The NFL Draft isn’t just another date on the football calendar—it’s a multi-day off-season spectacle that blends rampant speculation, insider news, rumors, and a dash of last-minute chaos.
As an NFL draft props bettor, you’re not picking game winners but trying to predict how each player will come off the draft board. Instead of worrying about who covers the point spread, betting on the draft has you trying to predict which player will be picked first overall, who’ll slip further than expected, and how many athletes from a powerhouse conference will storm the opening round.
Keep reading as we provide expert hand-selected picks and go into detail on current NFL Draft odds, the best bets available, and tips on strategy for betting on the 2025 NFL Draft at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
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Best Value Bets For This Year’s NFL Draft – Top 10 Mock Draft
1. Cam Ward, QB, Miami
Projected NFL team: Tennessee Titans (No. 1 overall pick)
Ward is presumably coveted by the top three teams in the first round, as well as the Jets, Raiders and even the Saints further down the top 10. However, despite the fact Ward may not fully fit the “generational talent” label new Titans president of football operations Chad Brinker promised Tennessee wouldn’t pass on at No. 1 overall, he’s worthy of hearing his name called first.
Brian Callahan got a splash of cold water at the quarterback position last season as a rookie head coach after being spoiled by working with Joe Burrow in Cincinnati. As much as Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter will tempt Tennessee’s brain trust, Callahan doesn’t figure to go into what could be a pivotal season for his head-coaching tenure with uncertainty under center for a second straight year.
Free-agent options such as Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers, at this point in their careers, aren’t likely to gravitate toward teams that don’t fit the “one or two players away” criteria. Tennessee could prove this projection wrong by pouncing on a younger player like Justin Fields in free agency, but otherwise, this pick makes plenty of sense for both player – Ward will have a chance to grow in an offense that has an interesting mix of veterans and talented youth at some of the skill positions – and team.
Where to play: Cam Ward No. 1 Overall Pick | FanDuel
2. Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado
Projected NFL team: Cleveland Browns (No. 2 overall pick)
Early draft projections have the Browns going a few different directions with this pick, although Hunter seems to be the odds-on favorite by a relatively slight margin as of late February. Naturally, Cleveland could certainly use a quarterback as it heads into what could be the final stage of their disentangling from the albatross that is Deshaun Watson’s contract, and Shedeur Sanders would therefore address a big need. Carter could also see his already robust appeal increase in the Browns’ eyes if a dissatisfied Myles Garrett gets his trade request granted.
Nevertheless, I envision Kevin Stefanski addressing the concerns under center with a free agent such as Sam Darnold, Cousins or Fields and instead pouncing on Hunter with his first pick. Opinions vary on where the two-way star will play at the NFL level and/or how frequently he’ll moonlight at whatever isn’t considered his primary position. There’s been more talk of Hunter being deployed mostly at corner, but the Browns could naturally have other ideas.
I naturally expect Stefanski and his staff to push for extracting maximum value from the vast skill set of such a high pick. And, with competent quarterback play, Hunter could be a major addition to an offense that wouldn’t immediately put significant responsibility on his shoulders considering incumbents such as Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Cedric Tillman and other potential additions in free agency.
Where to play: Travis Hunter No. 2 Overall Pick | Caesars
3. Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
Projected NFL team: New York Giants (No. 3 overall pick)
With Cleveland resisting the urge to turn in Shedeur’s card at No. 2, the G-Men unsurprisingly rejoice and nab Hunter’s Buffaloes teammate at No. 3. General manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll miraculously survived the disastrous 2024 season, but they’re undeniably both in the administrative version of a “contract year” in 2025.
There are simply no answers at quarterback on the current roster, and much like the Titans, New York wouldn’t be able to make anything resembling a coherent sales pitch to a proven veteran quarteback about being a serious contender. That leaves every arrow pointing to Sanders, who many expect is much better prepared to handle the Big Apple media spotlight than a typical rookie, considering his lineage and closely scrutinized college career.
Granted, the pressure for immediate success would make either New York team less than ideal for any signal-caller. Additionally, Sanders would coincidentally be working with Malik Nabers, whose mere presence reminds many of college battery mate Jayden Daniels and his meteoric rise as a rookie in 2024, as his top target. Yet, Nabers’ presence happens to also make an airtight case for why this would be the right spot for Sanders, who’s thought to possess less raw talent than Ward and will therefore receive a significant boost from a receiver with virtually limitless talent.
