in the NFL in passing yards, only trailing Brady. But those totals are largely a product of his incredible start to the season. He began the year throwing for 435 yards, 382 yards, and 386 yards.
Contrast with the last three games – 249, 263, and 236 – and consider that his 236 yards on Monday came against a severely depleted Browns team dealing with a COVID outbreak.
The Raiders are scuffling and have only scored a total of 40 points in their last three games. The Broncos’ defense is one of the best against the pass – they just held Joe Burrow to 157 yards two weeks after giving up 184 to Patrick Mahomes – and they will put the handcuffs on Carr.
The UNDER here is the far better bet.