My favorite game of the weekend, besides watching my Eagles play, is easily the Browns-Chiefs game at 4:25 EST.
A rematch of the AFC Divisional Round, which had the Chiefs winning 22-17, has an opening line of Kansas City -6.
I like the Browns to cover the +6, as they are one of my favorites to win the Super Bowl. This is a team that had an elite offense last season, led by the best offensive line in football. What puts them over the edge is the balance they seem sure to accomplish. Cleveland added a bevy of strong defenders to shore up their one vulnerability, most notably safety John Johnson and EDGE Jadeveon Clowney.
Trends Pointing Towards Cleveland
Props.com, along with BetPrep, give you plenty of betting trends to consider for spread picks, over/unders, and player props.
The game trends have a few that stick out that push this Browns pick over the edge.
For starters, the host Chiefs are 2-5 ATS against the Browns in their last 7 games. That includes the playoff game they played in January when Kansas City failed to cover the 8-point spread.
In general, Kansas City has struggled at home against the spread, 1-5 in their last six.
Cleveland started to establish a bit of road dominance as 2020 wound down: the Browns are 4-1 on the road in their last five games, according to BetPrep.
The Browns Have Advantages In The Trenches
Beyond the trends, what pushes me to bet Cleveland is their dominant offensive and defensive lines.
We’ll start with the defensive line, which has star EDGE rusher Myles Garrett – one of the favorites to win Defensive Player of the Year.
If you remember why Kansas City struggled against Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl, it was because their offensive line was a turnstile, leaving Patrick Mahomes to run for his life all game.
The Chiefs made steps to remedy that, but it’s no sure thing. What is a sure thing is Garrett’s ability to get to the passer. With Clowney involved and a much-improved secondary blanketing the weapons in the passing game, there’s reason to believe Cleveland can slow down this Chiefs offense.
The bigger advantage is the Browns offensive line, a dominant unit that powers the league’s best rushing duo. Both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt had stellar 2020 seasons, and both should have their way against a Kansas City defense that was one of the worst at stopping the run last year.
With advantages along the line, and trends supporting the pick, bet Cleveland to cover the +6, and consider taking them at their Moneyline odds, currently +225.