Where to play: Shedeur Sanders No. 3 Overall Pick | BetMGM
4. Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State
Projected NFL team: New England Patriots (No. 4 overall pick)
Carter is projected by some to go as high as No. 1 overall, so this could actually be considered somewhat of an outlier spot for him to come off the board. Yet, considering the overall reasoning behind the projected top three, the dominant Nitanny Lions pass rusher lands right in the lap of the Patriots.
New head coach Mike Vrabel emphasized the importance of disrupting opposing quarterbacks in his introductory press conference, and this year, there’s arguably no better player than Carter that can be plucked from the college ranks for that purpose. In 42 regular-season and postseason/bowl games during his three years at Penn State, Carter collected a whopping 41 tackles for loss, including 23.0 sacks.
New Patriots defensive coordinator Terrell Williams is also a former defensive line coach that is expected to implement an aggressive philosophy. Carter thrived after moving from linebacker to defensive end for his junior season, another reason which renders this landing spot a potentially excellent fit.
Where to play: Abdul Carter No. 4 Overall Pick | FanDuel
5. Mason Graham, DT, Michigan
Projected NFL team: Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 5 overall pick)
The Jags would have gladly snagged Carter had he fallen one more spot, but Graham is one compelling consolation prize. The accomplished Wolverine consistently displayed impressive push from the interior of the defensive line, finishing his college career with 108 total tackles, including 18 for loss – nine of which were sacks – over 39 regular-season and postseason/bowl games.
Jacksonville has multiple concerns on defense, and one of several first-round-worthy cornerbacks would also be a welcome addition. However, the Jags allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game (132.6) and were tied for second-most rushing TDs given up to running backs (16) last season, while also accruing the fourth-fewest sacks (34).
Graham addresses both those areas of concern in one dynamic package, while new defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile excelled as the Packers’ run-defense coordinator a season ago and would therefore covet/possibly maximize a player of Graham’s skill set.
Where to play: Mason Graham No. 5 Overall Pick | Caesars
6. Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
Projected NFL team: Las Vegas Raiders (No. 6 overall pick)
The Raiders may have found a diamond in the rough in Sincere McCormick late in a lost 2024 season, as the undrafted rookie put together a pair of solid performances in Weeks 13 and 14 before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. The rest of the ground attack – Zamir White, Ameer Abdullah and Alexander Mattison – could well be out the door this offseason.
That makes Jeanty a very logical pick for Vegas at No. 6 overall, considering he’s unequivocally considered the best running back in the class by a long shot. The Boise State standout rushed for an unfathomable 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns as a senior in 2024, and he also demonstrated plenty of pass-catching ability by virtue of an 80-862-6 receiving line over his three-year college career.
Yet, this is the first instance in the first round where I see the player likely having an easier early-career path to success elsewhere. Las Vegas’ offensive line helped facilitate a league-low 79.8 rushing yards per game last season at a league-worst 3.6 yards per rush attempt. Consequently, it could certainly be argued a premium lineman the likes of Josh Simmons, Tyler Booker or Donovan Jackson would be a better fit and indirectly benefit Jeanty, who’d almost certainly work behind a better offensive line anywhere else.
Where to play: Ashton Jeanty No. 6 Overall Pick | BetMGM
7. Tyler Warren, TE, Michigan
Projected NFL team: New York Jets (No. 7 overall pick)
As alluded to earlier, the Jets are another team badly in need of a solution under center, so much so that there’s even been rumblings of a possible reunion with pending free agent and one-time franchise third overall pick Sam Darnold this offseason.
Darnold or Fields could indeed be free-agent QBs that make sense for New York given they’re both under 30, unless New York is set on working out a deal to move up in the first round and grab Ward or Sanders. The Jets may be hesitant, however, given the likely cost of such a transaction.
Therefore, given how I’ve projected the first round so far, it’s conceivable New York goes with a player it might consider the best skill-position asset available at this point in Warren, who produced a Brock Bowers-like 104-1,233-8 line as a senior at Penn State in 2024. The highly versatile prospect added 218 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground as well, and he’d be an elite weapon as both a blocker and pass catcher.
