One NFL player prop worth serious consideration is Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary to go over 50.5 rushing yards in Week 4.
Singletary is the 1A option in this Bills backfield, splitting work with Zack Moss.
Still, as the top back, there are reasons to feel good about Singletary’s over on Sunday. As always, we’ll break down this NFL player prop in significant detail.
A Soft Matchup
The first step I take when planning my prop bets is to examine the quality of every offense and every defense. In that vein, there aren’t many bigger gaps in talent than the Buffalo rushing attack against the Houston Texans run defense.
Most people think of Josh Allen and their aerial attack when talking about Buffalo’s explosive offense.
You may be surprised to know that Buffalo has one of the most efficient rushing offenses through three weeks. DVOA has gone as far as to say that the Bills are the sixth-best rushing team in the NFL thus far.
Meanwhile, Houston’s defense struggles in all facets, a bottom-five unit no matter what site you go to for statistics.
That alone is reason to consider betting on these Bills running backs, and Singletary in particular.
It also aids our case here when looking at the spread. Buffalo is -16.5 favorites, the biggest spread of the season, and as such, we should expect plenty of runs in the second half.
That plays exactly into this line and makes Singletary a great target on Sunday.
Trends And Statistics
It wouldn’t be a Props article without referencing trends from our friends over at BetPrep. Singletary’s research page highlights two positive trends to feel good about this bet:
- Ran for 51+ yards in 8 of his last 11 (72.73%) games when he is averaging at least 50 rush yards per game on the season.
- Ran for 51+ yards in 9 of his last 11 (81.82%) games when he is averaging at least 4.4 rush yards per attempt on the season.
Those are some high hit rates!
Let’s touch on his season stats and the most important one I monitor: yards per carry.
Singletary is averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season, and with that in mind, he needs just ten carries to hit this line.
In three games this season, the Bills’ top running back has finished with 11, 13, and 11 carries.
There’s every reason to expect a similar usage, if not more, in a blowout.
Bet Singletary’s over with confidence on Sunday and good luck!
For more NFL information, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets.
