We typically shy away from issuing air-tight guarantees at Props.com, and the same is true regarding the four-pack of epic matchups on the NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend docket.
But here’s something we’re absolutely confident you can take to the bank: Sunday’s Rams-Bucs showdown will easily clear 13 combined points — otherwise known as the average points scored when Los Angeles/St. Louis and Tampa Bay squared off for the NFC championship 42 and 22 years ago, respectively.
The Rams won 9-0 in January 1980 and 11-6 in January 2000.
With that proclamation out of the way, let’s dive into our favorite NFL betting props for Rams vs. Buccaneers, with supporting arguments provided on both sides — if such claims can be made.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 7 p.m. ET on Jan. 21.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Tom Brady
The Prop: 290.5 passing yards
The Odds: Over -115/Under -115
In five playoff games since arriving in Tampa Bay, Brady has passed for an average of 268.4 yards per contest. During this stretch, he’s only surpassed 290 passing yards once (he threw for 381 in last year’s playoff opener at Washington).
Including last week’s 271-yard effort against Philadelphia in the Wild Card round, Brady has exceeded 290 passing yards in 10 of 18 games this season (five home, five road). Four of those big passing days have come since Week 13: 368 at Atlanta in Week 13; 363 vs. Buffalo in Week 14; 410 at the Jets in Week 17; and 326 vs. the Panthers in Week 18.
So which version of Brady can bettors expect on Sunday — the free-wheeling gunslinger from the regular season, or the recently risk-averse postseason QB? The answer to that question probably lies with his offensive line. The Buccaneers have injury concerns up front, which probably will impact how long Brady will be able to stand in the pocket and push the ball downfield.
It’s worth noting that since Brady’s favorite target, WR Chris Godwin, suffered a season-ending ACL injury against New Orleans in Week 15, Brady has averaged 290.6 yards per game (right on this prop number). He’s gone past 290 just twice, though.
Back in Week 3, Brady threw for 432 yards in the Bucs’ road loss to the Rams — a defeat in which Tampa Bay trailed by 17 points in the second half. The previous time the Bucs incurred a similar deficit? In November 2020, Brady trailed 27-10 at Kansas City in the second half. He finished with 345 passing yards.
Los Angeles Rams: QB Matthew Stafford
The Prop: 24.5 completions
The Odds: Over -120/Under -110
In analyzing last week’s Steelers-Chiefs props, we were reasonably confident that Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger would go Over his 39.5 pass-attempt prop. That confidence was rooted in the (correct) presumption that Big Ben would be flinging the ball around in fourth-quarter garbage time (he finished with 44 attempts).
This particular Stafford prop is tougher to read, simply because the Rams — a 3-point underdog — are expected to keep this game competitive. If the score remains tight throughout, Stafford is less likely to be slinging the football around late in the game.
With that in mind, consider these facts we dug up:
— The Rams only had six games decided by eight or fewer points this season. In those six competitive outings, Stafford finished with 19, 21, 23, 21, 26 and 21 completions. So he topped this total only once (and barely).
— Stafford had 25-plus completions in just three of the Rams’ nine road games (26 twice; 25 once). He averaged just 22.2 completions away from SoFi Stadium. In fact, five of his top seven completion efforts came at home, including a 27-completion day against the Bucs in Week 3.
— Last week, in just his fourth career playoff game, Stafford connected on 13 of 17 pass attempts in a blowout of the Cardinals. How many completions did he have in his three postseason games with the lines (two of which were 17-point losses)? 28, 28 and 18.
All signs point to the Under with this one.
Los Angeles Rams Vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Prop: 23.5 points (Second Half Only)
The Odds: Over -115/Under -105
In their nine road games this season, the Rams cumulatively outscored their opponent 125-120 in the second half. Simple math thus reveals that L.A. and its opponents combined to average 27.2 second-half points when the Rams were a visitor.
Los Angeles scored 10 or more second-half points in eight of those nine roadies; in fact, 54 percent of the squad’s road points came after halftime.
Meanwhile, the Bucs throttled opponents 128-80 in the second half of games at Raymond James Stadium (23.1 ppg combined). However, in putting up those 128 points, Tampa was very inconsistent. For instance, it scored 21-plus points three times (21, 27, 31), but finished with 12 combined second-half points in three other games (3, 9, 0).
Altogether, though, the road-only Rams and home-only Bucs averaged 28.1 points during second-half play, which is comfortably ahead of this total.
Los Angeles Rams: WR Cooper Kupp
The Prop: 100.5 receiving yards
The Odds: Over -115/Under -115
This prop went on a bit of a ride late this week at DraftKings, with the number shifting from 100.5 yards to 98.5 and back to 100.5 on Thursday and Friday. Which tells us that some bettors liked the Under a lot … and then others liked the Over a lot.
Why such a difference of opinion? Well, the folks backing the Over loved the fact that Kupp won the quadruple crown among NFL wideouts this season, leading all comers in catches (145), targets (191), receiving yards (1,947), and receiving touchdowns (16).
Along the way, Kupp toppled this total 11 times, finishing with 108, 163, 130, 156, 115, 122, 129, 123, 136, 109, and 118 yards. And he came real close four other times when he twice accumulated 95 and 96 receiving yards.
But one of those 96-yard efforts came against Tampa Bay back in Week 3. Pretty surprising, given that the Bucs own bottom-10 rankings with targets and receptions yielded to opposing wideouts. Then again, that secondary has played much better of late, holding seven consecutive opponents to less than 260 passing yards.
One more reason to consider the Under: Kupp had just 61 yards last week against Arizona (his lowest output of the season). So he’s gone Over this total just once in his last three outings (following five straight 100-yard-plus receiving games).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TE Rob Gronkowski
The Prop: 5.5 receptions
The Odds: Over -160/Under +120
The Rams have been marginal against opposing tight ends this season, ranking 10th in targets allowed (126), 11th in catches yielded (90), and 15th in receiving yards surrendered (878). Also, opposing tight ends are enjoying a sterling catch-to-target rate of 71.4 percent.
Throw in the fact that Los Angeles is being tasked this week with trying to contain the best tight end of his generation, and you can see why this prop is juiced so heavily to the Over.
Gronkowski closed the regular season with a bang, abusing the Jets and Panthers for 14 catches (seven in each game) for 252 yards. The 32-year-old was kept in check from a yardage perspective last week against Philadelphia (31 yards). However, he caught five of six targets.
Always one of Tom Brady’s favorite (and most trusted) weapons, Gronkowski has become even more important lately as the Bucs have tried to replace the production of one injured wide receiver (Chris Godwin) and another who went AWOL during the Jets game.
But while The Gronk has stepped his game up the last three weeks with those 19 total receptions, the fact remains he’s caught more than five passes just five times in 13 starts. And he only managed four receptions in Tampa’s Week 3 loss in Los Angeles.
Finally, Gronkowski has only cleared this prop three times in his last eight playoff outings (landing right on six catches all three times).
