The NFL Draft isn’t just another date on the football calendar—it’s a multi-day off-season spectacle that blends rampant speculation, insider news, rumors, and a dash of last-minute chaos. As an NFL draft props bettor, you’re not picking game winners but trying to predict how each player will come off the draft board.
Instead of worrying about who covers the point spread, betting on the draft has you trying to predict which player will be picked first overall, who’ll slip further than expected, and how many athletes from a powerhouse conference will storm the opening round.
Keep reading as we provide expert hand-selected picks and go into detail on current NFL Draft odds, the best bets available, and tips on strategy for betting on the 2025 NFL Draft at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
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Best Value Bets For This Year’s NFL Draft – Top 10 Mock Draft
Editors Note: In addition to Underdog, be sure to check out FastDraft as a year-long option for NFL DFS drafts and tournaments.
1. Cam Ward, QB, Miami
Projected NFL team: Tennessee Titans (No. 1 overall pick)
Ward is presumably coveted by the top three teams in the first round, as well as the Jets, Raiders and even the Saints further down the top 10. However, despite the fact Ward may not fully fit the “generational talent” label new Titans president of football operations Chad Brinker promised Tennessee wouldn’t pass on at No. 1 overall, he’s worthy of hearing his name called first.
Brian Callahan got a splash of cold water at the quarterback position last season as a rookie head coach after being spoiled by working with Joe Burrow in Cincinnati. As much as Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter will tempt Tennessee’s brain trust, Callahan doesn’t figure to go into what could be a pivotal season for his head-coaching tenure with uncertainty under center for a second straight year.
The Titans didn’t pursue any of the front-line veteran quarterback options in free agency, and Ward has done nothing during the pre-draft process to hurt his standing as the presumptive No. 1 pick. This pick makes plenty of sense for both player – Ward will have a chance to grow in an offense that has an interesting mix of veterans and talented youth at some of the skill positions – and team.
Where to play: Cam Ward No. 1 Overall Pick | FanDuel
2. Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado
Projected NFL team: Cleveland Browns (No. 2 overall pick)
Draft projects have had the Browns going a few different directions with this pick. Naturally, Cleveland could certainly use a quarterback as it heads into what could be the final stage of their disentangling from the albatross that is Deshaun Watson’s contract, and Shedeur Sanders would therefore address a big need.
Even with Cleveland curiously only adding Kenny Pickett to its quarterback depth chart this offseason and trading away Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the same transaction, I still see Hunter as the pick. Opinions vary on where the two-way star will play at the NFL level and/or how frequently he’ll moonlight at whatever isn’t considered his primary position. There’s been more talk of Hunter being deployed mostly at corner, but the Browns could naturally have other ideas.
I expect head coach Kevin Stefanski and his staff to push for extracting maximum value from the vast skill set of such a high pick. Given his skill set, Hunter could be a major addition to an offense that wouldn’t immediately put significant responsibility on his shoulders considering incumbents such as Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku and Cedric Tillman.
Where to play: Travis Hunter No. 2 Overall Pick | Caesars
3. Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
Projected NFL team: New York Jets (No. 3 overall pick, trade up from No. 7 with Giants)
With Cleveland opting to try and potentially address two spots with one superstar at No. 2, the path is cleared for Sanders to land in the Big Apple, except not with the team he’s been most often projected to.
In our March top-10 projection, we did indeed have Sanders being scooped up by the G-Men. However, Brian Daboll’s squad has gone on to ink both Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston to deals since that point, and although they’ve talked the talk about that not taking Sanders out of consideration, we’re not buying it.
The fact the team decided to invest in two veteran quarterbacks at more than bargain-bin salaries supports the notion they’ll opt to pick up even more draft capital while still nabbing a premium player at No. 7.
Meanwhile, the Jets, who, unlike the Giants, don’t have a general manager and head coach on the hot seat in 2025, make the move up for the long-term investment in Sanders, who perhaps will have a chance to press Justin Fields for the starting job right away. However, if he’s not quite ready, Fields is a fine bridge solution who’s only signed for two years.
Meanwhile, Sanders lands in an offense that could be much improved with at least one more addition at receiver, considering the presence of Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson and Braelon Allen.
