Zach Wilson may not be the first quarterback that comes to mind when planning your NFL player props, but I’m here to tell you – he’s a worthy target in Week 5.
Wilson and the Jets will play Sunday morning at 9:30 AM EST, as they and the Falcons are playing in London.
What better way to start your Sunday bets than waking up to Zach Wilson hitting his over? The line is currently set at 242.5. Here’s why he can do it.
Advantageous Matchup
The first mark of a solid prop bet is seeing a weak defense on the other end, and we’ve got that covered with an extremely poor Atlanta Falcons secondary.
The Falcons are a bottom-ten unit at both opponent’s yards per pass attempt and completion percentage and rank 21st in total passing yards allowed.
On statistical sites such as PFF and Football Outsiders, Atlanta ranks as a bottom-five pass defense.
Needless to say, Wilson is in an advantageous spot against this defense. The rookie QB is averaging over 34 pass attempts per game and should have plenty of opportunities to hit his over.
Wilson Slings It Deep
One way I try to find value for quarterback passing props is to view the leaderboards for statistics such as Air Yards and aDOT (average depth of target). The two metrics help showcase which passers throw the ball down the field more.
The logic is simple: the more often a quarterback is throwing it deep, the higher percentage chance of chunk plays and more yards.
With that established, Wilson is near the top of both stats through four weeks. He’s seventh in Air Yards and ninth in aDOT, and for good measure, he’s tied for fifth in 40+ yard passes with three such completions.
Against a poor Falcons secondary that has allowed 16 passed of 20+ yards, Wilson should find big plays with ease in London.
This is just the second bottom-ten pass defense Wilson has faced this season, and according to BetPrep, he passed for over 250 yards in the one other game with a poor defense on the other side.
Load up Zach Wilson to start your Sunday bets, and enjoy your day of NFL player props!