Where to play: Tyler Warren No. 7 Overall Pick | FanDuel
8. Mykel Williams, EDGE, Georgia
Projected NFL team: Carolina Panthers (No. 8 overall pick)
Despite easily being able to envision a fit for a player as gifted as Warren in New York, I believe Panthers head coach Dave Canales would have loved to have gotten a chance to insert him as a potential paradigm-shifting piece in his promising offensive scheme. Carolina hasn’t found an answer at tight end since Greg Olsen’s last season with the team in 2019, and Bryce Young could use all the help he can get to continue his ascension in 2025.
Yet, with Warren gone at this point, Canales turns to the other side of the ball and targets another position of dire need. Carolina was hurt by Brian Burns’ departure last offseason, generating just 32 sacks in 2024, tied for third fewest in the league. Williams was a disruptive force for an elite school, recording 23 tackles for loss, including 14.0 sacks, over his 40 career regular-season and postseason/bowl games for the Bulldogs.
Where to play: Mykel Williams No. 8 Overall Pick | Caesars
9. Jalon Walker, EDGE, Georgia
Projected NFL team: New Orleans Saints (No. 9 overall pick)
The run on Georgia players who can get after the passer continues at No. 9, as Williams’ teammate Walker hears the defense-needy Saints call his name. Walker rang up 19 tackles for loss, including 12.5 sacks, in his 43 total college games, and despite new head coach Kellen Moore likely tempted to take impressive ASU wideout Tetairoa McMillan in this spot, Walker makes sense.
New Orleans, like the Jaguars and Panthers before them in this round, can’t ignore the deficiencies on the defensive front. The Saints managed a modest 39 sacks across 17 regular-season games in 2024 and gave up 141.4 rushing yards per game – the second most in the league – including 174.3 over the final three contests of the campaign. The Saints would gladly take Williams here as well if he fell one more spot, but Walker more than fits the bill with his elite speed and versatility.
Where to play: Jalon Walker No. 9 Overall Pick | BetMGM
10. Tyler Booker, OG, Alabama
Projected NFL team: Chicago Bears (No. 10 overall pick)
One of the primary reasons why what appeared to be shaping up as a dream season for the Bears quickly devolved into a nightmare was the team’s alarming pass-protection issues. Rookie first overall pick Caleb Williams may well have been occasionally guilty of typical first-year QB transgressions such as lack of pocket awareness or holding the ball too long, but there’s no denying the deficiencies of a line that yielded a team-record and league-high 68 sacks.
Booker would go a long way toward starting the fortification process. His scouting report indicates he has the versatility and mobility to excel as both a run blocker and pass protector, with the former also key to helping Williams remain upright and finding open targets more consistently by affording him a viable ground attack defenses will have to respect.
Where to play: Tyler Booker No. 10 Overall Pick | FanDuel
Most Popular NFL Draft Prop Bets
Let’s discuss the most popular types of NFL Draft prop bets, including how each bet type works. The explanations highlight key details and insider terms, making it easier to grasp these unique betting markets.
From predicting the first overall pick to wagering on whether a top prospect is selected earlier or later than expected to the lovingly nicknamed and highly unpredictable “Mr. Irrelevant” final pick, this is your primer on what each bet type is and how they are settled.
First Overall Pick Analysis
Cam Ward is currently the odds-on favorite to land at number one, but that could change if the Titans decide to trade their first overall pick. The books now see this market as a two-horse race between Ward (-155) and Carter (+170).
Two-way standout Travis Hunter (WR, CB) rounds out the top three at an enticing +950 at FanDuel. As attractive as Hunter’s odds are, it’s important to remember that the first overall pick is traditionally slotted for a quarterback. Six of the last seven No. 1’s have been QBs, and 20 of the previous 27.
NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Pick Odds & Trends
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cameron Ward | -155 |
| Abdul Carter | +170 |
| Travis Hunter | +950 |
| Shedeur Sanders | +1000 |
| Jaxson Dart | +7500 |
| Mykel Williams | +7500 |
| Mason Graham | +7500 |
| Shemar Stewart | +7500 |
| Kelvin Banks Jr. | +12000 |
| Will Campbell | +12000 |
This is arguably the most talked about bet each year, this market revolves around who will be selected first overall.
A prospect who aligns with a franchise’s biggest team needs or impresses at the NFL Combine – a talent showcase where draft-eligible players run drills like the 40-yard dash – often sees their odds improve. A wave of media buzz can also create significant line movement, so the favorite might not always stay on top until draft day.
