NFL Props: Josh Jacobs Over/Under 53.5 Rushing Yards In Week 18?

Josh Jacobs #28 of the Raiders runs the ball in a 2021 road game.
Image Credit: Sarah Stier/Getty Images

The Las Vegas Raiders have saved their season with three straight wins while getting a big assist from running back Josh Jacobs. He averaged over 81 yards during the Raiders’ current three-game win streak, and now he and the rest of the team are hosting the Chargers in a win-and-your-in final regular-season game.

If the Raiders win in Las Vegas on Sunday night, they are in the playoffs for the first time in five years.

All odds via BetPrep as of 6 a.m. ET on Jan. 6.

Josh Jacobs Vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Prop: Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards

The Odds: Over 53.5 yards (-115)/Under 53.5 yards (-115)

When the Raiders uglied their way to a 16-14 win over the COVID-ravaged Browns, Jacobs ran for a tough 52 yards without getting a rush for longer than nine yards. The next week, however, against a solid Denver defense, he exploded for 129 yards and led the Raiders to a 17-13 win.

The 129 yards for Jacobs was his first 100-yard game of the season, and it matched a career-high from Week 8 in 2020.

And this last week, with Jonathan Taylor on the other sideline, Jacobs ran for 63 yards on 16 carries and got the game’s first touchdown.

The Previous Matchup

When the Chargers and Raiders met the first week of October, Jacobs was coming off a toe and ankle injury that kept him off the field in Week 2 and Week 3. He never really got going against the Chargers, and he finished the game with 40 yards on 13 carries.

It was a rough day for the entire Las Vegas offense, as they managed just 213 total yards and 13 first downs. Derek Carr was leading the NFL in passing yards after three weeks, but in the Week 4 trip to Los Angeles, he managed just 196 yards passing.

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Chargers Defense

For the season, that Week 4 performance against the Raiders was the high-water mark of the season. The 48 rushing yards allowed was the best of the season, and it came just one week before giving up 230 yards rushing to the Browns.

The 213 total yards allowed were sandwiched in between games of 437 yards and 531 yards.

So in looking at the Chargers defense as a whole for 2021 and their 30th ranking against the run, the earlier game against Las Vegas is the oddity. The Chargers’ defense this season has not been very good.

The Prop

Jacobs injured his ribs last week, but he did reenter the game after getting hurt. He’s been limited in practice this week, but with the stakes of Sunday night’s game, it will be all hands on deck, and he will play.

Las Vegas does not want to get into a shootout with Justin Herbert and the Chargers, so look for them to establish the run against an awful run defense. All that leads to one conclusion: Jacobs will go OVER 53.5 yards rushing.