There are certainly stronger offenses in the NFL than the 1-7 Miami Dolphins, but with their opponent, the lowly Houston Texans, there’s value in betting on some Dolphins offensive players this Sunday. You’ll definitely want to keep that in mind when doing your NFL prop betting research.
Houston’s defense has repeatedly been gashed, allowing 30.1 points per game (31st in the league) and 401.4 yards per game (30th).
The Texans have repeatedly been targeted for NFL prop betting this season, especially the last three weeks. In that span, they’ve let the Colts and Cardinals go for 31, and the Rams finish with 38 points.
Let’s take a look at this Miami offense to find the best value in Week 9.
Game Script And Houston’s Biggest Weakness
The Texans’ defense is equally inept against both styles of play. They rank 30th in both yards per pass and yards per rush, continually giving up chunk plays.
Teams tend to run more against the Texans, mainly because they’ve built up big leads from passing the ball effectively in the first half.
There’s only one team that passes more frequently than the Dolphins this season, so we can expect Tua Tagovailoa and this passing attack to attempt to move the ball through the air.
If they’re successful, the second half may turn to the running backs, but considering the Dolphins defense is no world-beater, this may be closer than you think.
For Week 9, we’ll focus on the Dolphins passing game against this secondary.
Best Targets On Miami
Tagovailoa has done a good job spreading the ball around to his weapons since his return to the lineup.
Wide receivers Jaylen Waddle and DeVante Parker have both seen double-digit targets in recent games, while tight end Mike Gesicki leads the teams in yards.
Houston is one of the most generous defenses to tight end performance, letting up an average of 62 yards per game and allowing six touchdowns to the position in eight games.
.@mikegesicki with the BIG gain!!
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— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) October 31, 2021
They’re slightly better against receivers but still a below-average unit.
For this game, Waddle and Gesicki seem like the most reliable picks. Waddle leads the team in targets with 69, and Gesicki gets a soft matchup and comes in averaging 59.38 yards per game.
Bet on Waddle’s receptions and Gesicki’s yards as the Dolphins look to get on track against this soft defense.