Where to play: Shedeur Sanders No. 3 Overall Pick | BetMGM
4. Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State
Projected NFL team: New England Patriots (No. 4 overall pick)
Carter is projected by some to go as high as No. 1 overall, so this could actually be considered somewhat of an outlier spot for him to come off the board. Yet, considering the overall reasoning behind the projected top three, the dominant Nitanny Lions pass rusher lands right in the lap of the Patriots.
New head coach Mike Vrabel emphasized the importance of disrupting opposing quarterbacks in his introductory press conference, and this year, there’s arguably no better player than Carter that can be plucked from the college ranks for that purpose. In 42 regular-season and postseason/bowl games during his three years at Penn State, Carter collected a whopping 41 tackles for loss, including 23.0 sacks.
New Patriots defensive coordinator Terrell Williams is also a former defensive line coach that is expected to implement an aggressive philosophy. Carter thrived after moving from linebacker to defensive end for his junior season, another reason which renders this landing spot a potentially excellent fit.
Where to play: Abdul Carter No. 4 Overall Pick | FanDuel
5. Mason Graham, DT, Michigan
Projected NFL team: Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 5 overall pick)
The Jags would have gladly snagged Carter had he fallen one more spot, but Graham is one compelling consolation prize. The accomplished Wolverine consistently displayed impressive push from the interior of the defensive line, finishing his college career with 108 total tackles, including 18 for loss – nine of which were sacks – over 39 regular-season and postseason/bowl games.
Jacksonville has multiple concerns on defense, and one of several first-round-worthy cornerbacks would also be a welcome addition. However, the Jags allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game (132.6) and were tied for second-most rushing TDs given up to running backs (16) last season, while also accruing the fourth-fewest sacks (34).
Graham addresses both those areas of concern in one dynamic package, while new defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile excelled as the Packers’ run-defense coordinator a season ago and would therefore covet/possibly maximize a player of Graham’s skill set.
Where to play: Mason Graham No. 5 Overall Pick | Caesars
6. Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
Projected NFL team: Las Vegas Raiders (No. 6 overall pick)
The Raiders may have found a diamond in the rough in Sincere McCormick late in a lost 2024 season, as the undrafted rookie put together a pair of solid performances in Weeks 13 and 14 before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. Las Vegas did add Raheem Mostert in free agency and still has holdover Zamir White, but neither player profiles as a long-term solution nor anything resembling an impactful lead back.
That makes Jeanty a very logical pick for Vegas at No. 6 overall, considering he’s unequivocally considered the best running back in the class. The Boise State standout rushed for an unfathomable 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns as a senior in 2024, and he also demonstrated plenty of pass-catching ability by virtue of an 80-862-6 receiving line over his three-year college career.
A potentially bumpy first season could await Jeanty if Las Vegas’ offensive line, which facilitated a league-low 79.8 rushing yards per game last season at a league-worst 3.6 yards per rush attempt, doesn’t improve. However, the addition of Geno Smith under center is a significant upgrade that should certainly lead to defenses having more respect for the Raiders’ air attack and by extension, being kept more honest against the run.
Where to play: Ashton Jeanty No. 6 Overall Pick | BetMGM
7. Will Campbell, OT, LSU
Projected NFL team: New York Giants (No. 7 overall pick, trade down from No. 3 with Jets)
The No. 7 selection represents the top pick in the Giants’ return for the swap of first-round spots with the Jets, and Big Blue parlays it into what might not be the most exciting selection in the eyes of their fans, but a prudent one nonetheless.
Campbell and Texas’ Kelvin Banks Jr. are considered to be neck-and-neck as far as the top offensive tackle prospect, but the former is the pick here as a versatile option who’s ready to start on Day 1. With the Giants investing in the aforementioned Wilson and Winston, a pair of veterans who could use all the pass protection they can get, adding Campbell as a possible bookend to Andrew Thomas makes sense.
The Giants allowed 48 sacks a season ago and would be doing a disservice to presumed starter Wilson and Malik Nabers by undercutting their chances of success with another year of spotty blocking up front. Campbell’s presence could also help unlock Tyrone Tracy’s full potential after the latter showed plenty of promise last season despite the sub-par play up front.
Where to play: Will Campbell No. 7 Overall Pick | FanDuel
8. Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
Projected NFL team: Carolina Panthers (No. 8 overall pick)
In the previous iteration of this article, we somewhat lamented (on Dave Canales’ behalf) the fact the Jets would scoop Warren up just one pick prior. However, given how things have played out in this version up to this point, we can project Warren falling to Carolina, where Canales gets an instrumental piece for his emerging offense.