Player odds, such as +300 or -200, can shift drastically as draft day approaches, especially if speculation arises that a team might trade up to secure the top pick.
Mock drafts, which feature expert and fan projections of each team’s selections, can offer insights into potential shifts. While a sudden line movement may be triggered by a hot rumor or surprising insider news.
Key Detail: If the player you wager on is selected first overall, your ticket cashes. If another name is called before them, you lose.
Over/Under Draft Position for Top Prospects
In these markets, the sportsbook assigns a numerical slot, say 5.5, and you bet on whether a particular athlete will be taken earlier (under) or later (over) than that position.
This is where the NFL Scouting Combine results can send a prospect’s reputation soaring or sinking. A jaw-dropping 40-yard dash or bench press at the combine might propel someone from the back half of the first round into the top ten, while lackluster showings can do the opposite.
Keep tabs on shifting team needs, too, because if a high-profile quarterback gets injured just before the draft, you might suddenly see another QB’s draft stock go through the roof.
Key Detail: If you choose “under” 5.5, you need that player selected at pick number five or earlier. If he goes sixth or beyond, you lose (and vice versa for “over”).
Player-Specific NFL Draft Props
Another popular NFL Draft prop bet is picking the over/under for a player’s draft position. You can expect these odds to be available at most sportsbooks in the coming weeks, and you’ll usually find the top 10 or 20 prospects on the odds board for this market. Below is a a look at some of the odds from the 2024 NFL Draft.
QB – J.J. McCarthy
Over 5.5 (+135)
Under 5.5 (-170)
WR – Brian Thomas Jr.
Over 16.5 (-190)
Under 16.5 (+155)
QB – Bo Nix
Over 26.5 (-280)
Under 26.5 (+210)
Notably, all of the plus-money wagers hit on those bets, with McCarthy going 10th, Thomas Jr. 23rd, and Nix 12th.
Position of the First Player Drafted
Not to be confused with the first overall pick! Here, you’re betting on which position will have its top player chosen before all others at that position, either quarterback, wide receiver, edge rusher, etc. It might sound quirky, but the unpredictability at this late stage of the draft can create a unique thrill.
Quarterbacks are often favored here because NFL teams can be desperate to find the next face of their franchise, but every year features a few breakout stars from other positions.
So if you hear chatter that a certain QB is a “lock” (a near certainty) for the top ten, you might lean toward quarterbacks winning the race to be drafted first. In contrast, a dominant lineman can sometimes steal the spotlight, especially if there’s a shortage of high-end talent at that position in a particular draft year.
Key Detail: If you say “first running back drafted” and that specific player is indeed the earliest RB off the board, you’ve nailed your pick.
College Conference Props
For the NCAA diehards, college football conference props are a fun way to leverage your knowledge of which conference (e.g., SEC, Big Ten, ACC) churns out the best NFL talent.
Sportsbooks set an over/under total for how many players from a given league will be chosen in, say, the first round.
Total Big 12 players drafted in the first round
Over 3.5 (-170)
Under 3.5 (+135)
Total ACC players drafted in the first round
Over 4.5 (+215)
Under 4.5 (-275)
Total Pac 12 players drafted in the first round
Over 6.5 (-250)
Under 6.5 (+200)
If the line for the SEC is 5.5, and you believe a half-dozen or more future NFL stars are waiting to be scooped up from that conference, you take the over. If you suspect they’re slightly overrated, you hit the under.
Key Detail: If you think a conference is stacked with future pros, you take the over; if you suspect they’re overrated, you go under. How well you know each school’s prospects – and how teams value them – can make or break these bets.
Mr. Irrelevant Odds
“Mr. Irrelevant” is a long-standing nickname fondly given to the very last player drafted. And while the earliest picks get most of the spotlight, the draft ends with this final selection.
Trades in the later rounds can also shuffle the order, so if you guess that a linebacker will be the final call and it actually turns out that way, it’s a fun (and often profitable) twist at the very end of the event.
