Welcome to the latest edition of the NFL Divisional Round Prop Bets series, with this one taking a close look at the most intriguing props for Sunday night’s Bills-Chiefs matchup in Kansas City.
We’ll dive into some of the most popular props for this highly anticipated AFC matchup, while offering analysis that supports or strikes down a certain side. We also examine some unique prop specials while hunting for the best possible prices across multiple sportsbooks.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM, and updated as of 2 p.m. ET on Jan. 20.
Buffalo Bills: QB Josh Allen
The Prop: 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
The Odds: Over -150/Under +115 (at BetMGM)
Let’s flashback to the first time these teams met earlier in the season: Back on Oct. 10, the Bills traveled to Arrowhead Stadium and rolled to a convincing 38-20 victory. Josh Allen didn’t need to do much, as Buffalo jumped out to a 24-10 second-quarter lead and never was threatened from there. Still, the Bills’ quarterback posted three passing touchdowns while going 15-for-26 for 315 yards.
It’s safe to say that Allen will have far more passing attempts this time around, especially while trying to keep pace with a Kansas City offense that is firing on all cylinders at the moment. (The Chiefs are averaging 36.5 points over their last five games, scoring at least 28 in each contest.)
It doesn’t hurt that Allen is brimming with confidence after completely destroying the Patriots in the Wild Card round last weekend. He passed for 308 yards and threw more touchdown passes (five) than incompletions (four, on 25 attempts).
The Kansas City defense has improved since the last time these two teams played. However, Allen has thrown for two or more touchdowns in five of his last six outings. He also tossed two TDs in last year’s AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead.
There’s some juice (-150) to the over here, but it certainly looks like that juice is worth the squeeze.
Editor’s Note: New to NFL props? Check out our complete NFL Props Betting Guide to get up to speed!
Buffalo Bills: RB Devin Singletary
The Prop: First Touchdown Scorer
The Odds: +900 (at BetMGM)
Of all the longshot NFL Divisional Round prop bets, Singletary’s first touchdown prop might hold the most appeal.
Admittedly, first touchdown props are risky and somewhat random — hence the large payout attached to them. However, Singletary has several things working in his favor to find paydirt first on Sunday.
For starters, the Buffalo running back is no stranger to the end zone, scoring seven touchdowns over his last five games. That includes two trips to the promised land against the Patriots last week.
So it makes sense to consider Singletary as the first touchdown scorer Sunday. (For that matter, his “anytime touchdown” prop at BetMGM holds some merit as well.)
BetMGM currently has the best price for Singletary to score the game’s first TD (+900). By comparison, Singletary is +750 at FanDuel and +850 at DraftKings.
Kansas City Chiefs: QB Patrick Mahomes
The Prop: 22.5 Rushing Yards
The Odds: Over -130/Under -102 (at FanDuel)
The other quarterback in this game is known for using his legs, but don’t count out Mahomes to rip off a few solid runs and hit the Over on this rushing-yards prop.
Mahomes finished with 61 rushing yards on eight carries against the Bills back in October. Will he replicate that number Sunday? Unlikely. Can he eclipse this 22.5-yard prop at FanDuel Sportsbook? Absolutely. Just look at Mahomes’ recent game log: He’s gone over this rushing mark in four of his last five games, while averaging 28 rushing yards per contest.
We’ve seen this scenario numerous times over the years: Quarterbacks don’t necessarily like to run the ball in the regular season, as they don’t want to get injured. However, things change when their season is on the line in the postseason.
There’s a decent chance Mahomes follows that trend Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs: WR Tyreek Hill
The Prop: 70.5 Receiving Yards
The Odds: Over -115/Under -115 (at BetMGM)
Hill has been dinged up of late, but he looked pretty good in last Sunday’s Wild Card rout of Pittsburgh. He was moving around without a limp while making moves in open space, showing no ill effects from the heel injury he suffered in pregame warmups at Denver in Week 18.
Hill being at (or at least near) 100 percent heading into this NFL Divisional Round game against the Bills makes this receiving yards prop interesting. That said, Hill only posted seven catches for 63 yards against the Bills in the regular season. He’s also stayed Under this total in four straight games, while averaging only 29.5 yards per contest.
Even if you throw out the Week 18 game at Denver (when he was clearly injured), Hill’s averaging just 39 yards in his past three contests.
According to BetPrep’s handy player page, Hill has topped this number just once in five games against top defenses in 2021-22. Well, the Bills have the NFL’s No. 1 defense — and that defense is certainly capable of keeping the Chiefs’ game-breaker Under 71 receiving yards.