Warren produced a Brock Bowers-like 104-1,233-8 line as a senior at Penn State in 2024, but perhaps almost as eye-catching is the fact he was able to tack on 218 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground as well. A skill set like this in the hands of the creative Canales, who seemed to really move the needle on the embattled Bryce Young down the stretch last season, could pay big dividends almost immediately.
Carolina has half-heartedly tried to address the tight end position in recent seasons with the likes of Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble, but Warren will give Young a major upgrade that will also open up the field for every other skill-position asset.
Where to play: Tyler Warren No. 8 Overall Pick | Caesars
9. Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
Projected NFL team: New Orleans Saints (No. 9 overall pick)
As mentioned back in March, the Saints are very good candidates to pick up some defensive help in the early rounds of this draft, but McMillan is too good a prospect to pass up at this juncture.
New Orleans has recommitted to Derek Carr under center for at least this season and could potentially be interested in Jaxson Dart at some point in the draft, but McMillan gives Carr a much-needed No. 2 wide receiver weapon with size alongside Chris Olave, who’ll be returning from a concussion.
McMillan finished his college career at Arizona with 2,721 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns over his last two seasons, a glimpse of the substantial upside he brings at a towering 6-foot-5 and 210-plus pounds. McMillan’s skill set should complement Olave’s perfectly and also give both Brandin Cooks and Rashid Shaheed plenty of opportunities to run routes at cornerbacks further down each team’s depth chart, particularly enticing considering the speed of each.
Where to play: Tetairoa McMillan No. 9 Overall Pick | BetMGM
10. Kelvin Banks Jr, OT, Texas
Projected NFL team: Chicago Bears (No. 10 overall pick)
As mentioned in our March article, the Bears’ offensive line carried a great deal of the blame for the team’s would-be 2024 dream season turning into a nightmare. Chicago yielded a team-record and league-high 68 sacks on the way to a 5-12 record.
We projected Alabama’s Tyler Booker going in this spot to Chicago back in March, but we’ll pivot to the highly regarded Banks this time around. The former Longhorn’s outlook has been on the rise, and as previously alluded to, he’s ranked ahead of Campbell in some circles. Banks is considered capable of excelling at either guard or tackle, and the Bears can use all the quality versatility they can get in front of Caleb Williams.
Banks’ decorated college career saw him prep for the NFL by winning both the Lombardi Award and Outland Trophy while also snagging first-team AP All-American and All-SEC honors. The Bears could go a couple of different ways with this pick in terms of who they select, but it’s a virtual lock they’re snagging one of the several high-quality offensive lineman available at No. 10.
Where to play: Kelvin Banks Jr. No. 10 Overall Pick | FanDuel
Most Popular NFL Draft Prop Bets
Let’s discuss the most popular types of NFL Draft prop bets, including how each bet type works. The explanations highlight key details and insider terms, making it easier to grasp these unique betting markets.
From predicting the first overall pick to wagering on whether a top prospect is selected earlier or later than expected to the lovingly nicknamed and highly unpredictable “Mr. Irrelevant” final pick, this is your primer on what each bet type is and how they are settled.
First Overall Pick Analysis
Cam Ward is currently the odds-on favorite to land at number one, but that could change if the Titans decide to trade their first overall pick. The books now see this market as a two-horse race between Ward (-155) and Carter (+170).
Two-way standout Travis Hunter (WR, CB) rounds out the top three at an enticing +950 at FanDuel. As attractive as Hunter’s odds are, it’s important to remember that the first overall pick is traditionally slotted for a quarterback. Six of the last seven No. 1’s have been QBs, and 20 of the previous 27.
NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Pick Odds & Trends
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cameron Ward | -155 |
| Abdul Carter | +170 |
| Travis Hunter | +950 |
| Shedeur Sanders | +1000 |
| Jaxson Dart | +7500 |
| Mykel Williams | +7500 |
| Mason Graham | +7500 |
| Shemar Stewart | +7500 |
| Kelvin Banks Jr. | +12000 |
| Will Campbell | +12000 |
This is arguably the most talked about bet each year, this market revolves around who will be selected first overall.