With Mr. Irrelevant odds, you can bet to the bitter end of the draft. This bet is, of course, the last pick of the draft, made wildly popular by Brock Purdy a couple of years ago. The odds usually consist of which position will take home the dubious honor. Here are this year’s odds from a top sportsbook:
QB (+330)
DL or EDGE (+475)
OL (+550)
CB (+650)
WR (+650)
LB (+850)
S (+1000)
RB (+1000)
TE (+1200)
K/P/LS (+1800)
Key Detail: This wager stays alive until that final name is announced, so even if the first round goes according to plan, chaos can reign on Day 3. If you choose, say, “running back,” and the last player selected is indeed a running back, your ticket pays off, even if almost no one else saw it coming.
Other Potential Draft Props
Most sportsbooks won’t stop at the categories above. They’ll offer a wide array of angles including “Team To Make the First Pick,” “Exact Draft Slot,” “First Player Drafted by Position,” and more.
All of these props revolve around the same central idea that there’s no on-field action to analyze, so the betting market hinges on insider clues, scouting reports, and the evolving strategies of each team’s front office.
The rumor mill can run hot, and those last-minute surprises on draft day keep everyone guessing until the commissioner steps to the podium.
Best Long Shot Bets for the 2025 NFL Draft
NFL Draft long shot bets can be subjective, but we’ve narrowed down a few that we like in 2025. It can be smart to lock in your long shots early, because odds can shift dramatically if and when any pre-draft trades are made.
Team To Pick First – Las Vegas Raiders +1200
The Raiders were zoned in on acquiring Matthew Stafford, but those dreams were dashed when the Los Angeles Rams retained the future Hall of Fame quarterback last week. The Silver and Black could now shift their focus to trading up for a QB. While Aaron Rodgers is suddenly in the mix, we still think there is value here at +1200, especially since Tennessee has announced it would listen to offers.
First Overall Pick – Travis Hunter +950
These odds are too bloated not to sprinkle a little lunch money on. By all accounts, Travis Hunter is a generational two-way talent that has drawn comparisons to baseball superstar Shohei Ohtani. He’s an electric player that can do it all and is arguably the best player in the draft.
Team Player Drafted By – Ashton Jeanty, Denver Broncos +650
While many pundits dismiss Jeanty falling to Denver at the 20th pick, there seems to be some momentum that the Broncos will try to trade up. Jeanty is an all-world talent at running back, and the Boise State star would fill a much-needed role on Sean Payton’s squad.
Here are some more NFL Draft props that you will find at select sportsbooks:
- Team-specific props (first drafted position)
- Second overall pick
- Third overall pick
- Fourth overall pick
- To be a top-five pick
- To be a top-ten pick
- First drafted quarterback
- First drafted wide receiver
- First drafted running back
- First drafted offensive lineman
- Total quarterbacks drafted in the first round
- Total running backs drafted in the first round
Best Sportsbooks for NFL Draft Prop Betting
When it comes to NFL Draft prop betting, you can count on the usual suspects to provide the most markets. As we inch closer to draft day, you can expect sportsbooks to beef up their prop offerings.
Here are our top four choices for variety, pricing, and user experience:
DraftKings Sportsbook
DraftKings needs no introduction and is considered one of the top options for prop betting, regardless of sport. It boasts a world-class app, which makes finding props and placing bets a breeze. It’s also one of the fastest sites to release early prop lines and currently has a deeper offering than most books.
You’ll find all the NFL Draft prop staples (first overall pick, exact order picks, first player by positions, etc.) as well as a handful of player parlay specials like the Las Vegas Raiders to draft both Shedeur and Shilo Sanders (+2000).
FanDuel Sportsbook
Like DraftKings, FanDuel cut its teeth in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) space, so it knows its way around prop betting. It’s not quite as quick as DK to release NFL Draft props, but the markets will start picking up closer to April 24.
In recent years, FanDuel has also provided new props after each draft day, offering fresh markets to bettors until the final round.
Caesars Sportsbook
Caesars isn’t always considered to have the friendliest odds, but it does stand out as one of the best sportsbooks for prop betting. For the NFL Draft, you’ll find props like player draft position, team-specific props, first player by position, and much more.
Caesars is also known for its specials and odds boosts for big events. You can expect some excellent promotions for the NFL Draft as it approaches.
BetMGM Sportsbook
BetMGM can be slow to release NFL Draft props, but it’s worth keeping in your rotation as we get closer to the biggest day of the offseason. One of the best things about BetMGM is its frequent ‘odds boost’ and ‘no sweat’ tokens.
