Atlanta Falcons’ top receiver Calvin Ridley is expected to return for the first time since Week 4, and the question posed is whether or not he can go over his NFL prop bet total of 6.5 receptions.
I’m here to say that yes, yes, he can.
The reasons are three-fold, and it’s the usual cast of factors that support this NFL prop bet: season’s production, the defense on the other end, and BetPrep trends.
Let’s quickly break down why Calvin Ridley over 6.5 receptions is a great bet for this Sunday.
His Performance This Season
Ridley has proven to be a high-volume receiver, especially with Julio Jones no longer on the team.
In the four games Ridley has played, he’s averaging just over ten targets per game and has finished games with catch totals of 5, 7, 8, and 7.
There’s every reason to believe Ridley can surpass his 6.5 line; he’s a focal point of this Falcons team and has exceeded the total in three straight contests.
Miami’s Struggling Secondary
The Dolphins as a team have seriously struggled, but their secondary, in particular, has been very generous to betting success.
Yards, long completion, and receptions have all gone over at a high clip when betting against Miami.
As it relates to receptions, the Dolphins allowed Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault to both hit their overs last week, with 7 and 6 catches, respectively.
The week before, all three Buccaneers receivers hit their overs for receptions, and in Week 4, two of the three Indianapolis pass-catchers hit their overs.
Don’t ignore the consistency here. Miami is vulnerable, and it’s best to target and take advantage of this unit.
BetPrep Trends
As always, the best way to wrap any bet is by looking at BetPrep. Ridley’s page gives us the go-ahead we need to lock this in for Sunday’s action.
His positive trends supporting this prop:
- Recorded 7+ receptions in 6 of his last 8 (75%) games when he had at least five targets last game
- Recorded 7+ receptions in 6 of his last 8 (75%) games when he had at least five catches last game
- Recorded 7+ receptions in 6 of his last 8 (75%) games when he had at least 50 receiving yards last game
- Recorded 7+ receptions in 6 of his last 8 (75%) games when he is averaging at least 6.5 targets per game
There’s plenty to like this weekend in Ridley’s return, and I recommend betting his over.