A prospect who aligns with a franchise’s biggest team needs or impresses at the NFL Combine – a talent showcase where draft-eligible players run drills like the 40-yard dash – often sees their odds improve. A wave of media buzz can also create significant line movement, so the favorite might not always stay on top until draft day.
Player odds, such as +300 or -200, can shift drastically as draft day approaches, especially if speculation arises that a team might trade up to secure the top pick.
Mock drafts, which feature expert and fan projections of each team’s selections, can offer insights into potential shifts. While a sudden line movement may be triggered by a hot rumor or surprising insider news.
Key Detail: If the player you wager on is selected first overall, your ticket cashes. If another name is called before them, you lose.
Over/Under Draft Position for Top Prospects
In these markets, the sportsbook assigns a numerical slot, say 5.5, and you bet on whether a particular athlete will be taken earlier (under) or later (over) than that position.
This is where the NFL Scouting Combine results can send a prospect’s reputation soaring or sinking. A jaw-dropping 40-yard dash or bench press at the combine might propel someone from the back half of the first round into the top ten, while lackluster showings can do the opposite.
Keep tabs on shifting team needs, too, because if a high-profile quarterback gets injured just before the draft, you might suddenly see another QB’s draft stock go through the roof.
Key Detail: If you choose “under” 5.5, you need that player selected at pick number five or earlier. If he goes sixth or beyond, you lose (and vice versa for “over”).
Player-Specific NFL Draft Props
Another popular NFL Draft prop bet is picking the over/under for a player’s draft position. You can expect these odds to be available at most sportsbooks in the coming weeks, and you’ll usually find the top 10 or 20 prospects on the odds board for this market. Below is a a look at some of the odds from the 2024 NFL Draft.
QB – J.J. McCarthy
Over 5.5 (+135)
Under 5.5 (-170)
WR – Brian Thomas Jr.
Over 16.5 (-190)
Under 16.5 (+155)
QB – Bo Nix
Over 26.5 (-280)
Under 26.5 (+210)
Notably, all of the plus-money wagers hit on those bets, with McCarthy going 10th, Thomas Jr. 23rd, and Nix 12th.
Position of the First Player Drafted
Not to be confused with the first overall pick! Here, you’re betting on which position will have its top player chosen before all others at that position, either quarterback, wide receiver, edge rusher, etc. It might sound quirky, but the unpredictability at this late stage of the draft can create a unique thrill.
Quarterbacks are often favored here because NFL teams can be desperate to find the next face of their franchise, but every year features a few breakout stars from other positions.
So if you hear chatter that a certain QB is a “lock” (a near certainty) for the top ten, you might lean toward quarterbacks winning the race to be drafted first. In contrast, a dominant lineman can sometimes steal the spotlight, especially if there’s a shortage of high-end talent at that position in a particular draft year.
Key Detail: If you say “first running back drafted” and that specific player is indeed the earliest RB off the board, you’ve nailed your pick.
College Conference Props
For the NCAA diehards, college football conference props are a fun way to leverage your knowledge of which conference (e.g., SEC, Big Ten, ACC) churns out the best NFL talent.
Sportsbooks set an over/under total for how many players from a given league will be chosen in, say, the first round.
Total Big 12 players drafted in the first round
Over 3.5 (-170)
Under 3.5 (+135)
Total ACC players drafted in the first round
Over 4.5 (+215)
Under 4.5 (-275)
Total Pac 12 players drafted in the first round
Over 6.5 (-250)
Under 6.5 (+200)
If the line for the SEC is 5.5, and you believe a half-dozen or more future NFL stars are waiting to be scooped up from that conference, you take the over. If you suspect they’re slightly overrated, you hit the under.
Key Detail: If you think a conference is stacked with future pros, you take the over; if you suspect they’re overrated, you go under. How well you know each school’s prospects – and how teams value them – can make or break these bets.
Mr. Irrelevant Odds
“Mr. Irrelevant” is a long-standing nickname fondly given to the very last player drafted. And while the earliest picks get most of the spotlight, the draft ends with this final selection.
Trades in the later rounds can also shuffle the order, so if you guess that a linebacker will be the final call and it actually turns out that way, it’s a fun (and often profitable) twist at the very end of the event.