The sportsbook unveils new offers daily, and you can count on it firing something special up for the NFL Draft like it does every year.
NFL Draft Betting Strategies
The NFL Draft has become a massive sports betting event in recent years, sometimes to the chagrin of sportsbooks. Unlike a regular NFL, NBA, or MLB game, the NFL Draft has proven difficult to model for sportsbooks. Many books have reported big losses over the last few years, so it’s definitely an opportunity for bettors to find value.
Here are some tips to help you beat the books on draft day.
Follow Mock Drafts and Insider News
The most important prep you can do for the NFL Draft is immerse yourself in insider news circles and reputable mock drafts. Bookmakers rely heavily on insider news from top reporters and analysts, and you should, too.
Find your go-to sources and soak up as much info as you can. When you find an interesting nugget, search the NFL Draft prop markets on your apps to see if there’s a chance to capitalize on it.
When it comes to mock drafts, view as many as possible from people you trust. Sometimes, you’ll see a consensus start to form that you can use to your advantage.
Shop Around for the Best Odds
If you’re a sports bettor, there’s no reason not to be signed up at multiple sportsbooks. Of course, claiming several welcome offers is nice, but the real value comes from line shopping. Sometimes, the variances can be staggering. It’s always worth keeping a few tabs open and comparing pricing at multiple books.
For instance, as of this writing, Travis Hunter is +600 at DraftKings (to go first overall) and +1100 at BetMGM.
Follow the Steam (With Caution)
In sports betting, steam refers to a drastic line movement that appears to come out of the blue. This is usually caused by a piece of insider information or some heavy action from sharp bettors. Either way, if you have your finger on the pulse, you might be able to get an edge before some of the sportsbooks catch up.
However, proceed cautiously, as chasing steam is far from a golden ticket. For example, last year, Will Anderson was the consensus favorite to go second overall until the night before the draft. Then, on draft day, C.J. Stroud’s odds to be taken second shifted from +500 to –2000 in a blink. If you were chasing Anderson Steam, you took a big L last year.
Common Mistakes To Avoid When Betting on NFL Draft Props
While there’s plenty of opportunity to gain an edge when betting on the NFL Draft, there are also some common mistakes to avoid. Here are some things not to do when making your NFL Draft props.
Overreacting To Last-Minute News
Not all pre-draft news should be taken as gospel. Ensure you get your information from reputable sources, as plenty of sensational stories and hype are out there, especially right before the draft. Ground yourself in facts, and don’t get swayed by wild news that isn’t confirmed by reporters that you trust.
Ignoring Line Movement
Line movement, especially significant movement, is usually a signal that sharp bettors have taken a position on a side or there has been an insider report or leaked information from a credible source. Keep an eagle eye on the bets you are targeting, and look at multiple sportsbooks to see if a consensus has formed. On the flip side, sometimes lines can move due to hype. If you can diagnose this, it can create value for you.
Disregarding Team Needs and Fit
It’s easy to get caught up in a player’s talent and rankings, but remember, you are not the GM drafting the player. Consider a team’s needs and culture and analyze whether the player you’re looking at is still a logical choice for that organization. Research the team’s roster and draft history to shed light on whether a certain athlete will be a fit with the franchise.
How Sportsbooks Set & Adjust NFL Draft Prop Odds
Sportsbooks set NFL Draft prop odds using a combination of several factors, including expert analysis, insider information, sharp betting action, expert mock drafts, team needs, player performances, and much more.
The NFL Draft is particularly hard for sportsbooks due to the unpredictability of the draft itself. Many teams keep their cards close to the vest, and bookmakers cannot get an accurate read. Who could have predicted quarterback Michael Penix Jr. would be picked 8th overall by the Atlanta Falcons last year after they had just signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year $180 million contract in the offseason?
Breaking news and sharp bettors can also cause radical line movement, causing sportsbooks to stay on their toes. Furthermore, draft day trades drastically alter multiple markets like overall pick, team-specific props, and more. This is why the NFL Draft is arguably the most difficult sports betting time of the year for the books. Here’s a look at some factors that come into play when sportsbooks set the odds. It’s a good idea for you to be looking at these as well:
- Draft order
- Line movement
- Trades
- Betting activity
- Historical draft trends
- Insider information and news
- Expert mock drafts
- Team needs
- Combine performances
- Team draft history