He is the defending Super Bowl champion and MVP, and when the NFL kicks off its season on Thursday, September 9, he will rightfully be the focus of the football world.
Passing Yards – Over/Under 300.5
Expecting Tom Brady to go over 300 yards in Week 1 is a bit of a stretch. This isn’t like last year, where he was adjusting to a new team with a shortened training camp. He is far more comfortable in the offense, and early yards will come. But just once in his last eight Week 1 starts has he gone over 300 yards.
He finished the season strong in 2020, going over 300 yards in four of the final five regular-season games. But he only eclipsed the mark once in the postseason, with 351 yards against Washington.
Yes, the Cowboys’ defense is not good against the pass. But even last year, they gave up more than 300 yards passing to a quarterback just four times.
It’s tough to bet against Tom Brady with his entire offensive team returning from a Super Bowl-winning team, but 301 yards is a tough ask for any quarterback.
Pass Completions – 25.5
Something far more common for Brady last year was a high number of completions. In eight games, he completed at least 26 passes, and in two others, he was right at 25.
On the other side, the Cowboys gave up at least 26 completions only three times in 2020. In two of those three games, the Cowboys also allowed more than 300 yards.
Passing Touchdowns – 2.5
Throwing for at least three touchdown passes is hard. Although in Brady’s final two games of last season, he did it, getting three against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game and three against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
Still, it’s a tough number to hit, which is why the over is +102, and the under is paying -132.
Only four times last season did the Cowboys give up at least three passing touchdowns, and none of them came in the final six weeks of the season.
Only Aaron Rodgers threw for at least three touchdowns in more than half his games played in 2020.
Interceptions – 0.5
This one is simple. Will Tom Brady throw an interception?
Seven times in the regular season last year, the answer was yes, including two interceptions in Week 1. In the NFC Championship Game, he threw three picks.
The Cowboys’ defense intercepted a pass in seven games last season.