With Mr. Irrelevant odds, you can bet to the bitter end of the draft. This bet is, of course, the last pick of the draft, made wildly popular by Brock Purdy a couple of years ago. The odds usually consist of which position will take home the dubious honor. Here are this year’s odds from a top sportsbook:
QB (+330)
DL or EDGE (+475)
OL (+550)
CB (+650)
WR (+650)
LB (+850)
S (+1000)
RB (+1000)
TE (+1200)
K/P/LS (+1800)
Key Detail: This wager stays alive until that final name is announced, so even if the first round goes according to plan, chaos can reign on Day 3. If you choose, say, “running back,” and the last player selected is indeed a running back, your ticket pays off, even if almost no one else saw it coming.
Other Potential Draft Props
Most sportsbooks won’t stop at the categories above. They’ll offer a wide array of angles including “Team To Make the First Pick,” “Exact Draft Slot,” “First Player Drafted by Position,” and more.
All of these props revolve around the same central idea that there’s no on-field action to analyze, so the betting market hinges on insider clues, scouting reports, and the evolving strategies of each team’s front office.
The rumor mill can run hot, and those last-minute surprises on draft day keep everyone guessing until the commissioner steps to the podium.
Best Long Shot Bets for the 2025 NFL Draft
NFL Draft long shot bets can be subjective, but we’ve narrowed down a few that we like in 2025. It can be smart to lock in your long shots early, because odds can shift dramatically if and when any pre-draft trades are made.
Team To Pick First – Las Vegas Raiders +1200
The Raiders were zoned in on acquiring Matthew Stafford, but those dreams were dashed when the Los Angeles Rams retained the future Hall of Fame quarterback last week. The Silver and Black could now shift their focus to trading up for a QB. While Aaron Rodgers is suddenly in the mix, we still think there is value here at +1200, especially since Tennessee has announced it would listen to offers.
First Overall Pick – Travis Hunter +950
These odds are too bloated not to sprinkle a little lunch money on. By all accounts, Travis Hunter is a generational two-way talent that has drawn comparisons to baseball superstar Shohei Ohtani. He’s an electric player that can do it all and is arguably the best player in the draft.
Team Player Drafted By – Ashton Jeanty, Denver Broncos +650
While many pundits dismiss Jeanty falling to Denver at the 20th pick, there seems to be some momentum that the Broncos will try to trade up. Jeanty is an all-world talent at running back, and the Boise State star would fill a much-needed role on Sean Payton’s squad.
Here are some more NFL Draft props that you will find at select sportsbooks:
- Team-specific props (first drafted position)
- Second overall pick
- Third overall pick
- Fourth overall pick
- To be a top-five pick
- To be a top-ten pick
- First drafted quarterback
- First drafted wide receiver
- First drafted running back
- First drafted offensive lineman
- Total quarterbacks drafted in the first round
- Total running backs drafted in the first round
Best Sportsbooks for NFL Draft Prop Betting
When it comes to NFL Draft prop betting, you can count on the usual suspects to provide the most markets. As we inch closer to draft day, you can expect sportsbooks to beef up their prop offerings.
Here are our top four choices for variety, pricing, and user experience:
BetMGM Sportsbook
BetMGM can be slow to release NFL Draft props, but it’s worth keeping in your rotation as we get closer to the biggest day of the offseason. One of the best things about BetMGM is its frequent ‘odds boost’ and ‘no sweat’ tokens.
The sportsbook unveils new offers daily, and you can count on it firing something special up for the NFL Draft like it does every year.
Caesars Sportsbook
Caesars isn’t always considered to have the friendliest odds, but it does stand out as one of the best sportsbooks for prop betting. For the NFL Draft, you’ll find props like player draft position, team-specific props, first player by position, and much more.
Caesars is also known for its specials and odds boosts for big events. You can expect some excellent promotions for the NFL Draft as it approaches.
FanDuel Sportsbook
Like DraftKings, FanDuel cut its teeth in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) space, so it knows its way around prop betting. It’s not quite as quick as DK to release NFL Draft props, but the markets will start picking up closer to April 24.
In recent years, FanDuel has also provided new props after each draft day, offering fresh markets to bettors until the final round.
DraftKings Sportsbook
DraftKings needs no introduction and is considered one of the top options for prop betting, regardless of sport. It boasts a world-class app, which makes finding props and placing bets a breeze. It’s also one of the fastest sites to release early prop lines and currently has a deeper offering than most books.
