At the moment, the NFL MVP betting race also doubles as a beauty pageant for quarterbacks overseeing Super Bowl-contending teams. This, of course, is hardly a recent trend.
Of the last 14 MVP recipients, Vikings tailback Adrian Peterson is the only non-quarterback to win the award. Peterson took the honor in 2012, rushing for 2,097 yards — missing Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record by only 8 yards — and 12 touchdowns, just one year removed from an ACL tear.
With NFL Week 8 set to launch Thursday with a marquee matchup featuring the reigning MVP and the current MVP favorite, Props.com checks in on the various NFL MVP betting odds.
Odds are courtesy of BetMGM, Circa Sports, DraftKings, FanDuel, and PointsBet USA, and updated as of 10 a.m. EST Oct. 28.
QB Kyler Murray (Cardinals)
Record: 7-0 (1st in NFC West)
MVP Odds: BetMGM +350; Circa Sports +375; DraftKings +450; FanDuel +450; PointsBet USA +375
2021 Stats: 2,002 passing yards, 20 total TDs, 5 INTs, 73.5% completion rate
Would Murray be an NFL MVP front-runner if the Cardinals weren’t riding high at a league-best 7-0 heading into Thursday’s showdown at home against the Packers? It’s a fair question, considering Murray has two games with zero or one touchdown. He also has averaged only 21.5 completions over the last four weeks, which somewhat minimizes the impact of leading all primary starting quarterbacks (sorry, Andy Dalton and Taysom Hill) in completion percentage .
Here’s another nitpick: Murray only has three rushing touchdowns in 2021, well off last year’s pace when he had 11.
To be clear: Murray definitely warrants inclusion in the MVP conversation. But as well as he’s played, he’s also received a lot of help from his defense, which is allowing only 13.6 points per game since Week 3.
How he performs under the bright Thursday night lights against reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers will go a long way toward determining if Murray is the clear-cut MVP favorite this time next week or just among a cluster of co-favorites.
QB Josh Allen (Bills)
Record: 4-2 (1st in AFC East)
MVP Odds: BetMGM +450; Circa Sports +450; DraftKings +400; FanDuel +300; PointsBet USA +450
2021 Stats: 1,723 passing yards, 17 total TDs, 3 INTs, 64.8% completion rate
If Allen had converted on his 4th-and-1 run in the final minute of Buffalo’s 34-31 Monday night loss to the Titans in Week 6 instead of being the victim of a poorly timed slip-and-fall, the Bills quarterback would be the consensus choice for early MVP.
In his last four games, Allen has averaged 319 passing yards and 3.5 total touchdowns while completing 69.8 percent of his passes.
Despite the setback at Tennessee, Buffalo (4-2) is the co-favorite to win the Super Bowl at DraftKings along with Tom Brady’s Buccaneers. Both are +550.
QB Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
Record: 5-1 (1st in NFC East)
MVP Odds: BetMGM +400; Circa Sports +500; DraftKings +500; FanDuel +450; PointsBet USA +475
2021 Stats: 1,813 passing yards, 16 TDs, 4 INTs, 73.1% completion rate
There are two types of Dak Prescotts in the NFL universe. Both are equally lovable, but just one can take home the MVP trophy.
The conservative Dak Prescott merely averaged 27 pass attempts from Weeks 2-5, a time when the Cowboys were often playing from ahead and coasting to victory.
The less-inhibited Dak Prescott appeared in Week 1 (at Tampa Bay) and Week 6 (at New England), when he completed 71.6% of his passes (78-for-109) for 484 yards and six touchdowns in games that demanded valiant fourth-quarter comebacks.
Bottom line: Short of Dallas winning the NFC East by a mile and clinching home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, it’ll be tough for Conservative Dak to claim the MVP. Uninhibited Dak must feed his wild side, too.
QB Tom Brady (Buccaneers)
Record: 6-1 (1st in NFC South)
MVP Odds: BetMGM +700; Circa Sports +500; DraftKings +750; FanDuel +550; PointsBet USA +600
2021 Stats: 2,275 passing yards, 22 total TDs, 3 INTs, 67.0% completion rate
Brady has captured three NFL MVP honors in his decorated career, posting averages of 4,427 yards passing and 39.3 passing touchdowns in those award-winning campaigns (2007, 2010, 2017).
In those three years, Brady’s Patriots also enjoyed a cumulative regular-season record of 43-5.
Through seven weeks, Brady leads all NFL comers in passing yards and passing touchdowns (21 — he also has one on the ground). The 44-year-old also has an outside shot at a 70 percent completion rate (which might be the only bucket-list item missing from Brady’s absurd résumé).
So, spare us the played-out whispers of the GOAT being too old to compete with a younger crop of MVP hopefuls. Brady’s the youngest-looking 40-something celebrity since Dick Clark in 1977, coincidentally the year Tommy was born.
QB Matthew Stafford (Rams)
Record: 6-1 (2nd in NFC West)
MVP Odds: BetMGM +800; Circa Sports +500; DraftKings +800; FanDuel +1000; PointsBet USA +700
2021 Stats: 2,172 passing yards, 19 TDs, 4 INTs, 69.3% completion rate
Technically, Stafford merits credit for another fourth-quarter-comeback victory — the 32nd of his career — in last week’s 28-19 win over the Lions, even though the Rams never trailed by more than three after the midpoint of the second quarter.
This uncanny knack for engineering comebacks was Stafford’s calling card in Detroit (2009-20), and it might be his most palatable path to MVP fame in Los Angeles. Just one problem: The Rams don’t figure to be needing a lot of fourth-quarter comebacks the rest of the way.
