NFL Props: Jonathan Taylor Over/Under 103.5 Rushing Yards In Week 17?

Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts rushes for a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the New England Patriots at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 18, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Image Credit: Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Even when Derrick Henry ran for 2,000 yards last season, he didn’t get a single vote for MVP. Those votes all went to winner Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes.

So an MVP award isn’t in the cards for Jonathan Taylor this season, nor has it been for a non-quarterback since 2012, when Adrian Peterson won. But Taylor should at least be in the conversation while single-handedly putting the Colts into playoff position.

He’s also become the closest thing to a prop “over” guarantee that we’ve ever seen.

All odds via BetPrep updated 9 a.m. ET on Dec. 29.

Jonathan Taylor Vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Prop: Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards

The Odds: Over 103.5 yards (-111)/Under 103.5 yards (-119)

If you’ve been riding the gravy train that is Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards, don’t get off now. He’s entering the two most important weeks of the season, and he’s showing no signs of slowing down.

Over the last seven games, Taylor has hit the over on his rushing total an incredible six times. He has put the Colts on his back, carried them into the playoff picture, and he has many of the media talking about the need to name an MVP that isn’t a quarterback.

For our purposes, the MVP talk is just chatter. We care about Taylor’s totals from his game with the Raiders, and will he or won’t he go over for another week.

The Streak

It’s not just that Taylor has hit the over in six of his last seven games and eight of his previous 10. It’s the margins in which he is hitting the over.

If his weekly line was at 115 yards – which would be absurd – he’d have gone over in five of seven games. If his line was 140 yards – absolute lunacy – he would have hit on four of seven games.

Four of seven is in-the-black wagering at a level almost no one hits, and one that comes with a line that would never be set. So imagine how good the bet is on Taylor at 103.5, regardless of the opponent?

Raiders Defense

As it turns out, however, the opponent does matter, and for Taylor, this is a good one. Las Vegas ranks 19th in the NFL in rush defense, giving up nearly 116 yards per game, and those numbers have actually been worse for most of the season.

Austin Ekeler ran for 117 yards against Las Vegas early in the season, Joe Mixon went for 123, and Devontae Booker, in a reserve role with the Giants, had 99 yards.

The Prop

At some point, the Taylor train will stop. But considering his hot hand, the Raiders defense, and the Colts’ COVID issues at quarterback, Taylor will get the ball a lot on Sunday, which means he will run for a lot of yards.

Taylor is a great bet to go OVER 103.5 rushing yards.