You’ll find all the NFL Draft prop staples (first overall pick, exact order picks, first player by positions, etc.) as well as a handful of player parlay specials like the Las Vegas Raiders to draft both Shedeur and Shilo Sanders (+2000).
NFL Draft Betting Strategies
The NFL Draft has become a massive sports betting event in recent years, sometimes to the chagrin of sportsbooks. Unlike a regular NFL, NBA, or MLB game, the NFL Draft has proven difficult to model for sportsbooks. Many books have reported big losses over the last few years, so it’s definitely an opportunity for bettors to find value.
Here are some tips to help you beat the books on draft day.
Follow Mock Drafts and Insider News
The most important prep you can do for the NFL Draft is immerse yourself in insider news circles and reputable mock drafts. Bookmakers rely heavily on insider news from top reporters and analysts, and you should, too.
Find your go-to sources and soak up as much info as you can. When you find an interesting nugget, search the NFL Draft prop markets on your apps to see if there’s a chance to capitalize on it.
When it comes to mock drafts, view as many as possible from people you trust. Sometimes, you’ll see a consensus start to form that you can use to your advantage.
Shop Around for the Best Odds
If you’re a sports bettor, there’s no reason not to be signed up at multiple sportsbooks. Of course, claiming several welcome offers is nice, but the real value comes from line shopping. Sometimes, the variances can be staggering. It’s always worth keeping a few tabs open and comparing pricing at multiple books.
For instance, as of this writing, Travis Hunter is +600 at DraftKings (to go first overall) and +1100 at BetMGM.
Follow the Steam (With Caution)
In sports betting, steam refers to a drastic line movement that appears to come out of the blue. This is usually caused by a piece of insider information or some heavy action from sharp bettors. Either way, if you have your finger on the pulse, you might be able to get an edge before some of the sportsbooks catch up.
However, proceed cautiously, as chasing steam is far from a golden ticket. For example, last year, Will Anderson was the consensus favorite to go second overall until the night before the draft. Then, on draft day, C.J. Stroud’s odds to be taken second shifted from +500 to –2000 in a blink. If you were chasing Anderson Steam, you took a big L last year.
Common Mistakes To Avoid When Betting on NFL Draft Props
While there’s plenty of opportunity to gain an edge when betting on the NFL Draft, there are also some common mistakes to avoid. Here are some things not to do when making your NFL Draft props.
Overreacting To Last-Minute News
Not all pre-draft news should be taken as gospel. Ensure you get your information from reputable sources, as plenty of sensational stories and hype are out there, especially right before the draft. Ground yourself in facts, and don’t get swayed by wild news that isn’t confirmed by reporters that you trust.
Ignoring Line Movement
Line movement, especially significant movement, is usually a signal that sharp bettors have taken a position on a side or there has been an insider report or leaked information from a credible source. Keep an eagle eye on the bets you are targeting, and look at multiple sportsbooks to see if a consensus has formed. On the flip side, sometimes lines can move due to hype. If you can diagnose this, it can create value for you.
Disregarding Team Needs and Fit
It’s easy to get caught up in a player’s talent and rankings, but remember, you are not the GM drafting the player. Consider a team’s needs and culture and analyze whether the player you’re looking at is still a logical choice for that organization. Research the team’s roster and draft history to shed light on whether a certain athlete will be a fit with the franchise.
How Sportsbooks Set & Adjust NFL Draft Prop Odds
Sportsbooks set NFL Draft prop odds using a combination of several factors, including expert analysis, insider information, sharp betting action, expert mock drafts, team needs, player performances, and much more.
The NFL Draft is particularly hard for sportsbooks due to the unpredictability of the draft itself. Many teams keep their cards close to the vest, and bookmakers cannot get an accurate read. Who could have predicted quarterback Michael Penix Jr. would be picked 8th overall by the Atlanta Falcons last year after they had just signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year $180 million contract in the offseason?
Breaking news and sharp bettors can also cause radical line movement, causing sportsbooks to stay on their toes. Furthermore, draft day trades drastically alter multiple markets like overall pick, team-specific props, and more. This is why the NFL Draft is arguably the most difficult sports betting time of the year for the books. Here’s a look at some factors that come into play when sportsbooks set the odds. It’s a good idea for you to be looking at these as well:
- Draft order
- Line movement
- Trades
- Betting activity
- Historical draft trends
- Insider information and news
- Expert mock drafts
- Team needs
- Combine performances
- Team draft history